bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-01 21:20:00 asciilifeform: signpost: cheapcoinz when!
shinohai[asciilifeform]: $ticker btc usd
busybot[asciilifeform]: Current BTC price in USD: $29901.98
shinohai[asciilifeform]: Back below 30k!
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: I say bottom was in at 26k. If I'm wrong I'll implement Pest in Javascript.
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: jonsykkel: I've been hearing rumors that Swedes are extremely reluctant to feed their guests (if they ever have them). Have you also heard this?
jonsykkel[asciilifeform|billymg]: lol, cant say i have. that said, only time i ever visited a swede, the swede in question did not feed me
shinohai[asciilifeform]: lol @ pest in js
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: Should make it worse: IE6 compatibility required
billymg: i was actually going to write my pest client in JS
billymg: and call it jest
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: lol sorry jest is taken
billymg: i know but that doesn't matter
signpost[asciilifeform]: awt: well, I bought then too.
signpost[asciilifeform]: but near-term it's been tracking the nasdaq almost perfectly, so unless you think the bottom is in for stonks, I'd get your javascripts ready.
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: signpost: npm at the ready
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: j/k no way in hell I'm writing more js
signpost[asciilifeform]: lol, I think I've done enough time in those mines for one lifetime too.
asciilifeform: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006018 << at some pt the 'institutional' moneys, hypothetically, will gtfo, and what remains would be the 'genuine' exch rate
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 15:54:43 signpost[asciilifeform]: but near-term it's been tracking the nasdaq almost perfectly, so unless you think the bottom is in for stonks, I'd get your javascripts ready.
asciilifeform: ... objective of the 'institutional' scum is simple as a hammer: 1) pump it up, so that 1a) btc-usd dun track actual-inflation 1b) can dump it periodically, inducing morons (esp. of the 'leveraged' variety) to panic sell 2) let'em load up on the cheap, after each such panic.
asciilifeform: there's likely a 3) keep up volatility to maximally inhbit honest commerce.
asciilifeform: *inhibit
billymg: actual commerce in btc also punished by threat of jail if you're not "licensed"
asciilifeform: billymg: wotless commerce at any rate.
billymg: which is any commerce of any scale
asciilifeform must disagree
asciilifeform: hawala scales as much as anyone could want.
asciilifeform: 'it worx if you work it'
bitbot: (asciilifeform) 2022-02-01 asciilifeform: from asciilifeform's pov, a >dunbar-sized wot, where such 'automations' seem useful, is an atrocity to begin with
asciilifeform: bitbot: l2/l3 from a dunbaristic wot is large enuff
asciilifeform: err, billymg
billymg: ah, yeah, if you include l2 and l3 that's true
billymg: makes sense
asciilifeform: nor are you stuck dealing with'em directly. hypothetically, if yer trafficing plutonium, mediate through l1.
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006022 << there is nowhere to gtfo to. Also this is the best environment for btc we've yet seen.
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 17:11:46 asciilifeform: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006018 << at some pt the 'institutional' moneys, hypothetically, will gtfo, and what remains would be the 'genuine' exch rate
asciilifeform: from one pov, is a hilarious twist on the usg newspeak 'know yer customer'. if you ~actually~ 'know yer customer`, yer moar or less impenetrable to reich.
billymg: asciilifeform: heh, makes for a good meme opportunity
billymg: deedbot, pest, v, etc. are KYC-only!
billymg: know-your-customer|contact|coder
asciilifeform: would hasten to add tho, that what folx are jailed for in the reich aint contrabandism per se, but 'being rich without a license'. if yer conspicuously loaded and it was simply because found buried treasure, some article in penal code will be found for you.
billymg: 'spending without giving them a cut'
asciilifeform: iirc mp had a piece re subj. is simple predator-prey relationship, lizards predate on uppity plebes who 'think they're somebodies' simply because came across some dough somewhere.
asciilifeform: starting with 50+% taxation (usa) and ending with confiscations on trumped-up charges etc
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: asciilifeform: there is a case to be made that btc won't moon moon until enough lizards have their fill.
asciilifeform: awt: there's more than one variant of 'moon', and not all possible 'moons' are a good time arguably
billymg: awt: that's what seems most likely to me. i think we're more or less at the bottom, maybe with some brief dips to the low 20s, but otherwise range here for another 3-5 months
billymg: too cheap and plebs can afford to load up, current range seems like maximum pain plus ideal for lizards (and no one else) to meaningfully load up
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: billymg: IMO 22-23k would be a dip BELOW the 2017 ath in real terms which would be unprecedented. Certainly doesn't mean it's not possible.
billymg: asciilifeform: bitcoin has grown many zeros already in the time that sandwich only doubled
billymg: awt: yeah, think if it gets that low it would be very brief, like the march 2020 covid dip
billymg: !. version
bitbot: I am bot version 733831.
bitbot: (asciilifeform) 2022-06-02 bitbot: I am bot version 734773.
