asciilifeform: !q uptime
snsabot: asciilifeform: time since my last reconnect : 14d 10h 56m
gregorynyssa: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-06-08#1038467 << Mr Yarvin mentioned in a fairly recent article that any coin can be turned into a security if some wealthy person or group creates a second coin and declares that the two shall be pegged.
snsabot: Logged on 2021-06-08 16:06:59 asciilifeform: upstack -- imho bitcoin 'went only half-way' -- we don't know what a 100% debasement-proof currency would look like; would need to be paperization-resistant, not merely publicly-ledgered and deterministically-inflating.
gregorynyssa: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-06-09#1038521 << is there any remaining hope of bringing back 1980s style FGPAs?
snsabot: Logged on 2021-06-09 12:58:36 asciilifeform: verisimilitude: i'd much like a FPGA where each LUT has a pixel output. but not expecting such a thing to be made (even if moore's law were not dead)
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-06-10#1038524 << this is merely a restatement of the problem -- paperization. i rec to reread yest.'s thrd re theoretical possibility of solutions to same.
snsabot: Logged on 2021-06-10 02:25:02 gregorynyssa: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-06-08#1038467 << Mr Yarvin mentioned in a fairly recent article that any coin can be turned into a security if some wealthy person or group creates a second coin and declares that the two shall be pegged.
asciilifeform: gregorynyssa: successful paperization requires the paper-buying chumps to perceive it as 'just as good or better than real thing'. e.g. paper gold/btc/etc can be leveraged (can borrow against it and allow it to auto-liquidate if margin called).
shinohai: Just when I think there can't *possibly* be another stupid BIP proposed for prb: http://anyprevout.xyz/
asciilifeform: gregorynyssa: if you can somehow interfere with this (i.e. set things up so that holding the real thing confers advantages which paper cannot) then have a chance at a depaperized coin.
asciilifeform: shinohai: seems like yet-another anyone-can-spend crapola
asciilifeform: (how many of these are there in current prb? at least 2?)
shinohai: afaik 2, I must say I can't wrap head around how one can sign a tx without reference to an output.
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-06-10#1038526 << ice40 has moar LUTs than any '80s fpga. and documented. i suspect you meant to ask '1980s FPGAs with the LUT count of high-end xilinx from 2021'
snsabot: Logged on 2021-06-10 02:27:55 gregorynyssa: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-06-09#1038521 << is there any remaining hope of bringing back 1980s style FGPAs?
asciilifeform: shinohai: they aint signed, recall, they're segshit-'signed'.
asciilifeform: this can mean whatever the segshit perps want it to mean.
asciilifeform: if tomorrow gavin & co decide that a valid segshit signature is either the expected one, or with clitler's key, it shall be so (for prb users). they'll eat it up.
shinohai: The taproot thing looks likely to pass in next 200 or so blocks, so all that mETHereum goodness coming soon to a prb near you.
asciilifeform: shinohai: i don't use prb anywhere, for many yrs nao (at one time i had a remaining prb box, for compat. testing; ssd smoked, and i did not bother recreating it) so nfi how many of these nao, and what sorta bombs therein
shinohai: I fiddled with luke-jr's "knots" prb for a while for testing, but it seems broken now that Gentoo removed libressl compat upstream.
asciilifeform: shinohai: i can't think of any reason to bother
shinohai: I just wanted to troll him awhile and see if anything interesting was within not in vanilla prb. I got +b'd pretty quick from #bitcoin-gentoo tho. xD
asciilifeform: shinohai: i very rarely think about prb nowadays; when happen to, is usually re: the conundrum of 'is it possible to induce miner cartel into claiminig the anyone-can-spend outputs'
asciilifeform: prb is interesting imho only from an exploitation pov. (and even there, not very, because -- being a usg 'NOBUS' product -- set up in such a way that exploiting is very expensive)
shinohai: Maybe can find answer when geothermal mining cartel comes to El Salvador, can bribe MS-13 miners to perform experiments.
