Hide Idle (>14 d.) Chans
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sad235szd: hello dear fellas!
asciilifeform: who might you be, sad235szd ?
asciilifeform: sad235szd: and what brings you to #a ?
sad235szd: life, but mostly your works and ideas, i am fascinated
asciilifeform: a, so via asciilifeform's www ? which works, concretely, interest you ?
asciilifeform: sad235szd: there's a log, going back many yrs, feel free to make use of the search.
asciilifeform must bbl
sad235szd: your, like in 'all of you' i meant, yes i am reading the log from time to time these/last days
billymg wonders how long before this is standard across *all goxes
billymg: also impressed at the reich's efficiency in suppressing the exchange rate (i believe signpost shared this or a similar chart before but can't find the log line)
billymg: switch to monthly candles to see the longterm history, shows quite clearly the exchange rate relative to the amount of printolade never left the 2017 range
sad235szd: twatter censoring hard, too now that the indian boi is in charge heh
asciilifeform: sad235szd: iirc folx have accused szabo since '11 or so
asciilifeform regards the 'who was shitoshi' q as mostly uninteresting
dulapbot: Logged on 2021-12-29 12:42:32 sad235szd: twatter censoring hard, too now that the indian boi is in charge heh
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-29#1070003 << reich pumped it, which makes it trivial for'em to then dump it
dulapbot: Logged on 2021-12-29 10:37:34 billymg: also impressed at the reich's efficiency in suppressing the exchange rate (i believe signpost shared this or a similar chart before but can't find the log line)
dulapbot: Logged on 2021-11-22 13:23:33 asciilifeform: ( the lizard strategy is interesting imho: to mask the inflation shelter aspect of btc by artificially pumping it up and 'burying' the rise with paperola)
asciilifeform: (and in the process trigger margin calls, amplifying the waterfall effect)
dulapbot: Logged on 2021-06-10 10:09:26 asciilifeform: gregorynyssa: successful paperization requires the paper-buying chumps to perceive it as 'just as good or better than real thing'. e.g. paper gold/btc/etc can be leveraged (can borrow against it and allow it to auto-liquidate if margin called).
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-29#1070000 << asciilifeform half-expected that *already* can only withdraw from a gox to anuther gox. ( if not yet -- seems inevitable )
asciilifeform: $ticker btc usd
busybot: Current BTC price in USD: $47679.08
asciilifeform: !w poll
watchglass: Polling 14 nodes...
watchglass: 205.134.172.26:8333 : Alive: (0.021s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=716293
watchglass: 205.134.172.6:8333 : (172-6.core.ai.net) Alive: (0.084s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=716293
watchglass: 205.134.172.4:8333 : (172-4.core.ai.net) Alive: (0.144s) V=70001 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.7.0.1/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716293
watchglass: 205.134.172.28:8333 : Alive: (0.083s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=716293 (Operator: whaack)
watchglass: 54.39.156.171:8333 : (ns562940.ip-54-39-156.net) Alive: (0.152s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716293
watchglass: 208.94.240.42:8333 : Alive: (0.193s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716293
watchglass: 143.202.160.10:8333 : Alive: (0.276s) V=70001 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.7.0.1/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716293
watchglass: 205.134.172.27:8333 : Alive: (0.276s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716293 (Operator: asciilifeform)
watchglass: 54.38.94.63:8333 : (ns3140226.ip-54-38-94.eu) Alive: (0.233s) V=88888 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.8.88.88/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716293
watchglass: 94.176.238.102:8333 : (2ppf.s.time4vps.cloud) Alive: (0.306s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=715925
watchglass: 82.79.58.192:8333 : (static-82-79-58-192.rdsnet.ro) Alive: (0.332s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=715925
watchglass: 103.36.92.112:8333 : (terebe.ns01.net) Alive: (0.547s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716293
watchglass: 75.106.222.93:8333 : Alive: (0.505s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=716293
watchglass: 71.191.220.241:8333 : Violated BTC Protocol: Bad header length! (Operator: asciilifeform)
sad235szd: soylent green is ppl ((
sad235szd: asciilifeform: it was acc of the mrna inventor which was saying stuff and such
asciilifeform: these folx can get the hell off twatter et al whenever they like
asciilifeform: there's 0 point in being there.
asciilifeform: (ditto re: the *readers*. wtf, reading reich rag and 'surprised' that censored?)
