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mats: Lol
mats: there were also recent reports that binance was in talks to hq in dubai
asciilifeform: verisimilitude: see also.
asciilifeform: mats: asciilifeform finds interesting the continued disdain for btc in ru (and not merely among officials, who run own 'printer, brrr' and one'd expect, but among commoners) -- is seen as instrument of foreign domination
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-02-28 22:28:51 asciilifeform: continuing w/ this pov -- exactly 0 stopped ru from at any pt in past decade demanding btc payment for gas etc
asciilifeform: ... for the most part, afaik, because most of the 'hodl's -- foreign. but also no small part because requires gear and softs imported from infidel lands ( orcs spectacularly failed to bake own since su collapse )
dulapbot: Logged on 2020-08-22 14:54:51 asciilifeform: even today, infamous 'elbrus' is fabbed in tw, at tmsc co.
dulapbot: (trilema) 2017-05-11 asciilifeform: presently i'm not convinced that 'baikal' cpu exists -- experience suggests that it's an elbrus, a small handful of physical items for ru army and a large stack of imaginary bezzle cpus which actually turned into swiss gold and florida mansions for various scum instead of into cpu
dulapbot: (trilema) 2017-01-26 asciilifeform: and why even the advertised elbrus sits on 100% taiwanese chipset.
asciilifeform: ... over9000 folx there in fact associate very idea of 'free movement of money' w/ oligarchs
asciilifeform: $ticker btc usd
busybot: Current BTC price in USD: $39014.67
asciilifeform: !w poll
watchglass: Polling 15 nodes...
watchglass: 94.176.238.102:8333 : Could not connect!
watchglass: 205.134.172.4:8333 : (172-4.core.ai.net) Alive: (0.030s) V=70001 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.7.0.1/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461
watchglass: 205.134.172.6:8333 : (172-6.core.ai.net) Alive: (0.081s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=727461
watchglass: 54.39.156.171:8333 : (ns562940.ip-54-39-156.net) Alive: (0.112s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461
watchglass: 205.134.172.28:8333 : Alive: (0.083s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=727461 (Operator: whaack)
watchglass: 71.191.220.241:8333 : (pool-71-191-220-241.washdc.fios.verizon.net) Alive: (0.154s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461 (Operator: asciilifeform)
watchglass: 205.134.172.27:8333 : Alive: (0.144s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461 (Operator: asciilifeform)
watchglass: 208.94.240.42:8333 : Alive: (0.204s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461
watchglass: 54.38.94.63:8333 : (ns3140226.ip-54-38-94.eu) Alive: (0.333s) V=88888 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.8.88.88/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461
watchglass: 82.79.58.192:8333 : (static-82-79-58-192.rdsnet.ro) Alive: (0.325s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461
watchglass: 103.6.212.28:8333 : Alive: (0.492s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Return Addr=0.0.0.0:8333 Blocks=289641 (Operator: whaack)
watchglass: 75.106.222.93:8333 : Alive: (0.508s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727461
watchglass: 103.36.92.112:8333 : (terebe.ns01.net) Alive: (0.294s) V=99999 (/therealbitcoin.org:0.9.99.99/) Jumpers=0x1 (TRB-Compat.) Blocks=727462
watchglass: 205.134.172.26:8333 : Busy? (No answer in 100 sec.)
watchglass: 143.202.160.10:8333 : Busy? (No answer in 100 sec.)
asciilifeform: ... cement testbed at 637+k.
mats: https://archive.ph/bZxda Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales
signpost: mats: iirc india also de-dollarizing.
signpost: oops.
signpost: in other lulz, vxx halted trading several times today
asciilifeform never heard of 'vxx'
signpost: barclays stock volatility gambling instrument
asciilifeform: inferred from context as much
asciilifeform cheers for whatever hints of definancialization -- but long road imho
asciilifeform: meanwhile in 'great firewall' lulz: ru ministry of censorship 'blocked 20 vpns'
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-04 15:41:33 asciilifeform: worth noting, there's ftr 4 basic levels of 'great firewall' :
signpost: asciilifeform: yep, most extreme case of "the dip's over, right bro?" oughta be when the entire currency system takes its terminal shit.