asciilifeform: shinohai: there's some missing piece , or already long ago 'experiment' would have been performed.
asciilifeform: the chinese miners, for instance, are (by asciilifeform's observations) so dysfunctional, that it is even conceivable that they simply do not know how to craft the necessary tx !
asciilifeform: ( you can't do it w/ prb, unsurprisingly )
asciilifeform: prb won't relay it, either.
asciilifeform: (or mine it. supposing anyone is actually mining with stock prb)
trinque: I'd expect miners to be extremely conservative, given how exchange-rate sensitive they must be.
trinque: while taking w/e segwit funds would be hilarious, it'd likely also crash the paper exchanges they dump into
asciilifeform: trinque: why would the taker necessarily have to dump the proceeds on an exchange ?
trinque: just the taking would crash the exchange rate.
shinohai: My thoughts were this *could* be likely reason, why not wait until BTC/fiat exchange rate moons to an astronomical lvl then throw the kill switch.
trinque: the current price of btc is not supported by ubermenchen willing to ride their USD short into the dirt
trinque: though I certainly am
asciilifeform: trinque: personally i doubt that you could get even a july 2020 style crash outta it. but whoknows.
asciilifeform: trinque: imho even chinese miners have (whether realize it or not) an interest in getting the opportunistic vermin the fuck outta bitcoin.
trinque: yep, just the man who can reliably recognize his own interest is rare
asciilifeform: a year or 2 of 3figure $ price would be, i suspect, quite effective for this
asciilifeform: trinque: slightly upstack -- i'm not aware of anyone having calculated precisely how much miner cooperation would be required to make segshit-dekulakization happen.
asciilifeform: i expect not all of'em would have to play, and not eternally.
asciilifeform: and not even 51%.
trinque: as soon as someone squeaks a block with The Bad in it, the strong incentive is to accept it and move on, yes
trinque: (assuming block's otherwise valid according to protocol)
trinque: the reason I don't expect this is that I do assume most miners are using w/e mangled copy of one of the open-source nodes, this because mining's a shitty business with very narrow margins
trinque: but I don't have a high confidence rating on that opinion
asciilifeform: trinque: i'd expect need >1 block
whaack: It doesn't make so much sense to me how one would have the noggin to get the hardware infrastructure setup for actually winning blocks but simultaneously not be able to construct a segwit-snagging transaction
whaack: Nothing is preventing one from monitoring the mempool and broadcasting these segwit snagging transactions as the ones intended with prb rules come in, you could even split the loot by adding a hefty miner fee
thimbronion: What nodes would validate such a tx?
asciilifeform: thimbronion: trb.
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-06-10#1038574 << recall the story of the july-4 fork.
snsabot: Logged on 2021-06-10 11:22:17 whaack: It doesn't make so much sense to me how one would have the noggin to get the hardware infrastructure setup for actually winning blocks but simultaneously not be able to construct a segwit-snagging transaction
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-06-10#1038575 << prb won't relay'em. but potentially if you find a direct path to miner, could get it where he can see it
snsabot: Logged on 2021-06-10 11:24:51 whaack: Nothing is preventing one from monitoring the mempool and broadcasting these segwit snagging transactions as the ones intended with prb rules come in, you could even split the loot by adding a hefty miner fee
thimbronion: Ah right. But if only trb nodes validated, would the block propagate?
asciilifeform: thimbronion: this re mempool. the fork being 'soft', theoretically prb will retro-eat such block if part of greater-pow chain
whaack: asciilifeform: I don't think you can make claims about the intelligence of the miners 9 or at least majority of them, because of the July 4th fork, they may have been paid handsomely in other means
asciilifeform: whaack: i can only suspect.
asciilifeform: all of this btw would be a great application for billymg's network mapper -- find a straight path to miners. (then -- offer'em the boojum, regularly. suppose someone bites..)
snsabot: Logged on 2021-05-13 13:11:19 asciilifeform: whaack: i rec to collaborate w/ billmg, who is baking a very related thing based on watchglass.