sad235szd: yup, but i still think its useful for 'mass-spreading info' n so to the 'most' of people
sad235szd: xaxa
asciilifeform: only 'useful' if yer 'mass info' 100% alignes w/ partyline
asciilifeform: (and yer 'most' people are the kind who like to read reich censored rag)
asciilifeform neither writes to nor reads twatter et al, has no intention to start
sad235szd: aggree
sad235szd: stasik
signpost: sad235szd: are you greek? curious because of the "xaxa"
signpost: guess could be ru too.
dulapbot: Logged on 2021-12-29 10:37:34 billymg: also impressed at the reich's efficiency in suppressing the exchange rate (i believe signpost shared this or a similar chart before but can't find the log line)
signpost: billymg: the one you linked is better, looks like. it's always unclear to me (by way of intentional obscuring) which measure to use for monetary mass.
sad235szd: signpost: no
sad235szd i'm a just bulgarian guy
signpost: ah, maybe say a bit more about yourself.
signpost is a coder/entrepreneur from austin tx
sad235szd: well, english is not my main language, so i think that's enough, (for now?) kinda hard to express correctly etc
signpost: hardly a thing to hold against someone. the native speakers can barely express themselves in it.
signpost: but as ya like.
sad235szd: i like to listen to rap 'music', a little bit of data hoarder but just a man, i'm not interesting thoo
sad235szd lives in Sofia
signpost likes to say that he's a bag of shit and salt water with delusions of grandeur. keeps me grounded.
signpost: what do you do for a living?
sad235szd: trying to 'think' out of the b0xx, ehm also servicing phones/laptops n shit
sad235szd: various kinds of other things too difficult to say/tell unilateraly
billymg: signpost: ah, yup, that was the one
asciilifeform considering a cmd for pest spec, 'SLAVE <handle>', for use w/ bots such as billymg's; sets a condition where broadcasts received via <nick> register as immediates
asciilifeform: would eliminate the imho clunky situation where errything the bot logs is marked e.g. foo[billymg]
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-29#1070056 << nfi wai folx interested in the Official monetarymass figure, its relationship to reality is unknown but prolly no greater than that of e.g. Official inflation stats
dulapbot: Logged on 2021-12-29 14:12:13 signpost: billymg: the one you linked is better, looks like. it's always unclear to me (by way of intentional obscuring) which measure to use for monetary mass.
dulapbot: (trilema) 2014-07-03 asciilifeform: overfulfilled. In any case, sixty-two millions was no nearer the truth than fifty-seven millions, or than 145 millions. Very likely no boots had been produced at all. Likelier still, nobody knew how many had been produced, much less cared. All one knew was that every quarter astronomical numbers of boots were produced on paper, while perhaps half the population of Oceania went barefoot.'
dulapbot: (trilema) 2014-07-03 asciilifeform: 'But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their re
dulapbot: (trilema) 2014-07-03 asciilifeform: ctified version. A great deal of the time you were expected to make them up out of your head. For example, the Ministry of Plenty's forecast had estimated the output of boots for the quarter at 145 million pairs. The actual output was given as sixty-two millions. Winston, however, in rewriting the forecast, marked the figure down to fifty-seven millions, so as to allow for the usual claim that the quota had been
dulapbot: (trilema) 2014-07-03 asciilifeform: overfulfilled. In any case, sixty-two millions was no nearer the truth than fifty-seven millions, or than 145 millions. Very likely no boots had been produced at all. Likelier still, nobody knew how many had been produced, much less cared. All one knew was that every quarter astronomical numbers of boots were produced on paper, while perhaps half the population of Oceania went barefoot.'
signpost doesn't worry about it too much. denominating wealth in BTC, and if that fails, whatever, I'll join the nearest militia/gang.
signpost: and barring that die like everyone does regardless.
signpost digs for an old thread he was reading recently
signpost: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/trilema/2015-04-10#1095264 << only really track any of these fake economic stats as proxy for how far along to this.
dulapbot: (trilema) 2015-04-10 ascii_field: Chillum: consider the question of what kind of social structure has to be in place for the gold chain, etc. to remain yours to trade
asciilifeform: signpost: at the risk of pedantry -- asciilifeform aint even convinced the #s are any good for ~that~ :
asciilifeform: signpost: quite possibly, they could change by any factor you like and life will remain essentially same as before. or, conversely, stay same, but at the same time -- tanks in streets.
signpost: yeah perhaps.