asciilifeform: signpost: at some pt errything 'takes its terminal shit' neh
signpost: while RU might not be buying BTC broadly yet, seems like Au is getting snapped up.
signpost: yep, of course
asciilifeform: signpost: well, putin cancelled sales tax on au
signpost: that's smart. re: BTC, I expect that folks that could used it to get out into UAE or wherever.
asciilifeform: at same time, it still gets bought & sold at 'official' exch rate set by central bank. so not exactly a 'remonetization of au'
asciilifeform: signpost: they could, if weren't allergic
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-15 10:45:24 asciilifeform: mats: asciilifeform finds interesting the continued disdain for btc in ru (and not merely among officials, who run own 'printer, brrr' and one'd expect, but among commoners) -- is seen as instrument of foreign domination
signpost: one sees this with the US rednecks that'd otherwise be aligned too.
signpost: hoarding gold and silver, but BTC is a tool of Soros et al.
asciilifeform: somehow e.g. reich's hoard of au etc ~not~ tool of soros, go figure
signpost: btc's next phase, if it comes, gotta come from sovereigns that get a clue, not democratic great awakening
signpost: so not losing sleep over these
asciilifeform: it's entirely unsurprising tho, that difficult to sell ru (king or slave) on btc, or 'redneck', etc on btc, when his only experience with pc is arsebook running on win11
signpost: yeah, isn't based on a totally batshit heuristic.
asciilifeform: add to this, that there's ~0 mining capacity afaik in ru, and likely to stay this way (given that ru pissed away semiconductor manufacture long ago). so they aint wrong to view it as a kind of usd
signpost: in other shitcoins, fuck these wavian nato jerry cans
signpost: right, and chicoms want them using digital yuan
asciilifeform: signpost: the 1s where the spout dun fit? indeed, is why one still sees original wermacht antiques for coupla hundy
signpost: yeah, I got one with a dud cap, broke the shit out of it on first close
signpost: others are... eh, fine
asciilifeform: they rust, too (when water in it; but ~all petrol in usa contains water, given as it's soluble in the mandatory ethyl adulterant)
signpost put in some stabilizer, and got non-ethanol, but probably still so
asciilifeform: will know when it rusts (or doesn't)
signpost: will hitch the cats to the bicycle and whip otherwise, lol
asciilifeform surprised that signpost's fleet dun run on diesel
signpost: iirc hilux was the only toyota diesel truck stateside until recently, preferential to tundras
signpost: er rather, only diesel, not available stateside
signpost: 2022 tundra is apparently available in diesel, but with bluetooth/cellular-clipperisms galore
asciilifeform: afaik ~all new autos in usa w/ clipperisms, for ~decade nao
signpost: yeah, riding in an older tundra currently
signpost: probably snag an old 4runner soon
signpost: there's a point past which my prepperism will turn to "meh, this is no longer a civilization, and not likely to be one for a few hundred years"
signpost: not there yet, but puts an outer bound on how much battery I'm willing to charge.
signpost parked the relocation project for now, as Texas at least produces food locally in abundance (though, let's see how the fertilizer thing goes...)