asciilifeform: ... and a great application for whaack's block explorer -- e.g. could sum up the 'anyone-spendable' utxo's, display a 'this is the size of the pot!' catchy lotto-style picture.
asciilifeform: $ticker btc usd
btcinfobot: Current BTC price in USD: $36537.84
asciilifeform: !w poll
watchglass: Polling 17 nodes...
watchglass: 126.96.36.199:8333 : Could not connect!
watchglass: 188.8.131.52:8333 : Could not connect!
watchglass: 184.108.40.206:8333 : (pool-108-31-170-100.washdc.fios.verizon.net) Alive: (0.096s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=687078 (Operator: asciilifeform)
watchglass: 220.127.116.11:8333 : (172-4.core.ai.net) Alive: (0.145s) V=70001 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.7.0.1/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=687078
watchglass: 18.104.22.168:8333 : (ns562940.ip-54-39-156.net) Alive: (0.112s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=687078
watchglass: 22.214.171.124:8333 : Alive: (0.084s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=687066 (Operator: whaack)
watchglass: 126.96.36.199:8333 : Alive: (0.087s) V=70001 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.7.0.1/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=687078
watchglass: 188.8.131.52:8333 : Alive: (0.161s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=687078
watchglass: 184.108.40.206:8333 : Alive: (0.176s) V=70001 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.7.0.1/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=687066
watchglass: 220.127.116.11:8333 : Alive: (0.330s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=687060
watchglass: 18.104.22.168:8333 : (static.22.214.171.124.clients.your-server.de) Alive: (0.282s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=412055 (Operator: jurov)
watchglass: 126.96.36.199:8333 : (ns3140226.ip-54-38-94.eu) Alive: (0.320s) V=88888 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.8.88.88/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=687078
watchglass: 188.8.131.52:8333 : (tlapnet-38-54.cust.tlapnet.cz) Alive: (0.294s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=687064
watchglass: 184.108.40.206:8333 : (172-6.core.ai.net) Alive: (0.690s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=686323
watchglass: 220.127.116.11:8333 : Busy? (No answer in 100 sec.)
watchglass: 18.104.22.168:8333 : Busy? (No answer in 100 sec.) (Operator: trinque)
shinohai: https://twitter.com/Nakadai_mon/status/1403040619229069318 <<< Taleb looks like "what dafuq have I done?"
asciilifeform: shinohai: dafuq is this ?
shinohai: Taleb joined Hoaxtoshi and is speaking remotely at the "BSV conference"
snsabot: Logged on 2021-02-12 19:28:52 thimbronion: Taleb reportedly selling his Bitcoin. WTF happened to that guy?
shinohai: One and the same. Bitcoin twitter pissed him off somehow, so he went "Fine I'll join the OTHER scammers".
asciilifeform: shinohai: ok, scammer-x shat out something-or-other in re scammer-y etc etc. why, though, does shinohai give a shit ?
asciilifeform: do you also read whatever it is that gavin, hearn, etc. have to say erryday?
shinohai: No, now how long has asciilifeform known me and how I find great entertainment in watching scammers get rekt, no matter if they are on x,y, or z axis.
asciilifeform: i suppose there's a little entertainment in 'i sold all of my papercoin!' and 4mo later 'lemme tell you what to think about btc'
asciilifeform: afaik fella is a typical reich shill, in no particular respect unique or even unusual.
snsabot: Logged on 2021-02-12 20:11:40 asciilifeform: late-era sovok contained quite a few figures resembling, imho more than superficially, taleb -- i.e. 'dissidents' which were nominally in opposition to it (but vanished into insignificance with its collapse) , nominally 'oppressed' (while occupying plum jobs -- 'writer's union' came w/ massive leisure, primo food, vacation house, car, sometimes -- driver)
shinohai: I generally like to keep pulse of what they are up to - have undercover twitter account, sent girls to Miami to spy, etc.
