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(trilema) mike_c: "A Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Market for Hedging, Wagering, and Information Aggregation"
(trilema) mike_c: this is really good:
(trilema) mike_c: steep curves late are the same as early closing imo
(trilema) mike_c: sometimes
(trilema) mike_c: yes. not unsolvable though.
(trilema) mike_c: which is still only a piece of it. because if someone drops that 1k bet down on my side my odds still tank
(trilema) mike_c: mircea_popescu: yeah, i was thinking about that. but its not like its not a cloudy soup right now.
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, i'll think it through.
(trilema) mike_c: thinking it through. i believe it is different because the guy who bets the first 10btc gets more than the guy who bets the last 10btc
(trilema) mike_c: only marginally. but if you auction off weight, it changes the dynamic a lot
(trilema) mike_c: not really
(trilema) mike_c: if you "buy" weight, it encourages you to 1) wait for more info, but 2) get in before someone else gets all the good weight
(trilema) mike_c: like, you bet 50btc, the weight drops 50k
(trilema) mike_c: it puts something of a cap on the bets, but whatever.
(trilema) mike_c: i'm warming up to the 'spend weight' idea
(trilema) mike_c: not sure that's any different than just closing early
(trilema) mike_c: tell him your code is C++, and therefore can't be a scam.
(trilema) mike_c: but now you get to enjoy the anticipation of being a billionaire again.
(trilema) mike_c: heh, right. the gox effect.
(trilema) mike_c: well, its posted on their site that they are requiring identification now
(trilema) mike_c: buffet says this is a good time to be greedy
(trilema) mike_c: coinbase is 1% too, although they aren't really an exchange.
(trilema) mike_c: plus, everytime i undercut the bot's margin I get beat up :)
(trilema) mike_c: yes. and obviously the option spreads are not insane since the bot gets beat up sometimes.
(trilema) mike_c: ok. you are saying mpoe spread over last 30 is 20% and btc is 50% (or more)
(trilema) mike_c: that is obviously for less volume, but you can still move a decent amount of mpoe shares for smaller price differences.
(trilema) mike_c: er, smaller.
(trilema) mike_c: that seems relatively bigger than the option spreads
(trilema) mike_c: spread of the s.mpoe share price
(trilema) mike_c: spread on mpoe is 0.00000036 right now. spread over last 30 days was 1000x that.
(trilema) mike_c: not universally. there are tight spreads on some things, like s.mpoe. tight spreads on options would require hedgin though
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, i agree that is the correct long-term thinking. which is the way you operate. I just wish for moar liquidity at times.
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, for double the collateral. idk.. probably a dumb late night thought. ignore me.
(trilema) mike_c: All MKOPT and MKFUT orders are assesed a 2% fee (SPLIT orders are free).
(trilema) mike_c: late night thought: the market maker writes almost all the options. it would be good for mpex if more people wrote options. so, the fee (not collateral) for writing options should be low low low (maybe even free??)
(trilema) mike_c: looking on mpex, no volume since then.
(trilema) mike_c: few days ago they were
(trilema) mike_c: it may change, but it was still revealing character-wise.
(trilema) mike_c: plus his posts on the forum have not inspired confidence.
(trilema) mike_c: really? neo "gets involved", communication is terrible, balances "adjusted". not a great reflection.
(trilema) mike_c: ^ nice. neobee made a great decision to get involved in this.
(trilema) mike_c: ah, thanks
(trilema) mike_c: are those curly braces new? what do they mean?
(trilema) mike_c: love btc bizness. same email: "would you like invest?" "would you like to be our customer support rep?"
(trilema) mike_c: that was like, 2 months ago!
(trilema) mike_c: hehe, this must be old.
(trilema) mike_c: you know, i tried urbit and asked for destroyers. never got an answer.
(trilema) mike_c: i can't tell if their webpage is broken or just really bad
(trilema) mike_c: it would be awesome if you published a trezor hack with the cardano release.
(trilema) mike_c: plus the rats would congregate there, leaving the rest cleaner
(trilema) mike_c: well, theirs will still work of course. google analytics for email is the only working solution.
(trilema) mike_c: wow the gmail images. that's kind of cool, and will break all email tracking beacons.