asciilifeform: fwiw su collapse wasn't especially related to any published #s
asciilifeform: the amt of effort which goes into fiddling the Official #s is not on acct of any physical effect of said manipulation. similarly to how the # of monk-hours spent in prayer in 1100s was not a metric connected with any physical effect.
signpost: what was interesting was that in billymg's graph the value of btc as a proportion of monetary mass (however inaccurately expressed) has been remaining roughly level for some time.
signpost unfortunately groggy from last night's gas leak episode and mild covid, so probably oughta shelve interpretation until brain's fully in gear.
signpost: I'd think there must be a great deal of BTC buying going on continuously if this proportion is remaining level while the denominator is exploding upward.
signpost: tldr: get 'em while they're hot.
signpost: probably the paperization of this "trade" is what undermines the thought, that printola can be aimed at causing futures ETFs to dump whenever the regime likes, and the redditards on exchanges will likewise panic.
signpost hopes there is another such panic soon, would be nice to separate such folks from their coin.
mats: its a dumb correlation that doesn't mean anything
mats: bitcoin is still tiny compared to the rest of the financial universe
mats: why would you add m1 to m2 ???
mats: do you know that m2 includes m1?
signpost: I did not, so there you go.
mats: i feel a little bad about being aggressive, but there's a pattern of og bitcoiners making poorly formed claims about how things work
mats: and maybe theyve gotten used to it because other people who dont know better have given them the benefit of the doubt
mats: because they think youre rich and therefore competent
signpost: nah, just trying to make sense of a mad world, man
signpost: doesn't mean it will
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-12-29#1070102 << at the risk of repeating self, it aint clear to asciilifeform that m1, m_n etc tell us anyffin useful re 'how things work'
dulapbot: Logged on 2021-12-29 20:36:50 mats: i feel a little bad about being aggressive, but there's a pattern of og bitcoiners making poorly formed claims about how things work
asciilifeform: they're reich.fictions.
asciilifeform: while mats is technically correct, imho is rather like pointing out that light sword in star wars is exactly 1.8 metres or whatnot
mats: its not useful to call them fictions without explaining why you think it is
mats: everyone on the planet with money that has a vested interest in useful figures so they can monitor their business concerns, are all in on it?
asciilifeform: mats: what next, 'explain why you think' reich.inflation stat is fiction ?
asciilifeform: is mats's null hypothesis really that 'reich stats are troo' ?
mats: well, go on then
asciilifeform: mats: outta curiosity, do you believe e.g. stats published by pyongyang? (if not, why not?)
mats: every dealer with used car inventory is lying?
mats: everyone in the auto supply chain is in on the fiction?
mats: they've all hidden parts and cars in secret hangars?
asciilifeform: how does auto supply play into m1, m_n etc ?
signpost: you seem upset mats.
signpost: perhaps trying to raise awareness of groupthink you've seen on twitter.
mats: you mentioned inflation, which in usa refers to the consumer price inflation
mats: the 'all the stats are lying' is a useful shit test for people willing to swallow a lie
mats: or are we going to revisit the mp era again?
asciilifeform: mats: it aint a seekrit that the Official reich.inflation quite overtly excludes almost errybody's major expenses (housing, medical, collegism, etc)
signpost: mats: like I said, you're trying to start a fight with someone in your head.
mats: i understand that the way various items are weighted in cpi is opaque
asciilifeform: mats: asciilifeform's assertion aint 'they're lying', but that they've no obvious relation to physical reality, 'not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie'
dulapbot: (trilema) 2014-07-03 asciilifeform: 'But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their re
asciilifeform: mats: there's nuffin opaque about the deliberate exclusion of e.g. housing cost
asciilifeform: (if it were to be included, the Official inflation would be 20-30% & climbing)
asciilifeform: usg would then have to index e.g. pensions to that, and would be zimbabwe broke by next mon.
mats: its not excluded lol
mats: you could truthfully say that you think its understated, but it is not excluded
asciilifeform: mats: this is rather obvious hairsplitting, and if somebody were doing it at you you'd balk
signpost: bwahaha their official word is that only hypothetical rent is included because the rest is an investment instrument.
signpost: fuck 'em all.
signpost: mats: it would satisfy you in some way if I accepted ^ as sane?
asciilifeform: 'Housing units are not in the CPI market basket.'
signpost: CPI samples are selected in stages. The sample of 87 CPI pricing areas was selected
signpost: first for use by all components of the CPI. The pricing areas are metropolitan areas
signpost: and smaller urban places selected to represent 38 CPI areas of the urban United
signpost: States.