asciilifeform: ('opposition'-flavoured, rather than clitler-flavoured, but big fat diff)
shinohai: I can't see that he was ever anything more than degenerate gambler with fiat stocks, wrote a few books, etc.
snsabot: Logged on 2021-02-12 20:16:13 asciilifeform: there are few things on satan's green earth more noxious than a lottery winner cum judas goat 'teaching success'.
shinohai: AH! Here was the piece explaining why the prb crowd turned on him https://archive.is/sfGmO
snsabot: Logged on 2021-04-23 13:08:03 asciilifeform: a major moving part behind the price swings are the people who run this heat engine -- 1) spread fud re bitcoin 2) 'buy the dip' 3) drum up enthusiasm among morons 4) sell dear 5) goto 1, nao w/ moar coin, extracted from morons on both strokes of the engine piston
shinohai: I think I actually quoted your "heat engine" thread and linked back to logs on twitter some time back, but even such a simple concept beyond comprehension of avg twitter Bitcoiner so did 0 good.
asciilifeform: 'He also said bitcoin had failed in its supposed role as a replacement for government-backed money, mainly because of its volatility' and guess where the volatility comes from, lol
asciilifeform: that this gavin is invited to whatever-conference, tells you 100% of what you need to know about the conference and the inviters etc.
asciilifeform: the algorithm is recursive and extremely effective.
feedbot: http://thetarpit.org/2021/the-cost-of-ransomware-attacks-will-go-beyond-9000-in-the-next-decade << The Tar Pit -- The cost of ransomware attacks will go beyond 9000 in the next decade
whaack: asciilifeform: any reason you can think of why dumpblock [height] would spit out an orpahned block? My trb appears to be doing this for block 685135, see http://fixpoint.welshcomputing.com/2021/jwrd-logs-for-Jun-2021/#2435
asciilifeform: whaack: at what height is the node at the time of the command?
asciilifeform: (afaik this can happen strictly if the node is in fact on an orphaned chain)
whaack: asciilifeform: node is on block 687094
asciilifeform: whaack: nao ~that~ is interesting. the logic, for reference ( asciilifeform orig. wrote this. )
asciilifeform: whaack: are you certain you got an orphaned chain outta that dump ? (can plz describe process?)
whaack: I've only gotten 1 orphaned block out of the dump, the future blocks seem to be the correct main chain
asciilifeform: this makes absolutely 0 sense, whaack , if yer noad were on orphaned chain, subseq. blocks would be on same.
whaack: I agree it makes 0 sense and I'm digging into wtf is going on, it is likely a bug in my python interpretation, but i smoothly loaded in blocks 0..685135 and then suddenly discovered a 'chink in my chain' with 1 block being an orphaned block
whaack: asciilifeform: Do you have a quick way to check the hash of a block via the command line? I want to see what dumpblock is currently giving me
whaack: I was able to get the job done with the command "head -c 80 685135_dump.txt | sha256sum | cut -c1-64 | xxd -r -p | sha256sum | cut -c1-64" (returned answer in swapped endian, but this was sufficient for seeing which block dumpblock was giving me)
whaack: sooo I can confirm that dumpblock is giving me the wrong block for 685135
asciilifeform: whaack: can post your block somewhere plz ?
whaack: asciilifeform: sure one second
asciilifeform: whaack: compare w/ yours
whaack: asciilifeform: http://ztkfg.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/685135_dump.txt that's my binary file directly from dumpblock
asciilifeform: ugh why txt, confusing
whaack: asciilifeform: I think your permissions are wrong on those files
asciilifeform: lemme check
asciilifeform: try nao
whaack: sry was being thick, renamed to http://ztkfg.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/685135_dump.blk , kept "txt" there in case you started using it already
whaack: asciilifeform: looks like you have the same problem as i do.
asciilifeform: whaack: and all yer post-685135 blox matched those of the linked www's ?
