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(trilema) mike_c: next time i beat the horse i will have a simulator in hand to show how the alternate model works.
(trilema) mike_c: I agree weight of some type is important. but we beat that horse dead a couple weeks ago.
(trilema) mike_c: that would work better with bitbet v2 without a linear weight
(trilema) mike_c: and bitbet is welcome for the audit :) my fee is 0.061 btc.
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, all those prop bets with terrible odds at the bookie would be much better on bitbet like "team to win the championship" or super bowl props.
(trilema) mike_c: i agree with mp, once football bets are popular on bitbet we will know the gold rush is over.
(trilema) mike_c: so looks like it got one bet other than you
(trilema) mike_c: too many nerds on bitbet for football
(trilema) mike_c: no bitbet
(trilema) mike_c: hah. the vegas line is +295.
(trilema) mike_c: 11 point spread and 4.2 money line? that does sound attractive.
(trilema) mike_c: pankkake: agreed. not hard to tweak anyway.
(trilema) mike_c: yes, and highcharts. obviously.
(trilema) mike_c: hardly a compromise
(trilema) mike_c: i'm more interested in the identity side though. what's the right compromise for allowing attribution to commenters without making them create an account?
(trilema) mike_c: not sure how trilema's works, but it seems a reasonable compromise.
(trilema) mike_c: it's not that they can't handle, just raises the bar for doing so. you'll get fewer comments.
(trilema) mike_c: that is a good idea. identity friendly, if not user friendly.
(trilema) mike_c: stackoverflow tried to use it. i was surprised that didn't work.
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, with a master signing key you keep in the garden it would work
(trilema) mike_c: until your dog hits the kill switch
(trilema) mike_c: openid for the win?
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, but so is having 500 different sets of credentials
(trilema) mike_c: hey jurov, different topic: last month I unintentionally tested out what we were discussing. and you can not lose more on a sold put than your collateral.
(trilema) mike_c: they are only serving US "to start". of course, they can't start until they finish their website. yet they are projecting 21 btc profit next month.
(trilema) mike_c: i don't see how they could be competitive from the start. they don't have any economies of scale. do they have some magic formula for cheap customer acquisition? i don't see it.
(trilema) mike_c: heh. of course they reserve the right to change that.
(trilema) mike_c: "Each MS unit is entitled to no less than 70% of profits in dividend payouts"
(trilema) mike_c: how could they possibly compete with the established players when they have to pay out at least 70% of their profits as dividends?
(trilema) mike_c: mintspare = insane.
(trilema) mike_c: was that for the record? ;)
(trilema) mike_c: and a landlord who will take you. i guess if you're in the business of quick evictions you don't worry about reliability much. turnover is a bitch though.
(trilema) mike_c: more like 550 probably
(trilema) mike_c: that's not realistic. would need to get money to fix it up
(trilema) mike_c: i am surprised that there is such a group of people that are qualified to rent a home for $700 a month but can't get a $70k mortgage. seems depressing, but I guess there are much worse things in the world.
(trilema) mike_c: which is well above what a mortgage payment would cost. craziness.
(trilema) mike_c: what would you get in rent for that?
(trilema) mike_c: not in this channel.
(trilema) mike_c: don't you get the same answer every time you ask that here? :)
(trilema) mike_c: this jury of one would say to the losing bettors: you should have complained at the time and said it was only a LOI.
(trilema) mike_c: Official announcement of acquisition is not the same as announcement of non-binding LOI. tough one to resolve, probably was a bad bet.
(trilema) mike_c: you probably had the 'open' filter selected
(trilema) mike_c: happy new year! (to GMT+01)
(trilema) mike_c: practically free!
(trilema) mike_c: 25 with referral
(trilema) mike_c: yes. stop ruining my 'i want'.
(trilema) mike_c: hah. anyone i would trust more than me I couldn't afford.
(trilema) mike_c: no, web server. i am sick of sys-admin'ing.
(trilema) mike_c: let me know when it arrives.
(trilema) mike_c: i want a turnkey hack-proof web server.
(trilema) mike_c: "Part of the FINCEN guidelines are establishing a sufficient anti money laundering program. BTC-e has none." < from random internet poster. fwiw.
(trilema) mike_c: he will steal their super bowl rings
(trilema) mike_c: putin will fuck with whoever he wants.
(trilema) mike_c: they are russian. that feels like an anwer.
(trilema) mike_c: one who has done a decent amount of due diligence
(trilema) mike_c: it's complicated. not cheap to get the statistics, and the algorithms to price players isn't easy.