signpost: they pick from wherever they like, I'm sure according to a standard of "fairness" which unweights the places people actually do productive work.
signpost had enough of this fine govt website for today.
asciilifeform: the quickest way to see what reich stats are worth is to look at own wallet. asciilifeform's expenses in past 2y up considerably farther from the Official 6% or what was it.
asciilifeform: 'your lying eyes'
signpost: and if you look just below it's using the rent notion I linked.
signpost: and the sampling method.
signpost: at any rate, if mats wants to feel safe in the hands of his government, welcome to it.
mats: they get to these figures by surveying homeowners and renters, sure, that's problematic
mats: but you could say that, if you knew that was the case
signpost: I do not aspire to refine my recommendations for public policy.
mats: if you want to reach other people who might in principle would share your view of reality, you have to start with facts
mats: in principle share*
signpost: all I'm doing is tolerating your projections of what that may be.
signpost: my first word in the thread was how unclear all of it is, not an interpretation of the screen-squiggles.
signpost: anyway, perhaps mats can be bothered to make a more fundamental point. the current back-and-forth is pretty tedious.
mats: said what i meant to say, so i'll leave it here
signpost: mats: as for "revisit the mp era" perhaps this will clarify a bit http://ossasepia.com/2021/11/16/the-tragic-flaw-in-modern-interpretation/#comment-15771
signpost: anyway, I like being called out dumb when merited. by far the best feature of TMSR.
mats: its easy to misunderstand what the measures are telling you if you don't care to look at exactly how it works
mats: usg has changed the calculation of cpi multiple times
mats: looking at the curve literally isn't useful at all
signpost: mats: not being glib here, but I'd genuinely read you on it if you wrote.
signpost: everyone accumulating his own pile of trivia and expecting that the other made same pile doesn't make for much.
mats: i've repeated some of the republic bullshit to actual finance people and learned very quickly how much of a retarded follower that i am
signpost has observed several folks just stick a minus sign in front of the "republic bullshit" and think they've fixed their heads.
signpost: at any rate, happy to hear what nuance there may be in CPI, if you were to inform me.
signpost: less happy to be a punching bag for all of TMSR philosophy, though I'm working to unwind some of that myself.
signpost: as it relates to mp, much of it probably has to be taken as propaganda intending to separate folks from the empire.
signpost figures also when people hear "propaganda" they think synonym for lies, and it's a completely other thing.
signpost: but anyway.
asciilifeform: from asciilifeform's pov, is very strange to see this kinda thing framed as a 'lol, mp ideology!' when can see not only own, but literally errybody in meatwot with palpably lighter wallets erry yr since 4evah ago on acct of prices
asciilifeform: 'but you aint Typical Konsoomers' 'introduce me to a Typical Konsoomer plz'
mats: cpi isn't for individual consumption
asciilifeform: 'avg. temperature in the hospital is only up 0.1 degree' 'but errybody is dying of typhus' 'so ok, we weigh the temp of the morgue occupants too, explain why shouldn't'
mats: if you want to look at how certain things have changed, there is e.g. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa
signpost: is the summary here "mats said memes from tmsr and got smacked by banker friends"?
asciilifeform: avg. temp incl. morgue.
asciilifeform: 'let's include meth belt in house price index' yea
mats: there are housing prices indices for regions
mats: so you can exclude meth belt.
asciilifeform: mats: iirc you've lived in a # of locales in usa, and know that 'meth belt' is not geographically confined, can walk to outpost of it from almost anywhere
signpost: this is going to be a really stupid thread as long as mats refuses to state the case he wishes to make.
signpost: FRED's a decent source of economic stats?
asciilifeform: near as i can tell, the case is a variant of 'stop believing your lying eyes'
mats: the meth problem has really accelerated over the last decade
asciilifeform: i can look at own lightening wallet in one hand, and the Official stats in other hand, and guess which one will believe.
mats: i was very clear, not sure how to elaborate further without more tedious back-and-forth
asciilifeform finds this experience surreal, in the old sovok nobody one'd be likely to meet entertained belief in Official stats
asciilifeform: in the current reich, otoh, constantly running into such folx
signpost: asciilifeform: look it's our first collapse!
asciilifeform: signpost: 3rd, arguably
signpost: we're forgetful
asciilifeform: fdr's, then nixon's
signpost: mats: you have an ideological axe to grind behind the particulars. which is fine, I also.
signpost: but you should say it.