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 18:05:40 bitbot: I am bot version 733831.
billymg: i never restarted the pest bot with that fix
billymg: will get them in another backfill run
asciilifeform: awt: recall the march 2020 dip
asciilifeform: ( what was it, to 3k ? )
asciilifeform: quite effective plunder of the 'weak hands', and somehow quickly forgotten
asciilifeform: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006055 << was 'piling up zeros' until '17, when the 'institutionals' found their current pill against this
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 18:02:26 billymg: asciilifeform: bitcoin has grown many zeros already in the time that sandwich only doubled
asciilifeform: their current toolkit includes also shitcoin proliferation (yet anuther way to divert usd away from uncontrolled pumping of btc by 'humans')
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006065 << yes but even that was not below previous ATH.
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 18:12:50 asciilifeform: ( what was it, to 3k ? )
billymg: right, the mega covid dump was still 3x previous ATH, currently sitting at 1.5x previous ATH (not adjusting for covid money printing)
asciilifeform: billymg: can elaborate plox? 'ath' -- all time high ?
billymg: yes
asciilifeform: iirc currently ath == ~70k
billymg: hence 'previous' ATH, as opposed to 'most recent' or 'current'
billymg: which would be 20k in 2017
billymg: and after the 2017 ATH, previous ATH was ~1k from 2013
asciilifeform not 100% clear on the significance of this metric, however
billymg: bitcoin, after reaching a new ATH, has never dumped below it's previous ATH
billymg: its*
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: Could happen. Lots of folks could possibly have longs predicated on this "rule"
billymg: obviously, yes, sample size of around 3-4
asciilifeform: this is 'numerologically' appealing , but asciilifeform knows of no fundamental reason why not at whatever time 'dip below last peak'
asciilifeform: leveragescum and their 'longs' actually make specifically for appealing target to 'break' the rule by whatever artificial means
billymg: asciilifeform, awt: yeah, i could see lizards dump to 19k to "zomg unprecedented! bitcoin dead!"
asciilifeform: for instance.
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: asciilifeform: likely time for that to happen would not be when regime is not wrecking the global financial system and getting wrecked on all fronts itself
asciilifeform: precisely when wrecking, why not
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: *IS wrecking, I meant
asciilifeform: for that matter, they can make virtually any desired numbers emerge from the goxes, whenever ( 'no actual btc was harmed in the making of this film' etc )
billymg: big question for me is still whether or not china and russia want to load up on btc
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: But in anycase - don't want to be accused of technical analysisism
billymg: last i heard china "unbanned" bitcoin again recently
asciilifeform: billymg: near as can tell, they closely resemble the anglo reich in addiction to printing press and 'monetary policy'
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: billymg: also some evidence miners still mining there
asciilifeform: ... on top of this, most btc, from pov of ru/cn, is in hands of foreign devils, and so often enuff seen there as 'instrument of reich'
billymg: asciilifeform: which would mean they'd equally want to hoard real assets for themselves, while giving their subjects paper
billymg: asciilifeform: that's what i was wondering
billymg: e.g. does satoshi's stash belong to the nsa/cia
asciilifeform: from orc pov, 'real assets' are e.g. oilfields, rather than btc ( which from quasiliterate orc pov is difficult to distinguish from garden-variety 'paper' , esp. when the only kinda btc they're even aware of to start with is the paper/goxcoin variety )
billymg: or do china/russia think it does
asciilifeform: billymg: from their pov, prolly suffices that it belongs to unknown foreigners, to be 'guilty until proven innocent' of cia
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: asciilifeform: in that case, the more it's suppressed in the reich, more evidence it's not compromised.
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: in the alternative scenario, US will pump it
asciilifeform: reich often enuff pantomimes 'suppress' constructively. e.g. the '17--present 'encryption wank' (concerning wholly faux cryptosystems) to encourage use of various 'coloured phones' ; or the play-pretend 'war on dope' etc
asciilifeform: difficult to imagine that crowned heads entirely unaware.