(trilema) mike_c: and track workers, which is most of the deaths
(trilema) mike_c: why waste money?
(trilema) mike_c: subway death / subway passengers < car death / car passengers
(trilema) mike_c: and live vermin.
(trilema) mike_c: nubbins`: sell snowflakes. http://www.shapeways.com/
(trilema) mike_c: cellphone miner:
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, couple weeks ago. don't hate me bingoboingo.
(trilema) mike_c: when is that cellphone-miner company launching? hopefully in the next 10 days.
(trilema) mike_c: 2 slow blocks.. not what we need.
(trilema) mike_c: you both lose
(trilema) mike_c: AI challenges..
(trilema) mike_c: proposed bitbet: "snackman will bet on the 1b difficulty bet after its decided"
(trilema) mike_c: ;;bc,stats
(trilema) mike_c: plus the fact that all their money will be gone within 1 year anyway.
(trilema) mike_c: somehow i doubt sfi investors are prepared for that.
(trilema) mike_c: limited partners buy into a vc fund and don't expect to see it back for 10 years
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, eating it seems bad: At Cray Research we used Flourinert extensively in the Tritons, and if we ever had a 'burn', where a circuit failed and heated it to boiling, we had to evacuate the building immediately, as the gas is the most powerful carcinogen known... 1 part in 5 billion if memory serves
(trilema) mike_c: he said he's not eating the chip.
(trilema) mike_c: even better use for fluorinert - fat free potato chips.
(trilema) mike_c: crazy. i'll put it at the bottom of the bucket list.
(trilema) mike_c: has a human ever tried to breathe fluorinert?
(trilema) mike_c: of course you don't see it, that's what makes it a secret wall
(trilema) mike_c: hah. that is true.
(trilema) mike_c: bandwith, telex, bullshit! if those are in short supply you can just download the homepage html. you don't need to download the css if you don't want. the browser just chooses to.
(trilema) mike_c: production delays could make it interesting.
(trilema) mike_c: but i guess a lot of miners come out next year
(trilema) mike_c: 34% a month for 6 months. seems close to me.
(trilema) mike_c: significantly over collateral of (110/90.0) = 1.2
(trilema) mike_c: ;;calc (110/30.0)-1
(trilema) mike_c: the other possibility would of course be that the option buyer just gets stiffed (like xdiff).
(trilema) mike_c: interesting. not a bad deal for the option writer. i don't really want to test it out though :)
(trilema) mike_c: doctor greg is bad for my blood pressure.
(trilema) mike_c: i'd be curious what the rules are, whether it comes from the option writer's account first or mpoe
(trilema) mike_c: unless i'm doing the math wrong, but i don't think i am.
(trilema) mike_c: i don't know where the money comes from.
(trilema) mike_c: you can be *liable* for more than your collateral to the option holder
(trilema) mike_c: well, i don't know where the extra money comes from, but i assume from your account if you have it.
(trilema) mike_c: when you write a put and sell it, you can lose more than your collateral.
(trilema) mike_c: like if i buy a put from you at 110, and the price drops to 5, you owe me (110/5) - 1 btc = 22btc
(trilema) mike_c: jurov, i decided you are wrong. you can lose more on a put than your collateral. i did the math and collateral only covers you for about a 50% drop.
(trilema) mike_c: not too shabby either
(trilema) mike_c: tiny, light, balanced.
(trilema) mike_c: or your local parking lot autocross club
(trilema) mike_c: good point on the deer.
(trilema) mike_c: hah. if it doesn't break down, a lotus is way more fun to drive than your average porsche or ferrari or whatever.
(trilema) mike_c: sorry socialists, but that car is awesome.
(trilema) mike_c: who is running the marketing department over there? easycoin sounds like alt-coin #4,220
(trilema) mike_c: except resellers, that sounds good
(trilema) mike_c: i read that three times, and.. i'm lost.
(trilema) mike_c: where they blue?
(trilema) mike_c: on the other hand, a consumer-focused broker like coinbr still needs that new logo we were promised
(trilema) mike_c: no difference, and nginx is awesome.
