trinque: asciilifeform: yep that's the tradeoff
trinque: $vwap
btcinfobot: The 24-Hour VWAP for BTC is $ 45524.52 USD
trinque: uh oh, we're poor again
trinque: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-02-08#1031239 << seems like that's what homo reddicus is doing, taking their UBI and dumping it into the casino
snsabot: Logged on 2021-02-08 17:26:00 asciilifeform: trinque: heh, picture what exch rate might look like if even 1% of that 'go brrr' were to buy btc
trinque: rational, in that sad "fuck it, I will never be rich any other way".
trinque: same as the lottery.
asciilifeform: trinque: lol rich
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-02-10#1031290 << the payola was a one-time coupla $k, wasnnit ? dun seem like it'll buy very long play in casino
snsabot: Logged on 2021-02-10 10:05:50 trinque: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-02-08#1031239 << seems like that's what homo reddicus is doing, taking their UBI and dumping it into the casino
verisimilitude: Besides, I've read a decent amount which emphasizes how a fiat currency trying to buy Bitcoin would just drive the values further away.
trinque: asciilifeform: no, continuing payments are being contemplated
trinque: and given the "velocity of money" still wont increase (since it's all being sucked into the casino) this will probably be the final inflationary stick-pulling
asciilifeform: verisimilitude: sadly nope
snsabot: Logged on 2020-05-05 19:56:14 asciilifeform: it worx because there's a neverending supply of a) dumb shits who see 'paper gold' as == to actual b) greedy shits who want 'leverage'
verisimilitude: I don't know what's supposed to happen when the dollar becomes worthless. The military, government, and largest businesses aren't just going to roll over and die.
asciilifeform: trinque: can't resist to ask, why do you think 'final' ?
trinque: US has been using the rest of the world as an inflation-sink for the last half-century via trade deficit
verisimilitude: Also, plenty of people worldwide would starve without the US food exports.
trinque: it's hard to imagine the USD keeping its reserve status after this, but who knows, stupidity knows no bounds
verisimilitude: Misery loves company but, at least if I die, I die alone.
trinque: eh I'm hardly miserable
verisimilitude: I just refer to potential collapse.
trinque: w/e, death comes for us all, not miserable about that either
trinque: anyhow, the brrrrr reactions after "market" crashes appear to be exponentially increasing
trinque: sadly earth is not also exponentially increasing
asciilifeform: trinque: the interesting imho aspect is the lack of any detectable exponential effect on btc-usd
trinque: so even assuming the idiot international dollar system participants don't abandon ship, how can there ever be enough of them.
asciilifeform: ( see also )
snsabot: Logged on 2020-05-05 19:58:04 asciilifeform: the 'mass of usd' in circulation ~doubled in last month. w/out, observe, anyffin like a proportional effect on btc, gold, etc
trinque: yeah, matters where the money is flowing
trinque: right now most dollar-holders consider the stock market the only thing that can give a return
verisimilitude: Well, we know the saying: ``Humans are bad at visualizing exponential effects.''
trinque: which is hilarious given how far from the mean it currently is
trinque: verisimilitude: also when we see them we get scared, which is probably a very good instinct
trinque: note the spike-and-blowoff cycles in btc
verisimilitude: My fear of such must be dulled, then.
trinque: the exponential is there, but there's a dampening effect somewhere in the hindbrain
asciilifeform: trinque: also cannot help but wonder whether exch rate would still have so many digits in it if coin were actually easily spendable (vs. 'write-only memory'(tm)(r))
snsabot: Logged on 2021-02-04 15:40:57 asciilifeform: adlai: asciilifeform's gripes re 'unspendable' are 100% to do with ~usd~ , rather than btc
snsabot: Logged on 2021-01-06 21:15:41 asciilifeform: makes for a rather great 'write-only memory' tho!
trinque: safe to say nobody has a good prediction of what's next, certainly not me.
trinque: one could assume more "monetary velocity" in BTC would drive the value per unit up, since it constrains supply for new purchasers
trinque: but I know very little about what transitions between currencies look like historically, not a bad thing to research
trinque: the collapse of the former probably has a lot of near-term potential for destruction of the what-to-value before latter's widespread enough to fully replace
asciilifeform: trinque: depletion of circulating coin only constrains the price for purchasers of genuine (rather than paper) coinz, however
trinque: certainly so
asciilifeform: recall shortage of physical au in past decade. couldn't tell it by looking at the price of paper au.