(trilema) mike_c: i'm surprised the pcb wasn't damaged. i guess those things are pretty resilient.
(trilema) mike_c: wow, impressive resurrection
(trilema) mike_c: and I'll email them and ask them whether they are pro-life or pro-choice.
(trilema) mike_c: well for the record, they do still seem to be maintaining their all-time list at http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/csv/
(trilema) mike_c: i will take the silence as "yes, idiot, everyone already knew that".
(trilema) mike_c: first unix time is 1387390488, which is pretty far from 1386901071
(trilema) mike_c: their docs still say yes, but the api seems to say no.
(trilema) mike_c: sanity check: bitcoincharts won't give historical trade data anymore? correct?
(trilema) mike_c: funniest part of that article: nakowa donated 10btc to the people in the chat room at the time, including the author. the author proceeded to gamble it away immediately.
(trilema) mike_c: i assumed we were not connecting semantically on the challenge. i did it for fun :)
(trilema) mike_c: it's pretty counter. i'm up like 100-0
(trilema) mike_c: what, a counter-bot has to be complicated? :)
(trilema) mike_c: exactly! much more fun.
(trilema) mike_c: so you can play as normal, except it hints you what to press next
(trilema) mike_c: hang on, creating html file you can download and play locally
(trilema) mike_c: this is better!
(trilema) mike_c: i just did :)
(trilema) mike_c: i can provide strings of arbitrary length
(trilema) mike_c: you have JS on at all? i could publish the html/js somewhere else
(trilema) mike_c: oh, you can't see it
(trilema) mike_c: you can just play and win
(trilema) mike_c: i could publish an arbitrary number of long strings of numbers that win
(trilema) mike_c: um, not sure exactly what the challenge was. i'm done!
(trilema) mike_c: this is educational as well. i am surprised at the patterns that fool it.
(trilema) mike_c: done. go.
(trilema) mike_c: hehe. well, i could write a counter-bot pretty quickly since he provided the source code.
(trilema) mike_c: ozbot is a good robot that does what its told. ascii's robot reads my mind in uncomfortable ways.
(trilema) mike_c: fuck! i hate that mindreading robot.
(trilema) mike_c: PR stunt: pit cardano against that website that guesses your number
(trilema) mike_c: anybody qualified would be expensive!
(trilema) mike_c: outsourcing evangelism is tough for such a technical product.
(trilema) mike_c: not really bad. but conclusion is that he's not plunking any money down on mpex. now he has a company listed there.
(trilema) mike_c: wow that link on ascii dissecting mpex. I guess a few things have changed since february.
(trilema) mike_c: a performance bonus for raising capital?
(trilema) mike_c: hehe carol: Known more for his romantic misadventures than for any leadership skills,
(trilema) mike_c: who are the top 5 people who hurt romania?
(trilema) mike_c: that bubble has already started popping though. the "series A crunch" is the term for the million crappy startups that are dying.
(trilema) mike_c: and ycombinator is the thin silver on top of the 1000 yc copycats.
(trilema) mike_c: yes. you have to start higher to crash that low.
(trilema) mike_c: hah. good point. they will pay you to take housing in detroit.
(trilema) mike_c: so, income stream, ok. good luck outpacing btc appreciation.
(trilema) mike_c: it will also never be worth much more.
(trilema) mike_c: it is a btc divestment.
(trilema) mike_c: it's turning btc into housing. i don't see how that will work out.
(trilema) mike_c: please. having to hire a lawyer, real estate agent, title company, escrow agent, etc, etc. is totally reasonable!
(trilema) mike_c: whatever is inflating is removed from the inflation statistics.
(trilema) mike_c: hah. 1300 would be awesome. i paid 2100 in CA.
(trilema) mike_c: well, if it is true in the midwest, it is likely related to the fact that nobody can get a mortgage anymore in the us.
(trilema) mike_c: i've been renting for 15 years and have not found that to be true.
(trilema) mike_c: excellent pr skillz prevented a freefall :)
(trilema) mike_c: re: translations. I have had good success with programmatically getting good human translations from http://gengo.com/.
(trilema) mike_c: so the good news, as far as i can tell, is that you have to be decrypting a known, specially crafted message.