(trilema) mike_c: when people complain about the look of mpex.co I point them to http://nginx.org/
(trilema) mike_c: S.NSA realised no operating revenue this period, however is expected to realise operating revenue next period. << good news for yes on that shipping bitbet.
(trilema) mike_c: nice, thanks.
(trilema) mike_c: ah, nice. a good month to not spend btc :)
(trilema) mike_c: mircea_popescu, s.nsa november statement coming soon? i'm curious to see how much r&d cost.
(trilema) mike_c: coinbr is a good place to start
(trilema) mike_c: i just got back in. seems intermittent.
(trilema) mike_c: sheesh, the whole world is falling apart. bitbet down?
(trilema) mike_c: ;;bc,24hprc
(trilema) mike_c: ;;calc ((110 - 99.6) / 99.6) * 0.1
(trilema) mike_c: seems right..
(trilema) mike_c: why misquoting? It's willing to buy the put at .0104, and that is basically intrinsic value.
(trilema) mike_c: derp. i was looking at sell on the put page.
(trilema) mike_c: er. homepage says 0.01, put page says 0.05. that's a bug :)
(trilema) mike_c: price is half there what it is on the homepage
(trilema) mike_c: it's a bug
(trilema) mike_c: you accounting for the 0.1 lot size?
(trilema) mike_c: he wants tradesports
(trilema) mike_c: people are angry at you on the forums? hard to believe.
(trilema) mike_c: ;;bc,stats
(trilema) mike_c: unless its planting tomatoes or something.
(trilema) mike_c: i don't see how that prevents the semiconductor plants from being boss. they can still crank out the most work, regardless of what that work is.
(trilema) mike_c: asciilifeform said the nsa has a plant that does it
(trilema) mike_c: like you said, governments can crank out a new asic in a matter of weeks..
(trilema) mike_c: asciilifeform: i don't see how arbitrary work function helps. have you written something up on this? i'm missing the part where it keeps asics out of the game.
(trilema) mike_c: i value learning by experience, but the p/l graphs are definitely something you should understand before trading options.
(trilema) mike_c: at a higher price that is
(trilema) mike_c: yes, but you profit sooner
(trilema) mike_c: or on coinbr.com (mpex broker)
(trilema) mike_c: he's got all the bitcoins :) somebody would have to have all the fiat for it to be a ponzi.
(trilema) mike_c: somebody is typically holding all the money in a ponzi. who would that be?
(trilema) mike_c: tough to be a ponzi without somebody running the whole thing.
(trilema) mike_c: you mean pyramid scheme?
(trilema) mike_c: everybody ran to china to arbitrage and drove the price down :)
(trilema) mike_c: china is asleep at the wheel.
(trilema) mike_c: ;;premium btcn mtgox
(trilema) mike_c: nubbins speaks canadien
(trilema) mike_c: ^ hah! awesome
(trilema) mike_c: wow, 1400t this period. crazy.
(trilema) mike_c: how many erupters is that?
(trilema) mike_c: derp. got it.
(trilema) mike_c: jurov`: I don't see anywhere that you are at risk for max of collateral. not to nag, but what's your confidence on that?
(trilema) mike_c: ;;bc,24hprc
(trilema) mike_c: jurov`: is that true? i would expect that if the loss was higher than collateral the difference would come out of your mpex account.
(trilema) mike_c: right, selling has higher risk profile.
(trilema) mike_c: your options expire worthless, so you just lose what you paid.
(trilema) mike_c: otherwise you are exposed with the leftover btc
(trilema) mike_c: right, if you are shorting you want to only buy as many bitcoins as it takes to buy the number of options you want
(trilema) mike_c: agree with ThickAsThieves. while we had this conversation it went up another 1% :)
(trilema) mike_c: you make $15
(trilema) mike_c: see my example.
(trilema) mike_c: Buy 0.1 BTC for $110. Buy two P110T for 0.09 BTC. price drops to 500. Excercise for .24 btc. total btc is now 0.25 btc worth $125. go party with $15 gain.
(trilema) mike_c: thestringpuller:oh man whoever wrote those options is over exposed << not if they aren't speculating. if it is a miner hedging, then they aren't over-exposed.