asciilifeform: trinque: asciilifeform has once witnessed a currency replacement; but was, of course, of 1 printola w/ another.
snsabot: Logged on 2020-05-05 19:39:14 asciilifeform: thimbronion: i watched ruble die as a boy. suddenly had whole sack full of'em, felt 'rich'. until a little later, when noticed it wouldn't buy even candy bar
asciilifeform: ... and, importantly, the 'winners' in such historical events were ~not~ folx who had somehow hoarded $new_paper in advance.
asciilifeform: ( but instead rather: thieves, robbers, extortionists, corrupt officials of all stripes )
asciilifeform: i.e. folx w/ access to goodies 'not bolted down well'
trinque: sure, hoarding power always beats collectables
trinque would also not be surprised by a totalitarian attempt to either turn btc into, or otherwise force use of, a fedcoin
trinque: usg is not just going to say "damn, we lose!" in a hyperinflation scenario
trinque: still has enough boom to wreck 100 earths or w/e
snsabot: Logged on 2020-11-02 15:33:53 asciilifeform: all the current slave empires have exactly 1 strategic objective : 'business-as-usual'. ad infinitum.
mats: the chinese experiments with fedcoin are proceeding smoothly
asciilifeform: trinque: 'soft' paperization seems to work a++. exactly as it worked w/ au, the circulation of which, despite legalization under nixon, never threatened reich's 'brrr'.
mats: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bank-of-chinas-cbdc-trials-crossed-3-million-between-april-and-august-202010080506
asciilifeform: mats: it aint clear to me what chinese (or any other) 'national paylal clone' -- i.e. permissioned/premined loltron -- has to do w/ 'cryptocurrency'
asciilifeform: *paypal
asciilifeform: is simply an expensive, slow, baroque way of baking a paypal.
trinque bbl
asciilifeform: mats: imho quite reminiscent of the expensive and pointless sovok clone of usa's 'space shuttle'.
mats: i'm not sure operating a fedcoin has to be expensive or slow
verisimilitude: Now I see the value of Bitcoin ``would be negative if a proper carbon tax was applied to its massive polluting''.
verisimilitude: The parasites wasting obscene resources on ``high-frequency trading'' games are apparently still fine.
verisimilitude: This article conflates several different cryptocurrencies, to its benefit.
asciilifeform: mats: depends on whether is a 'coin' in the sense of public chain, blocks, verification of sigs, etc. or simply a paypalesque central db + some abuse of terminology
mats: verisimilitude: or the folks with outdoor cats murdering local populations of rodents and birds, or those who commute to work in a hulking machine with less than three occupants, or those who fly from toronto to miami for vacation
asciilifeform: mats: in the former case -- slow (and potentially very expensive, as may req. ethertard-style 'unprincipled exceptions' periodically)
verisimilitude: I've never heard of a Bitcoin transaction being ``reversed'', as with Ethereum, and the idea that money is ``safe'' when an organization controls it is laughable.
mats: i rarely see the 'bitcoin is bad for the environment' arg proferred in good faith
asciilifeform: mats: see also
snsabot: Logged on 2020-05-15 22:24:16 asciilifeform: lru: lemme ask you, do you think the resources that went into making, e.g. hydrogen bomb, were wasted ?
verisimilitude: Apparently feeding Africa isn't a massive waste of resources, either.
verisimilitude: That dragon story comes to mind.
asciilifeform: mats: 100% of envirowhinerism reduces to the old gulag maxim 'you -- die, i -- will live a bit more'
mats: lol
verisimilitude: I agree, how amusing.