asciilifeform: whaack: i actually suspect a subtle bug in my orig. dumpblock : really oughta walk ~back~ from top, rather than emitting from bottom; and no one ever choked on this simply because the only use to date of eatblock/dumpblock has been to replicate nodes, and trb ignores the orphaned block, only numeration ends up off
asciilifeform: whaack: we can determine now if this is the case : do you happen to have block hashes of all subsequent (to 685135) blocks from yer noad?
whaack: asciilifeform: It seems to be the case, yes, although I only checked for the next 3 blocks after the problem block 685135. in any event from my POV dumpblock on 685136 returns a block whose previous hash does not match the hash of the block from calling dumpblock on block 685135
asciilifeform: whaack: if my hypothesis is correct, somewhere in the list will appear the hash of the 'troo' 685135.
whaack: i don't have all those hashes readily available but i can write a script to get them
asciilifeform: whaack: this would be very handy ( asciilifeform just nao hasn't the hands )
asciilifeform: whaack: we already know that orphaned blox are stored sequentially on the disk with the rest.
whaack: so your saying some block between 685136..current height, as obtained from dumpblock, may have the hash of the block of 685135 on the mainchain?
asciilifeform: whaack: aha.
asciilifeform: which is why the noades continue to operate.
asciilifeform: whaack: correct, somewhere it must appear.
whaack: (i'm also convinced that the node has the block somewhere, since i was able to use getrawtransaction to get a transaction that only appears on the main 685135)
asciilifeform: whaack: i suspect you found a 'so-called great experts of tmsr all supposedly looked and signed but trivial bomb' type of bug.
asciilifeform: whaack: dumpblock oughta be a top-down traversal.
asciilifeform: ( can traverse bottom-up, same as nao, but call IsInMainChain() predicate when counting, alternatively )
asciilifeform: whaack: do me a favour, make the patch, i'll test, sign.
asciilifeform: the iterator in the original blockdump doesn't follow pnext. instead dumbly walks the list.
asciilifeform: this is a trivial fix, whaack , sadly i'm not near a box atm where can do it. so you have a golden moment.
asciilifeform: !q seen-anywhere jurov
asciilifeform: jurov: consider coming back to life so this patch can live on the official tbf page ? and to go in the newsletter ?
asciilifeform: jurov: if you don't want to do these, asciilifeform will, but will need access to the box.
whaack: asciilifeform: Alright, I'll try to patch it, I don't know the trb source much at all and also don't know C++, but I'll give it a whirl
whaack has to eat first
asciilifeform: whaack: no reason to hurry, lol, this bug sat for 6+y!!!! and no one, apparently, gave a shit until nao.
asciilifeform: whaack: lemme know if you get stuck. i'ma do it, then, but prolly no earlier than sunday.
whaack: asciilifeform: Well it's possible that it never appeared at all until block 685135, right?
asciilifeform: whaack: mno. all orhpaned phorklets appear on the disk. but this is afaik 1st time that anyone actually had cause to notice that a dumpblock sequence contained orphaned blk.
asciilifeform: whaack: to date, dumpblock/eatblock was used afaik strictly to hand-feed a noad
asciilifeform: when dumping for this purpose, your dump will contain (turns out) orphaned blocks, but will ~also~ contain the winning-chain ones, so in the end no visible breakage
asciilifeform: and the overall numeration is preserved. so no one noticed.
whaack: Well my point was that perhaps block 685135 was the first block that wuold have an orphaned blk in a dumpblock sequence. but perhaps you understand something i dont
asciilifeform: ( if we had in fact done the 'cement' experiment, ~then~ would've immediately noticed )
snsabot: Logged on 2020-08-26 13:40:09 asciilifeform: the solution to (2) is 'cement', and regular updates of the cement snapshot from trusted wot folx, i.e. for 99+% of the init noad bringup, the noad knows already the hash of $nextblock and will request it directly
asciilifeform: whaack: in order for an orphaned block to appear in a dumpblock sequence, the block gotta be on disk. there are 2 ways to stand up a node currently -- 1) from 'wild' 2) from dumpblock. in (2), for each orphaned block, you have a roughly 50% chance of the ~correct~ one appearing in the dump (breadth-1st traversal)
asciilifeform: and in (1) there is also a substantial chance of not seeing the orphaned block at all.