PeterL: Is texas dependent on the non-renewing aquifer for irrigation, or is that only farther north on the plains?
signpost: PeterL: no, depletion's definitely a problem that we'll bump into first, then panic about later.
signpost: for some resources there aren't a lot of places to hide left.
signpost: there are noises being made about desalination, but not sure how much capacity that'd create.
asciilifeform wonders how much there actually is a 'culture of metals' among the 'red usa', and how much is simply max keiser et al pushing ag (which they loaded up on cheaply after kodak bust) via roomtemp iq targeted press
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-15 14:55:13 signpost: hoarding gold and silver, but BTC is a tool of Soros et al.
dulapbot: Logged on 2021-08-16 21:10:22 asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-08-16#1052661 << at the risk of repeating the obvious -- the roomtemp iq folx have fundamental problems, usg won't need to shoot'em, can cancel their wallmart.welfare.cards any day of the week and they know it. monsantoburgers dun grow on trees (not that iq70 folx necessarily remember how to plant a tree. or that one'd grow in their blightlands if were to be planted..)
asciilifeform: ... or for that matter how relevant are metals, btc, etc to folx whose 'savings' -- if exist at all -- tend to be denominated in sofa cushion loose change which escaped latest trip to liquor store
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084358 << who wouldn't wanna buy a ticket to 'civilization' heh
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-15 15:08:08 signpost: there's a point past which my prepperism will turn to "meh, this is no longer a civilization, and not likely to be one for a few hundred years"
asciilifeform: ... from reich pov, plebes having savings is a bug, similarly to resistive losses in electric cable. 'pieces of yacht that got diverted'
asciilifeform: and it's been quite effective at collecting'em via brrr
asciilifeform: even on other end -- e.g. putin's au gambit is rather transparent scheme to get folx to sequester rub in illiquid metal, rather than bidding up increasingly scarce goodies
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-15 14:52:42 asciilifeform: signpost: well, putin cancelled sales tax on au
asciilifeform: usg would prolly be pulling similar stunt if its subjects ~had~ savings
mats: bitcoin just isn't big or liquid enough to support an ru pleb valve
mats: maybe before the decade is out though
signpost: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084365 << certainly *all* demographic groups in USA are fandoms following charlatans.
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-15 15:38:39 asciilifeform: wonders how much there actually is a 'culture of metals' among the 'red usa', and how much is simply max keiser et al pushing ag (which they loaded up on cheaply after kodak bust) via roomtemp iq targeted press
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-15 15:51:33 asciilifeform: ... from reich pov, plebes having savings is a bug, similarly to resistive losses in electric cable. 'pieces of yacht that got diverted'
signpost: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084376 << the block reward schedule has long seemed a guess, probably far from optimal.
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-15 16:03:59 mats: bitcoin just isn't big or liquid enough to support an ru pleb valve
signpost: supply chokes, then TWANG.
signpost isn't the genius of finance to properly tune it either.
PeterL: one of those things where you don't know the best way to do it until you try, and then it is too late to change it
mats: i dont think its the rewards, miners sell relatively low qty of it to begin with
mats: people just have no interest in selling
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084378 << at one pt asciilifeform was spam-subscribed to 'red' flavour of liquishit, found interesting the particular charlatans working that niche
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-15 16:22:51 signpost: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084365 << certainly *all* demographic groups in USA are fandoms following charlatans.
asciilifeform: mats: indeed, but most buyer have similarly no interest in ~buying~ (genuine coin, that is. they're buying gox chits)
asciilifeform found interesting that that's what comes out of 'btc atm' for instance
asciilifeform naively thought you can hammer in an addr an' see coin there -- mnope
mats: depends on the btm operator
asciilifeform: mats: the 1s around here -- give you what amts to a gox giftcard
mats: i've used plenty that will consume an address encoded in a qr
asciilifeform: neato. not seen any like that here
mats: actually annoying to use if you don't have a bog standard smartphone wallet that generates compatible qr
asciilifeform: the gox-atm thing is actually pretty clever from chumpatronic pov, in moar ways than one -- if plebe is utterly clueless and has nfi wat to do with the chit, his 'purchase' costs vendor nuffin, is pure usd donation
asciilifeform: mats: it won't scan paper ?