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-02-10#1031357 << at this pt i suspect that there's a perl script somewhere which generates these, since '13 or so
snsabot: Logged on 2021-02-10 13:26:51 verisimilitude: https://archive.is/LmseS
asciilifeform: verisimilitude: picture if cockroaches could write. what do you suppose they would write about ddt ?
verisimilitude: They're too busy pushing homosexuality and trannies.
asciilifeform: mats: the folx who prattle about the 'ecological threat' of cats , particularly loathesome. 100% of the time they have never seen a rat, in their 'mcmansions'
asciilifeform: or take the 'commute to work in a hulking machine with less than three' -- nuffin voluntary about it. unlike the 'jet setters' and their pompous 'business' travels
verisimilitude: The US car culture is just an example of how businesses don't make the best for society, but for them.
asciilifeform: verisimilitude: the terminological abuse in calling e.g. ford 'a business' (rather than what it is -- an unofficial organ of the crown) -- is rather similar to the 'communism' of sovok
verisimilitude: Well, of course; all businesses are arms of the government.
asciilifeform: verisimilitude: lolwat?
verisimilitude: No business in the US, at least those large enough, can be trusted.
verisimilitude: The example of Best Buy's ``Geek Squad'' or whatever being FBI informants comes to mind.
asciilifeform: verisimilitude: see, this is that very same terminological confusion, and to the enemy's advantage. 'best buy', 'mcd', etc. aint 'businesses' in the sense of e.g. auto mechanic or asciilifeform's isp etc.
asciilifeform: a usgcorp aint a business in the sense where it actually relies on supplying a demand to stay in the black, and where the operator's personal wealth is predicated on the health of the biz
verisimilitude: It's the goal of most businesses to transition to those, however.
asciilifeform: ( i presume erryone has heard of 'golden parachute' )
asciilifeform: verisimilitude: while it is impossible to say that e.g. folx selling hats from carpets in the streets ~would refuse~ 'transition' to usgcorp -- not clear that any such folx spend time thinking about subj
verisimilitude: They'd go insane or become, say, communists otherwise.
verisimilitude: The system is predicated on the lie that it can happen with hard work.
asciilifeform: verisimilitude: outside of 'startupism' racket, most small biz folx i've run into do not suffer from delusion of 'get rich!11'
asciilifeform: ( instead, suffering delusion that 'with hard work!' they can pay off mortgage, auto credit, etc., and have what to eat when old! )
feedbot: http://thetarpit.org/2021/google-the-tech-company << The Tar Pit -- Google, the "tech company"
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-02-10#1031356 << this framing, incidentally, is mistaken. aristocrats don't waste resources by playing 'core wars' w/ each other; but rather by... eating, building palaces, massacring own serfs, etc.
snsabot: Logged on 2021-02-10 13:26:13 verisimilitude: The parasites wasting obscene resources on ``high-frequency trading'' games are apparently still fine.
asciilifeform: ... and observe that homo redditus nao got his wish, can play 'same' game of corewars w/ one another, 'gamestop' etc
asciilifeform: it is imho worth to think about, do you object to simply one particular hobby of the aristocrats? or to them, themselves, as a class.
verisimilitude: I object to their existence, and won't pretend one of the reasons isn't because I'm not in that class.
verisimilitude: I prefer to think the better should rule, and that class is neither stronger nor smarter.
verisimilitude: Returning to my deity ruler idea, the current set of humans lording over us aren't even close. They're pathetic.
asciilifeform: verisimilitude: i suspect that current-day aristos are a story of substance abuse. e.g. the medicis, did not have cocaine.
thimbronion: asciilifeform: is cocaine more destructive than alcohol to the addict?
asciilifeform: thimbronion: afaik ~less~; however, moar destructive to folx nearby.
snsabot: Logged on 2021-02-04 13:54:29 asciilifeform: y'know, folx w/ 'hurrah!' confidence spewing outta all orifices -- but ~0 capacity for reflection.
snsabot: (trilema) 2016-12-01 asciilifeform: there was not an earlier document ?
thimbronion: Forget cocaine, ancient aristocrats also lacked caffeine.
trinque: I think there's just not anything nearly as interesting to do today.
trinque: in prior history the game was the expansion and contraction of empires, and modern warmaking ended that.
trinque: we had a fantasy of extending into space in late 20th c, and realized that's way further off than star trek wanted.
trinque: now we're just sitting here with our thumbs up our ass, having grown more or less to the size of our banzai-kitten planet, waiting for someone to find cheaper energy, easier gravity-well escapes, etc
trinque: anyhow, all this "not really much to do until someone drastically upsets the balance of power" doesn't make for an interesting game that grows interesting aristocrats
trinque: it just grows arsonists and bank robbers.
trinque: or pill-heads.