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: asciilifeform: certainly however price is a different matter
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: Costs
asciilifeform: the exch rate aint even a scalar. (i.e. it's one thing if your contact is via 'let's load a gox and see exch rate', entirely other if you want to buy coin in serious qty; yet anuther if you want to buy trb-compat. coin; etc )
billymg: goxes still sell trb-compat. coin, dunno about the quantity though
asciilifeform: theoretically
billymg: yeah, i mean you can at a minimum still log in, buy 100 bux worth, and transfer to a 1-address
asciilifeform: in practice good chance of 'sorry, withdrawal only worx if yer a++ gold star kyc approved, please mail the following photos of yer arse and wait 6mo' etc
asciilifeform: see what happens when try and buy 100k$ worth.
billymg: asciilifeform: yeah, that's a given at ~100% of goxes these days
billymg: even for the 100 bux amount
billymg: and yeah, no idea how it works if you want to transfer $100k worth to a 1-address
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: Incidentally re: kyc tax harassment - paid massive federal tax bill this year but of course got a letter back saying I owe 1000 bux because of the stimmi cheques.
asciilifeform: awt: good % of tax is collected, deliberately, in precisely this way
asciilifeform: 'you owe $+diff + interest, kthx'
billymg: awt: i got a letter of harassment from NY asking when i moved to texas and when i sold $company_stock
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: billymg: lovely. I gotta get out of california.
billymg: awt: iirc there were headlines of california passing (or perhaps only wanting to pass) law that collects gains for x years even after you move out
billymg: collects tax*
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: billymg: not passed but yes
asciilifeform: will be interesting when they decree that e.g. frenchmen owe californistan tax 'because walked by a crapple store and partook of the glory of californireich' or the like
billymg: asciilifeform: doesn't it currently work the other way around? eureich wanting to tax california companies because "give us some of that internet money"
asciilifeform: billymg: formally they have subsidiaries there, neh
asciilifeform: ( as did e.g. google in ru until recently bankrupt from fines )
billymg: was referring to this: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-usa-tax-idUSKBN28522M
asciilifeform: they do biz there, neh
asciilifeform: (and presumably +ev, or would pack it)
billymg: i guess facebook does biz there in the sense of frenchmen can log into their facebook accounts and see ads
asciilifeform: fr ads, paid for in fr, neh
billymg now remembers the early days of the web in the US when online shopping somehow exempt from sales tax
billymg: asciilifeform: yeah, i suppose it's justifiable, as far as any tax is
asciilifeform: simply, one pays a tax when can't escape. whether 'justifiable' or not.
signpost[asciilifeform]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006081 << I don't think anyting like this can be relied upon.
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 18:19:54 billymg: bitcoin, after reaching a new ATH, has never dumped below it's previous ATH
signpost[asciilifeform]: "every day I've ever been alive, I've never died!"
signpost[asciilifeform] doesn't claim to know what's going to happen either.
signpost[asciilifeform]: currency crisis in USD could create such buying pressure as to dwarf all that came before it.
signpost[asciilifeform]: or it could panic institutions into gold and land instead.
signpost[asciilifeform]: not a terrible idea to position for all of these.
signpost[asciilifeform]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006112 << they have "prime brokerage" desks which do what the customer wants, proportional to the customer's girth.
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 18:33:32 billymg: goxes still sell trb-compat. coin, dunno about the quantity though
signpost[asciilifeform]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006052 << this is what my tea leaves suggest too.
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 18:00:00 billymg: awt: that's what seems most likely to me. i think we're more or less at the bottom, maybe with some brief dips to the low 20s, but otherwise range here for another 3-5 months
signpost[asciilifeform]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006056 << how do you know this?
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 18:04:52 billymg: awt: yeah, think if it gets that low it would be very brief, like the march 2020 covid dip
signpost[asciilifeform]: the 2000 and 2008 crashes went on for years.
signpost[asciilifeform]: and these did not involve intentional sabotage of global trade of the scale that has occurred in the last few years.
signpost[asciilifeform]: govt can print as much money as they like; if products are not moving, workers for the companies making them are not being paid.
signpost[asciilifeform] already seeing layoffs in the news, and it's pretty early if this is a "big" market collapse.
billymg: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006140 << agreed and wasn't' suggesting that it could, only illustrating the observed pattern up to present day
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 22:43:36 signpost[asciilifeform]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006081 << I don't think anyting like this can be relied upon.