mats: it can, but you have to work out which qr encoding it'll eat first
asciilifeform naively thought there's a 'standard' prb encoding
mats: i forget the specifics, but i actually just gave up after a few tries, couldn't figure out what the machine wanted from me
asciilifeform: 'spreading -- worx!'(tm)(r)(c)
mats: went and bought a burner then moved the coin off it
mats: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-02-10#1078697 << "At time of writing [February 22, 2021], miner deposits make up about 5.5% of exchange inflows. While most miner selling is done OTC, this number is likely upward-biased due to the wide net cast by the 1-hop heuristic, meaning the true on-exchange sell pressure provided by miners is probably even lower."
signpost: mats: think they lever up enough to get to the next halving?
signpost could see this being the case
mats: why would they need to do that?
verisimilitude: Define ``lever up''.
signpost: assuming power's not free for e.g. riot blockchain, eventually they have costs to cover.
signpost: presumably they're avoiding selling with loans.
signpost: verisimilitude: leverage is a euphemism for using debt to amplify a bet
mats: oh, right, i did read about miners taking loans
verisimilitude: Oh, so it's borrowing money with which to gamble.
verisimilitude: I just didn't understand this shorthand.
signpost: sure, no problem.
mats: i haven't read sec filings by miners in some time
mats: more likely they just sell the coins they got
mats: hash has recovered since the exile of summer 2021
signpost slurps air through a straw
signpost: guess the loans aren't long enough, lol
mats: seems it'll take a while for the price to consolidate at 40-50
mats: lot of newbs hurting from unrealised losses at all time highs
mats: who are selling whenever there's a run
signpost: if there's a comparable bull run in the next cycle, assuming I have any, might make sense to roll a few off into other assets.
mats: dunno
mats: sometimes i see good deals in equities but i can't really shake the sense there'll be more disruptions in property rights
mats: in that sense there's no alternative to bitcoins
signpost: yeah, was more thinking a big wad of land somewhere outside a zone that's growing
signpost: but that yields negative until sold, of course.
signpost: just speculating here, no plans
signpost: assuming that central meddling increases over time seems a good bet.
signpost: on the subject of worse times ahead, several of our friends have suddenly come down with a severe thing that isn't covid or flu, one hospitalized.
signpost: a little weird.
signpost: mats: also man, I mostly assume that by the time guys like us think of a trade, the experts are already in that position ready to offload it onto us.
signpost: or will have their friends intervene when they're in trouble, like the vxx trade stoppage today.
mats: maybe
mats: some trades are big balls and time insensitivity
mats: stablecoins lending is still very profitable since institutions are shut out from participation, its quite the retail opportunity
mats: many chinese corps have deep per share discounts and very good books
mats: maybe its the end of a golden era of american and chinese cooperation and a new era of competition, or maybe not
signpost: not a lot of planet left. once we figure out who owns the contested parts, doubtful international trade will be prevented on ideological grounds.
mats: i should probably move money into an hkex brokerage and buy shares
signpost: and, I'd probably be more bullish on non-NATO markets given the WEF types want to try a shittier version of chicom-capitalism.
signpost: so they'll fuck that up a few times while the chinese get way further ahead.
signpost has that Schwab fuck's book enqueued.
mats: https://coinmetrics.substack.com/p/state-of-the-network-issue-146 "Adoption of US-dollar backed stablecoins has continued to accelerate with the total number of addresses holding at least $1 worth of the major stablecoins recently surpassing 12M – roughly three times the value from one-year ago."
mats: tether is just a little over half of the whole stablecoin market, receding relatively quickly to competitors
mats: wonder if there'll still be moaning when its just 1/3
signpost: hey mats, when are you going to stand up a blatta?
signpost: when the nukes start dropping I still want to argue about amateur-econ with ya
verisimilitude: Yeah, be radioactive coins more or less valuable than not?
signpost: verisimilitude: time for you to stand up a node too!
verisimilitude: I agree, but I want to write my Pest by myself.
shinohai: It's the ides of March verisimilitude you MUST settle your debt to me with radioactive coin.
verisimilitude: ĪDŪS MĀRTIAE EST
signpost: fair enough, totally worthwhile
signpost intends his own client as well, once a few other things pop out of the queue
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084437 << dept. of 'gain of function' doesn't sleep, eh
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-15 17:58:20 signpost: on the subject of worse times ahead, several of our friends have suddenly come down with a severe thing that isn't covid or flu, one hospitalized.