(trilema) mike_c: no, even in dollars, that's the point. It's a hedge against bitcoin dropping
(trilema) mike_c: ThickAsThieves: you don't need margin to write/sell options on mpex. you just put up btc as collateral.
(trilema) mike_c: mpex bot must be a little butthurt from last month :) lot size is 0.1 now but it still quotes for 1000 contracts
(trilema) mike_c: i sent him 0.002, so it will be worth litigating in a year.
(trilema) mike_c: i'm not bitbet, but you're welcome.
(trilema) mike_c: i believe you
(trilema) mike_c: the "yes, i placed more bets on bitbet"
(trilema) mike_c: double the promised sum because i loved your answer
(trilema) mike_c: naw, hang on
(trilema) mike_c: transactions aren't instantaneous you know ;)
(trilema) mike_c: snackman: have some faith! my wallet is sync'ing. you'll have it soon.
(trilema) mike_c: same rationale as 3-way resolutions
(trilema) mike_c: he also drummed up a lot of new business
(trilema) mike_c: well, to the shareholders
(trilema) mike_c: mircea_popescu: are company reports exempt from fee?
(trilema) mike_c: bottom right is mpoe-pr
(trilema) mike_c: er, 0.001
(trilema) mike_c: if you want the 0.0001 btc i promised
(trilema) mike_c: awwww, sweet, i win. post address and i will send the donation
(trilema) mike_c: i will send you 0.001 btc if you answer me. it will help you recover.
(trilema) mike_c: cmon snack, fess up. you've place more bets haven't you :)
(trilema) mike_c: snackman: can you settle a bet for me. have you placed any more bets on bitbet yet?
(trilema) mike_c: right.. so you should not have done it.
(trilema) mike_c: seriously, if it is such an important amount of money why didn't you do a little research first? doesn't that seem wrong to you at all?
(trilema) mike_c: i always took the priority the opposite, that is - it is discouraging moving coins too much by giving recently spent coins lower priority
(trilema) mike_c: ah, i see your point. got it.
(trilema) mike_c: borrow and sell
(trilema) mike_c: well, that is the definition of a short
(trilema) mike_c: and he is gunna lose
(trilema) mike_c: nah, his help desk dork with btc is worth more than him now
(trilema) mike_c: bitbars are "rare", so the price of one doesn't mean much. market cap of all them is only $600k
(trilema) mike_c: not pullets any more
(trilema) mike_c: it's not a mining company
(trilema) mike_c: wouldn't want to be accused of being a shill and "associate" of jurov :)
(trilema) mike_c: coinbr.com
(trilema) mike_c: s.nsa has 1.2k market cap. 7c could buy it like, 20 times over.
(trilema) mike_c: senior editor at fortune is financial noob?
(trilema) mike_c: he was looking to short btc. just tell him to buy an atm put.
(trilema) mike_c: you really pissed this guy off!
(trilema) mike_c: well, if havelock is worth 50k, why not 23k for 7c?
(trilema) mike_c: like, forever
(trilema) mike_c: have him fix the html encoding on the trilema footnotes
(trilema) mike_c: stephengandel: 7,443 of these calls traded this month from mpex.co http://imgur.com/YnwH7PW
(trilema) mike_c: *served by a broker
(trilema) mike_c: pc arbitrage, nice.
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, its dumb
(trilema) mike_c: so there can be value in bidding under the reserve
(trilema) mike_c: mircea_popescu: sometimes they take the reserve off if it isn't met
(trilema) mike_c: ok, thanks
(trilema) mike_c: "no reserve" != "starting bid is 4btc"
(trilema) mike_c: is mechs trustworthy? no wot with that name.
(trilema) mike_c: is it safe to login to the forums again?
(trilema) mike_c: you'll know what they are thinking by whether they flame you on ebay
(trilema) mike_c: have you sold any yet? get any bad feedback?
(trilema) mike_c: the ceo spent 14 years as a lecturer. no tenure for him!
(trilema) mike_c: one of them has a suit and tie on. i'm sold.
(trilema) mike_c: havelock has strange meanings for a lot of terms
(trilema) mike_c: of course, it's a fund, not a company. perfect sense.
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