mats: i did. 'lying by statistics' is a real thing that happens, but you gotta be able to say what the lies are
signpost: or I could guess, but when you were doing that my direction was grating as all hell.
asciilifeform can't speak for mats, but suspects he is suffering from same malaise as e.g. asciilifeform's mother. i.e. doesn't like, ~really~ doesn't like the idea that he's living in a scaled-up pyongyang, hence 'it aint so'
signpost: mats: why would I spend effort trying to understand which of the US government's pronouncements are lies and which true?
mats: if i can't explain something to a first year student, i haven't really understood
signpost: mats: if we have good measures of inflation, what's the best way to normalize BTC price for it?
mats: i don't understand the question at all
mats: btc flows have nothing to do with consumer price inflation
mats: and i can't think of how the flows relate to monetary inflation either
signpost: you're kind of a miserable guy, in the end.
mats: like, maybe in a hand-wavey way
signpost: "hm what's this chart mean" "the government's economic statistics are reliable" "solve a problem with them" "what kind of an idiot asks this question'
signpost yawns
asciilifeform suspects 'religious' difference w/ mats, i.e. incompat. null hypothesese, will leave off for nao
asciilifeform: may just as readily ask dpb to explain why christmas celebrators are damned to 9th circle of hell
signpost: it's more like dpb importantly feigning masturbatory shock that you don't already know.
signpost: and even he doesn't do that.
asciilifeform: this thread will be a lulzy reread when usd goes ruble circa '93
asciilifeform: (without anyffin in the way of 'warning' via 'm1' 'm2' etc)
signpost: if the USSR had invented MMT it'd be sending generation ships to alpha centauri today.
signpost: "modern monetary theory"
mats: you could say that usg backstopping bonds has driven yields into the ground, and that this has sparked a rush into other asset classes like housing and bitcoin by allocators in search of yield
asciilifeform: hilariously was hrusch who 'drank the koolaid' and 1st demanded that the books actually balance (despite operating a command economy, with money as effectively ritual object), nearly tanked then
asciilifeform: mats: 'yield' in this case is 'keeping yer money'
mats: you could say that the decline of usd as a share of foreign reserves held by central banks has fallen to ~20y lows, sitting at 59%, and that the continuation of this pattern could lead to more flows into btc and eventual downgrading of usd
signpost: entirely reasonable to say that current BTC exchange rate really only reflects that it's the ultimate speculative object in a spectrum of them, if I interpret correctly.
signpost: seems both this can be true and that long-term holding addresses continue to accumulate, which appears also to be true.
signpost: I think I said way above that I hope the BTC speculative bubble pops, selfishly.
signpost is curious what other TMSR propaganda he sees in my thinking.
mats: the spot price is a terrible signal
dulapbot: Logged on 2021-11-22 13:23:33 asciilifeform: ( the lizard strategy is interesting imho: to mask the inflation shelter aspect of btc by artificially pumping it up and 'burying' the rise with paperola)
mats: one of many reasons it swings so heavily is because bitcoins and the rest of the cryptoasset universe trade 24/7 and are also highly liquid
mats: if you're lucky, cryptoasset to cryptoasset exchange can take as little as an hour, you'd be lucky to get a day in the rest of the fossilised financial universe
signpost: asciilifeform: yeah, the "no spot ETFs" position gives that away.
asciilifeform: (is wai they legalized 'institutional' leveraged-maggotting on top of btc)
mats: i find that complaining about bitcoin volatility is a lot like being mad that an airplane is flying instead of taxiing on the ground
asciilifeform: imho flew quite well enuff in '11
asciilifeform: pre-'institutionalization'
mats: institutions have barely gotten started
mats: slow moving ships, those
asciilifeform counts the usg-tolerated goxes , which buy & sell largely imaginary coins, dispense leverage, etc. under institutions
asciilifeform: not merely e.g. investment banks
asciilifeform must bbl
signpost: yeah, I don't think it's surprising to say the game of financial corewars going on in crypto generates the volatility, and that this will go up.
mats: the 24/7 trading and liquidity is why volatility is so high, whenever the wind blows, folk can make emotional trades
signpost doesn't either expect to be a part of a revolutionary something which removes the folks kicking in the pool
signpost: long-BTC in my mind is a bet that the US meets its 1991 moment in my lifetime, and I don't care what the price is meanwhile.
signpost: I don't trade.
mats: meanwhile equities trading is highly compressed into ~30 hours a week
mats: anyway, good chat, afk
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