(trilema) mike_c: that pasted poorly
(trilema) mike_c: acoustic spectrum over hundreds of milliseconds"
(trilema) mike_c: amplifed over many thousands of iterations, resulting in a gross leakage effect that is discernible in the
(trilema) mike_c: iteration of that loop is much too fast for direct acoustic observation, but the efect is repeated and
(trilema) mike_c: zero to appear frequently in the innermost loop of the algorithm, where it afects control fow. A single
(trilema) mike_c: cancellations deep inside GnuPG’s modular exponentiation algorithm. This causes the special value
(trilema) mike_c: tldr: "In a nutshell, the key extraction attack relies on crafting chosen ciphertexts that cause numerical
(trilema) mike_c: that is actually the crux of the paper.
(trilema) mike_c: the gain is proof of your system, right? unless you are expecting to get hacked and the gain is for you to learn about holes.
(trilema) mike_c: you mean no bounty?
(trilema) mike_c: on a different topic, what happened to your hack challenge mikael? still going to do it?
(trilema) mike_c: ok. good luck. i think you're playing with fire, but hopefully you make it.
(trilema) mike_c: if that is the direction you are headed, you are not going to want the monkey on your back of a thousand tiny btc investors.
(trilema) mike_c: you are investing in real estate. forget about btc. go find USD investors.
(trilema) mike_c: who suggested ciphertrade.
(trilema) mike_c: ciphertrade.. that exchange that hasn't launched yet. i have this bad feeling about where you're headed.
(trilema) mike_c: good luck getting BTC investors to send in proof of residence :)
(trilema) mike_c: any crowdfunded/btc-funded raise is going to be legally challenging in the US
(trilema) mike_c: tough to avoid legal issues when raising capital
(trilema) mike_c: you run rentalstarter, right? you could probably list on havelock.
(trilema) mike_c: mircea popescu, founder of mpex
(trilema) mike_c: dexX7 just posted to a link to a paper describing what you want
(trilema) mike_c: lol. india responds by "canceling duty-free liquor deliveries to the [US] embassy".
(trilema) mike_c: lots of curry
(trilema) mike_c: heh. bitcoin company recipe: "1) first, ipo"
(trilema) mike_c: and people buy this..
(trilema) mike_c: it probably sounds even better in chinese
(trilema) mike_c: menthol? that is painful just to read.
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, white & black? bullshit.
(trilema) mike_c: that image is photoshopped. the price curve wasn't that smooth.
(trilema) mike_c: good post :) i spent way too long trying to parse the x.eur contract yesterday
(trilema) mike_c: <troll>i was just thinking that there aren't enough bloggers in the world.</troll>
(trilema) mike_c: bitcoins for beer. that $10k btc bet will be a lock.
(trilema) mike_c: it should be on coinion, but it's atcually derp.
(trilema) mike_c: i'll think on it some more. and can maybe explain more clearly.
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, i just feel like we're talking about tcp KEEP_ALIVE and deciding it's too complicated :) even tcp is complicated.
(trilema) mike_c: if this were a simple problem we wouldn't be talking about it. simple designs are great, but limiting.
(trilema) mike_c: and the fact that you would need to potentially return money.
(trilema) mike_c: if it can be done without accts, all the better. just sorting incoming bets is the problem.
(trilema) mike_c: similar to the calculator on BB right now
(trilema) mike_c: the mm is just a help to see what you're getting.
(trilema) mike_c: so it doesn't need to be mpex
(trilema) mike_c: except the order of magnitude is lower
(trilema) mike_c: then its the same as mpex
(trilema) mike_c: i mean like having balances on BB
(trilema) mike_c: this may not be possible without accounts.. which i guess makes it no good for BB.
(trilema) mike_c: ah, block time isn't dependable?
(trilema) mike_c: i meant bet time on BitBet, but you reuse addresses, so you won't always have that.
(trilema) mike_c: same block, sort by bet time?
(trilema) mike_c: lemme think on sorting.
(trilema) mike_c: yes.. well, JD creamed satoshi-dice because having an account has advantages :)
(trilema) mike_c: you have to refund I guess. I'm on bitbet, i say "i want 10btc of dems at up to 0.2 per share". You generate an address and in your DB mark it as a limit order at 0.2. if you can only fill 5btc of it you have to send the other 5 back..
(trilema) mike_c: unless something seems way off to you. like the idea of putting in a limit order.
(trilema) mike_c: it's right. i feel it. i'll build a simulation.
(trilema) mike_c: and now you bet the other side.