asciilifeform: so, 'tldr', subtle, annoying bug, where high probability of correct output despite erroneous algo.
asciilifeform: this is, i suspect, neither 1st nor the last time that an alert reader finds that asciilifeform made a mistake, N supposedly-literate people signed off on it uncritically, etc
snsabot: Logged on 2020-05-07 15:16:05 asciilifeform: fat lotta good the folx who supposedly 'read' and then signed ch15, did.
asciilifeform: whaack: ok, baked, tested: asciilifeform_dumpblocks_force_mainchain.kv.vpatch ; asciilifeform_dumpblocks_force_mainchain.kv.vpatch.asciilifeform.sig .
asciilifeform: whaack: now returns the expected mainchain block (tested only your case, but oughta work for others, changed absolute minimum, simply uses IsInMainChain to test for linkup to mainchain)
asciilifeform: ^^ ACHTUNG trinque shinohai jurov mats dpb lobbes billymg BingoBoingo thimbronion and any other trb users tuned in / lurking!! ^^
asciilifeform: ( the vpatch, ftr, is predicated on this one. it was published w/out manifest entry, as i expected mod6 to reissue it, but afaik not happned )
snsabot: Logged on 2020-02-27 10:44:22 asciilifeform: attn trb operators: 22.214.171.124 is nao running mod6's latest variant, augmented with this experimental patch (my sig thereof ) .
shinohai: Gracias asciilifeform! Can hopefully build/test tomorrow.
asciilifeform: np. thx to whaack for the find.
asciilifeform: shinohai: the only affected knob is 'dumpblock'. so test as described upstack.
asciilifeform: again apologies to all trb users inconvenienced by this bug, asciilifeform was responsible for it.
trinque: nice job whaack.
trinque: asciilifeform: can think hard and be perfect, but ~actual fuggin use~ hard to beat.
trinque: whaack has a good use-case, and bug pops right out
asciilifeform: well in this case we were lucky.
trinque: doesn't downplay the thinking hard, but emphasizes the importance of widespread use
asciilifeform: trinque: the interesting bit is that the knob was used many times. but in order to step on the mine, there has to be an orphan block on disk; gotta get 'lucky' (50%) so it gets emitted when climbing the tree; ~and~ the dump gotta be 1 block, rather than sequence where you won't notice (given as eatblock will eat and perform correct pow logic)
asciilifeform: having said this, ~very~ good odds that the list of proposed 'cement' hashes asciilifeform published at one time, contains orphaned blox.
asciilifeform: (no one ever used this item for anyffin, or would've noticed)
trinque: ftr trinque still grasps for exactly what business he'd run *in* BTC, and will be the first to say when otherwise.
asciilifeform: trinque: i.e. 'in' as in $item priced strictly in btc w/out ref. to reichsmarks ?
asciilifeform: (or sumthing moar specific?)
trinque: strictly in btc would be the ideal, of course
trinque: bitbet comes to mind as one of the best to date
asciilifeform: trinque: there's in fact nothing to keep asciilifeform from perma-fixing his isp price sheet in btc. but i'd expect that eventually the customers would barf and go home
asciilifeform: (picture if i'd done this in '19)
asciilifeform: we did a similar thing w/ FG, and it resulted in some laffs
asciilifeform: trinque: maybe i'm thick, but afaik gambling houses are the only possible service where the units do not matter at all.
asciilifeform: errywhere else, you are outputting sumthing other than btc, and users will be sensitive to the ratio and at least vaguely aware of the 'official' exch rate.
trinque: true, but I suppose I have a similar problem if I'm a restaurant serving derpburgers in USD, in that USD meanwhile erodes, but there's not a liquid market for derpburgers to set my prices for me
trinque: tbh your model of publishing the company's pricing equation is in the direction of a solution
asciilifeform: fwiw asciilifeform has a still-standing treasure bounty denominated in btc. (and artifacts priced in same; and prolly elsewhere)
mats: id love to use bitbet again
asciilifeform: mats: i'd luvv to use an ideal 'spherical' bbet with impeccable curator..