billymg: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006151 << was only talking about btc here, not the broader market. and i guess i don't know, just a hunch as to how much i think they can suppress it
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 22:56:07 signpost[asciilifeform]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006056 << how do you know this?
signpost[asciilifeform]: what I'm grunting at is the larger civilizational machine within which bitcoin resides looks broken.
signpost[asciilifeform] has been trying to get a graph to share from koyfin but that, also, busted, lol
signpost[asciilifeform]: anyway, in 08 the "official" unemployment rate made it to ~10%, in the covid sabotage ~15%, and these are the fake numbers.
signpost[asciilifeform] checks what shadowstats says
signpost[asciilifeform]: after every big crash they've fiddled interest rates downward, and it appears to be taking longer for employment to recover, and lower rates.
signpost[asciilifeform]: the system looks trapped. unemployment means chaos in the streets, and low interest rates means inflation, which means unemployment, which means.
signpost[asciilifeform]: it's this part that would perhaps supply the "this time will be different" for btc, which has otherwise spent most of its life in a mega-bull-run-of-everything.
billymg: in tru collapse scenario only food, ammo, and reliable neighbors count for anything. if that happens, well, will be interesting. and i have nfi what the situation would be like here in cr or how long i'd survive
billymg: i'd still keep my keys safe, in case the world makes it out the other side, but yeah, i guess priorities would change pretty quick
billymg: i also don't really see that happening
billymg: newspapers could print "you must starve yourself to death to save the black children" and people would do it -- problem solved, more resources to go around for those remaining
signpost[asciilifeform]: I'm not saying mad max, just saying we're not even to 08 levels of pain yet. people just have a short memory.
signpost[asciilifeform]: and I don't think 1930s levels of pain are off the table.
signpost[asciilifeform]: going back to the patterns of past bubble cycles, the drawdowns of the last two were about 80%. 2011 came down by >90%.
signpost[asciilifeform]: we're at like -50% right now.
signpost[asciilifeform]: with a shittier world. doesn't make sense that the pain's over. but I don't know shit, just talking here.
billymg: signpost: talking btc or also also s&p, nasdaq, etc.?
billymg: s/also also/also
billymg: my thought on 80-90% drawdown is that it won't happen because the run up, from bottom to top, wasn't as high. in 2017 it was 100x ($200 to $20k)
billymg: i.e. it's been dampened in both directions
signpost[asciilifeform]: yeah, that's possible
signpost[asciilifeform]: re: s&p inflation devours margins and causes unemployment, which kills spending.
signpost[asciilifeform]: maybe they introduce UBI and see how long that holds together.
signpost[asciilifeform] just doesn't intend to panic if BTC falls further. on the contrary.
billymg: UBI would be lulzy, given how the average joe spent his stimulus check in 2020
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: signpost: job market is indeed toast
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: Music stopped a few weeks ago
awt[billymg|asciilifeform]: Most have no savings
asciilifeform: awt: folx w/ 0 saving at least not have to grimace as these dissolve into vapour as printingpress goes ever brr
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: Stage is set for either massive inflation or formal bank nationalization
asciilifeform: reich banks already de-facto nationalized in '08 episode
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: Thus the "formal"
asciilifeform: how much diff would 'formal' make
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: asciilifeform: cbdc
asciilifeform never grasped what diff these'd make. there's already a centrally-operated electro-usd, has been for half century+
asciilifeform: for that matter, iirc various shitholes issued'em already, and they lived & died exactly like regular shitcoins
asciilifeform: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006183 << ~half of adult popul. in usa already 'ubi'
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 23:33:57 signpost[asciilifeform]: maybe they introduce UBI and see how long that holds together.
signpost[asciilifeform]: difference of degree only, but so is blood loss for a while.
asciilifeform: sumbody gotta physically maintain the panem et circenses for the 'ubi' sads
asciilifeform: (not even to mention the reptilian yachts)
signpost[asciilifeform]: only claim I'm making is that we've had crashes in the past, and this one isn't bad yet by their standards.