(trilema) mike_c: nobody unhappy, because if that whale gets in before you, you just don't get filled
(trilema) mike_c: you basically put in a limit order. "buy up to 10btc of shares at up to 0.2 each"
(trilema) mike_c: so the right time to bet is when i feel the odds are wrong, which isn't really the case right now
(trilema) mike_c: and am incented to do so quickly, before someone else does
(trilema) mike_c: now i can buy profitable dem shares again
(trilema) mike_c: 0.7 on dems, then 10 on reps
(trilema) mike_c: that is, say the situation went differently.
(trilema) mike_c: but shares do not devalue with time in this scheme.
(trilema) mike_c: first off, that is currently the situation with BB. betting early on a high volume bet is a guaranteed win.
(trilema) mike_c: whereas right now an imbalance means nothing
(trilema) mike_c: and if you see an imbalance, you are incented to act quickly
(trilema) mike_c: not exactly. the bet should always, throughout its lifetime, float around its current probability
(trilema) mike_c: yes. that's the beauty.
(trilema) mike_c: 0.7 early -> 6.26 0.5 mid -> 3.13 0.7 late -> 0.9
(trilema) mike_c: er, so you said the losers
(trilema) mike_c: company decision. it can be done so that all the money is split, or only the losers money.
(trilema) mike_c: with BB having seeded 3 shares
(trilema) mike_c: er, heres my math: shares: (7 + 3.5 + 1) = 11.5 shares (0.7 + 0.5 + 0.7) = 1.9 btc on dems
(trilema) mike_c: you get like 1 share
(trilema) mike_c: um, 3.5 to his 7, yes
(trilema) mike_c: you get half as many as the 0.7 has
(trilema) mike_c: as would this. you are buying shares in dems. later, money comes in on reps, your intrinsic share value goes up
(trilema) mike_c: just like bbv1
(trilema) mike_c: so coming in and dropping 10btc on a bet with only 0.3 on the other side, not so great.
(trilema) mike_c: wag: you would get about as many shares as 0.7 has (if 0.7 was on dems)
(trilema) mike_c: gimme a sec :)
(trilema) mike_c: m = M1[e^(n\n2) - 1]
(trilema) mike_c: if i guess the bridge will fall down when you drive over it.
(trilema) mike_c: ok, lemme figure it.
(trilema) mike_c: in my mind it works. i may not be explaining correctly
(trilema) mike_c: i give up.
(trilema) mike_c: i can specify, just can't do the integral off the top of my head.
(trilema) mike_c: it's basically an algorithmically generated order book for shares in 'dems win'
(trilema) mike_c: you will be able to see when you place your bet. it will say "1 share: 0.1 btc, 1 more share: 0.2 btc, 1 more share: 0.5 btc"
(trilema) mike_c: no, it's all math
(trilema) mike_c: you get x shares of 'dems winning'
(trilema) mike_c: but that share price is an integral
(trilema) mike_c: now there will be a share price for each one (there are a variety of pricing functions) to buy a share in each outcome
(trilema) mike_c: BB seeds with 0.6, 0.4
(trilema) mike_c: let's say the democrats when the next US pres election
(trilema) mike_c: well, i think parimutuel wagering on mathematical things is silly :)
(trilema) mike_c: the nice thing about is that you don't need a time weight. early bettors get better odds, and it will naturally get squeezed off when the market knows the event is decided.
(trilema) mike_c: if there is sufficient interest from people i can work up a simulation.
(trilema) mike_c: it does, however, allow you to sell your shares if you want
(trilema) mike_c: except, there is always buy-liquidity from the opposing side
(trilema) mike_c: and there is no market-maker
(trilema) mike_c: but not, because it's not just an open market
(trilema) mike_c: bettor would basically put in a limit order
(trilema) mike_c: so everyone knows its fair
(trilema) mike_c: but the order book is filled with the algorithmically determined prices
(trilema) mike_c: can't be done. it's like an order book
(trilema) mike_c: and when an event is basically decided, share prices go through the roof on that side
(trilema) mike_c: so early bettors get better prices
(trilema) mike_c: price of shares will be driven to whatever probability is currently expected.
(trilema) mike_c: basically you buy shares in the outcome (this is not tradesports). share price is based on the current proportion of bets. so buying one share costs 0.1, but buying two shares cost 0.22, etc.
(trilema) mike_c: i'll ask havelock. probably tomorrow.
(trilema) mike_c: ok.. i think i understand enough to design bitbet v2.
(trilema) mike_c: carefully?
(trilema) mike_c: how could i possibly open a pdf from someone i know could hack the shit out of me if he wanted to?
(trilema) mike_c: it's got some good proposals for how to do it. i'm working on the tl;dr.
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