asciilifeform: (the original -- not so much)
trinque: in retrospect, ought've deployed a soldier to Antigua instead of UY
asciilifeform: why there?
trinque: favorable regime for gaming, hosts lots of poker etc
asciilifeform: trinque: recall, bbet did not implode because usg anti-gambling police confiscated it..
asciilifeform: ( y'know, rather like how pizarro did not implode because of usg isp censors.. )
mats: ive considered doing a bitbet reboot, but idk anyone interested in running the book
asciilifeform: mats: is the implication that you wouldn't dare to run it yerself?
trinque: bbet wasn't big enough for sauron's lazy eye
mats: i wonder now how many of the props were created by the house (as opposed to walk-ins)
trinque: but in either case, what one could've attracted in Antigua was more investment
asciilifeform: trinque: it aint clear that such a thing needs very much in the way of investment
mats: asciilifeform: i don't think i'm competent to run a book
asciilifeform confesses that he's never felt any interest in running a gambling pit, and not even because 'impossible to escape eye of sauron' (very much possible, supposing yer willing to forgo wot recognition) but because crowded space where ~impossible to get meaningful advantage afaik
asciilifeform: it'd be like opening a barber shop, but with substantial additional expense/risk. what's better about yours than the 1e8 competing ?
mats: the prediction market aspect of bbet was very appealing
asciilifeform: does anyone even know which of the 1e8 clones of sdice is 'king' atm ? or why ?
asciilifeform: mats: what do you find unsatisfying in the currently-existing prediction markets ?
trinque: too absolutist for business. it doesn't fail if it's the 200000th thing on the list that brings in more than spends. but I said bitbet *was*. I don't think I'd reboot that item now.
mats: i'm not aware of real ones available to us customers
mats: theres fiat toys like predictit for academic purposes, and augur on ethereum
asciilifeform: mats: iirc there were several denominated in btc that didn't very hard where on the planet you are
asciilifeform: *didn't ask
trinque still not clear why there needs to be a "the" in the architecture of a betting network
trinque: better to have a reputation network where oracles compete to call bets
mats: i'm familiar with some of the btc bookmakers but thats not the same thing
trinque: which brings me back to http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-06-10#1038719
snsabot: Logged on 2021-06-10 19:39:37 trinque: ftr trinque still grasps for exactly what business he'd run *in* BTC, and will be the first to say when otherwise.
mats: (they select the spread, for example)
trinque: there's a curious problem with decentralized systems where they appear to require self-immolation to bootstrap
asciilifeform: trinque: maybe i'm thick, but who was it who had to self-immolate to get bitcoin going in '09 ?
trinque: what, you get to use absolutist terms but not me?! haha
trinque: consider satoshi's wallet, or the counter-example of buterin
asciilifeform: trinque: is contention here that a 'living' satoshi would have been fatal for takeoff ?
asciilifeform: (observe that he aint dead, only 'schroedinger's'-dead, incidentally)
trinque: I consider that one of the most dangerous things about ethereum in contrast, second perhaps to the complexity of the software turd itself
asciilifeform: which 'that' ?
trinque: buterin wants to rollback the DAO hack; he does
trinque: that there is a buterin in the social system called ethereum
asciilifeform: this'd be simply because etherism aint in any actual sense decentralized, however
trinque: satoshi either conveniently died or is an old kind of statesman whose work was more important than his cock
trinque: to this, forever hats off
trinque: asciilifeform: perhaps. it's hard to know what a provable satoshi would do to the direction of BTC if he emerged today
asciilifeform: trinque: maybe surprisingly, i suspect ~0
trinque bb shortly, food
asciilifeform: i suspect also that 'satoshi' aint dead, but simply has ~0 to gain from 'appearing' (and much to lose)
asciilifeform: say you're him, and 'appear'. 'hey, i wrote that turd! in ms-vs!' nao you have... what ? other than 'over 9000' treasure hunters after yer arse
asciilifeform: one would have to suffer from, literally, at least down's syndrome, to want to stick his cock in this bear trap. it is difficult to picture a less appealing proposition.