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: Arguable that given the rate of inflation there was no recovery
asciilifeform: in other shitholes, inflation eventually undone by devaluation ('let's drop a zero on the banknotes', 'trade up to 1000 old rubles for new per meatsack by next month' etc)
signpost[asciilifeform]: yeah, this I believe is what the cdbc account at the fed is meant to make easy.
asciilifeform: in usa no ready path to this, as buying power of usd in fact propped up by foreign chumps ~exclusively
signpost[asciilifeform]: stimmies and demurrage
signpost[asciilifeform]: if I spelled the latter correctly
asciilifeform: cancel paper benjie -- the asphalt layers, fruit pickers, etc. go the fuck home to aztlan
asciilifeform: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006186 << whenever asciilifeform reads these, always wonders if 'parallel universe'. in just about erry salt mine where did time, was always shortage of hands, and ~impossible to hire ~anybody with hands growing from correct place
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 23:44:35 awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: signpost: job market is indeed toast
asciilifeform: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006166 << to date, 100% of 'chaos in streets' in reich was of the controlled variety
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 23:13:04 signpost[asciilifeform]: the system looks trapped. unemployment means chaos in the streets, and low interest rates means inflation, which means unemployment, which means.
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: asciilifeform: not my experience
asciilifeform: awt: elaborate
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: SV was a ghost down around the time I graduated. Similarly I was laid off in 2008.
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: Could say my hands grow from the incorrect place I guess
asciilifeform: moar plausibly 'biz cycle' is moar palpable in west usa
asciilifeform: where mega-tbtf corps balloon and then pop periodically with printola emission fluctuations
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: Is why I ended up on the east coast for a while
awt[asciilifeform|billymg]: When IPO market ended last fall, project similarly cancelled
asciilifeform: in east, good % of 'economy' is ultimately powered by reich contracts with terms measured in decades
billymg: asciilifeform: i've heard of hiring freezes and slowdowns also, and not just in meme headlines. buddy of mine who's a software exec at some company was commenting weeks ago about how "job market is bad now"
asciilifeform believes
asciilifeform: 'future is here but not evenly distributed'(tm)(r)(w.gibson)
asciilifeform: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006155 << the interesting imho thing is that there's plenty of 'product' that could stop moving 4evah and no sane people will notice or care (e.g. orlov's favourite example, 'little orange plastic pumpkins erry october')
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-02 23:00:44 signpost[asciilifeform]: govt can print as much money as they like; if products are not moving, workers for the companies making them are not being paid.
asciilifeform: good % of nominal reich economy consists of these idiocies
asciilifeform: (not even to mention the purely paper 'products')
asciilifeform: ... or the 'planned obsolescence' liquishit
asciilifeform: the plastic autos which typically in junkyard before the 5y credit is paid, etc
asciilifeform: all of this nonsense made possible by 'brr'
signpost[asciilifeform]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-03#1006212 << you're definitely not representative of average grunt, my dude.
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-03 00:01:08 asciilifeform: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-02#1006186 << whenever asciilifeform reads these, always wonders if 'parallel universe'. in just about erry salt mine where did time, was always shortage of hands, and ~impossible to hire ~anybody with hands growing from correct place
asciilifeform: reich would in fact be ~richer~ if the folx 'employed' to stamp out this shite were instead collecting 'ubi' and smoking opium
asciilifeform: (in whatever terms one likes)
signpost[asciilifeform]: question isn't that, but whether transition to same can be orderly.
signpost[asciilifeform]: or, interesting!
asciilifeform: afaik this transition already happening for many yrs, and about as orderly as anyffin in reich
signpost[asciilifeform]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-03#1006221 << yep, these have been first to say "ouch", for the obvious reason.
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-03 00:04:20 asciilifeform: where mega-tbtf corps balloon and then pop periodically with printola emission fluctuations
signpost[asciilifeform]: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2022-06-03#1006234 << the most entertaining (because I'm demented) future imho is the one where other reich-aligned fiats implode, absorbing some of the last few years' printola.
bitbot: Logged on 2022-06-03 00:14:20 asciilifeform: all of this nonsense made possible by 'brr'
asciilifeform: e.g. eur
signpost[asciilifeform]: say the reich's playing a game of who crumbles first, and capitulates into USD.
asciilifeform[billymg]: current reich plan seems to be to sacrifice the fat, lazy eureichtards
signpost[billymg]: turkey, etc
asciilifeform: turks afaik have a reasonably complete physical economy and well-posed for a hypothetical 'definancialization'
asciilifeform: + a reasonably-working army
asciilifeform: and decent supply of historic fuckings to avenge when get the chance.
signpost[asciilifeform]: afaik lira's inflating like hell. but yeah, traditional solution's also right there for them.
signpost[asciilifeform]: actually by turkish standards I guess 70% inflation's tame!
signpost[asciilifeform]: ~140% in 1980 apparently.
asciilifeform: ~nobody saves in orc currencies afaik, even in orcistans