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084439 << normally they're the ones offloading, aha. see 'gamestop' etc
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-15 18:02:33 signpost: mats: also man, I mostly assume that by the time guys like us think of a trade, the experts are already in that position ready to offload it onto us.
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-15 18:06:53 mats: stablecoins lending is still very profitable since institutions are shut out from participation, its quite the retail opportunity
dulapbot: Logged on 2021-08-11 10:27:27 asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2021-08-11#1051943 << there are several, imho, processes, going in parallel, and not only 'uninnoculated rubes' such as orig. MMM buyers. for instance, many folx grow up with a solid 'no such thing as free lunch' upbringing, but the jumpers in their heads get pulled off when they get some lucky break (e.g. 2010s btc) and after this think 'what if there are bigger free lunche
asciilifeform: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-15#1084446 << already happening (reich collecting tribute from its satrapies != 'trade')
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-15 18:10:54 signpost: not a lot of planet left. once we figure out who owns the contested parts, doubtful international trade will be prevented on ideological grounds.
signpost: I mean that NATOstan will be begging for ru-sphere commodities before long.
signpost: and paying through the nose.
signpost: the idea that it'll punish CN also laughable.
mats: asciilifeform: well, its not
mats: gamestop wasn't a hedge fund driven scam either
mats: just a dumb crowded trade
signpost: I have a hard time believing wallstbets has no outside influence.
signpost: iirc the hedge fund they blew up with the gamestop episode was quickly snapped up by another.
signpost: seems at least suspct.
signpost: *suspect
signpost: http://logs.nosuchlabs.com/log/asciilifeform/2022-03-08#1083586 << the stepping-on was always there, will always be there.
dulapbot: Logged on 2022-03-08 20:25:43 mats: its a bit woke for my taste, but if you think the median man is garbage and needs stepping on, as i do, its sensible
signpost doesn't think the median man lacks for stepping, just terrible system for choosing steppers.
mats: the single biggest winner in the gamestop episode was the company
mats: the shares weren't worth more than $5/ea and still aren't, they got to raise iirc 1.5bn at absurd valuation and may even turn around the business with all of this new money
mats: if the expectation to maintain this valuation doesn't destroy them in the process
mats: you don't know what they paid for those shares
signpost: sorta missing my point.
signpost: "dumb crowded trade" implies no work to influence the crowding.
signpost: I doubt that; there's no way there aren't trust networks within finance capable of influence campaigns.
mats: maybe, but this isn't evidence
signpost: nor does it persuade me to trust something more comfortable, is all.
signpost: there is also such a thing as argument from a more general understanding of the world and its incentives.
mats: there was also a lot of dumb money crowding into doge, and then bitcoins
signpost: I think that also ignores a *ton* of effort to herd normies.
signpost: last wave of meat probably has a lot to do with elon, among other things.
signpost: isn't that the crowd doesn't happen to align and realize they can push on something. riots do happen. there's just an apparatus that is better than you at extracting value from these movements, aside predicting and amplifying them.
mats: thats why i'm saying that gamestop is the biggest beneficiary from the buying frenzy, not hedges
signpost: dunno that I have any problem with that.
mats: maybe elon collected from doge and bitcoin memeing, i don't know
signpost: perhaps my position is that USA actually has scams that put MMM to shame.
signpost: distributed ones in the heart and soul of every fat slob.
signpost: there doesn't need to be a centralized effort. the crowd will present its ass to the benefit of all who pass by.
mats: sure... uber, airbnb, turo, wework, theranos, nikola, paypal
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