asciilifeform: this is why usg has to lavishly pay various derps who they hire for the role. (and still end up with laughably terrible 'talent')
asciilifeform: so, trinque , in this sense i suspect you have the causation backwards.
asciilifeform: i.e. author went into hiding ~because~ bitcoin 'took off'. rather than the reverse.
mats: im curious to see what happens with the new ethereum deflationary policy
asciilifeform: i'll go as far as to say that if someone today signs with 'satoshi's pubkey', asciilifeform will more readily believe that the key was factored or otherwise compromised, than that the signer 'is satoshi'
asciilifeform: mats: i dun follow the subj in realtime, but iirc they recently proclaimed a formal move to permissioned mining
asciilifeform: i.e. full-bore paypalization
mats: yeah lol, sucks for you if you spent $10mn on gpus
asciilifeform: so can't conceive of why mats would find it interesting
asciilifeform: it's yet-another microshitcoin or whichever, there's 'over 9000' of'em
asciilifeform: they aint bitcoin-like even to the degree a traditional shitcoin is.
asciilifeform: 100% plaything of central committee.
mats: i dont hold ethereums or anything, its just mildly interesting to see what happens after a shift in the monetary policy
asciilifeform: mats: already became clear, as trinque pointed out upstack, what it was, when dao rollback
shinohai: mats: their latest tack is that PoS is "Green" and wastes less energy than BTC
asciilifeform: upstack, at the risk of repeating self... imho bitcoin is an example of a piece of shit, from every possible angle, that 'won' from lack of credible alternatives. like microshit's products.
mats: im curious about what will happen to the eth tx volume afterwards, how it could result in parity with btc, what the next monetary policy will be, how this could affect the share price, etc
asciilifeform: shinohai: esp. lulzy, somehow chumps are meant to believe that fiatola banking, precious metals mining and guarding , etc. uses 0 energy..
snsabot: Logged on 2020-05-15 22:24:16 asciilifeform: lru: lemme ask you, do you think the resources that went into making, e.g. hydrogen bomb, were wasted ?
asciilifeform: mats: already i have 0 info re what relation, if any, the nominal exch value of eth etc has to reality, or whether 100% 'wash' trading
asciilifeform: so it could in fact go in whatever direction usg wants it to appear to go.
asciilifeform: in my l1/l2 there is not 1 single person who ever admitted to any substantial operations with ethertardium
asciilifeform: so as far as i'm concerned, ~100% wash
mats: shinohai: one of these days therell be a musk headline about selling tsla's btc for eth
asciilifeform: (or even his own proprietary shitcoin, why not, if mavrodi can do it why not musk)
shinohai: Technically he *did* sell some btc for eth, since he bought a bunch of "cumrocket" token on their chain recently.
mats: i read he wants to incorporate a city in tx, so issuing company scrip makes sense
asciilifeform: shinohai: musk plays a very predictable and straightforward role in the usg.spectable -- helping to maintain the volatility.
snsabot: Logged on 2021-06-10 15:07:58 asciilifeform: shinohai: he's 1 of the pins on the crankshaft of the heat engine, simply
snsabot: Logged on 2021-06-10 15:09:36 asciilifeform: 'He also said bitcoin had failed in its supposed role as a replacement for government-backed money, mainly because of its volatility' and guess where the volatility comes from, lol
asciilifeform: earlier they had zuckerberg etc. doing it
asciilifeform: iirc the 2000s rumoured term for this kinda thing was 'buzzsawing'
asciilifeform: (one of the methods for artificially crashing a price)
asciilifeform: ^ device illustrates effect where adding an oscillation to an unstable system can eliminate the instability ~entirely