← | Results 7501 ... 7750 found in all logged channels for 'f:mike_c' | →
(trilema) mike_c: "that the Market Implied EPS Growth rate for S.MPOE is very, very high."
(trilema) mike_c: "We are talking a range of 126% - 170% here" << i read into this a tone saying it was too high. not what you were implying?
(trilema) mike_c: you said priced efficiently, no?
(trilema) mike_c: ;;later tell herbijudlestoids it would be interesting to analyze s.mpoe price based on 2012 earnings and then see how that analysis would have performed over 2013.
(trilema) mike_c: i love quants. "if we assume the market is correctly pricing this stock, then we can derive that this stock is overpriced" :)
(trilema) mike_c: !t h rent
(trilema) mike_c: hm, well, can you provide an example of a reason you would need to not be compliant?
(trilema) mike_c: i would say any website service that uses soap to communicate.
(trilema) mike_c: not sure i follow. you mean like soap?
(trilema) mike_c: xml is just a data format. if it's not being handwritten why not be strict?
(trilema) mike_c: sounds like.. html!
(trilema) mike_c: xml-ish :)
(trilema) mike_c: i hope eulora isn't rolling its own xml encoder/decoder. that sounds painful.
(trilema) mike_c: sounds like a kindred spirit doesn't he mp?
(trilema) mike_c: lol. true.
(trilema) mike_c: kako, defend that. "133" == "0133"
(trilema) mike_c: yes, drupal will save us
(trilema) mike_c: wait, isn't mtgox written in php? case closed.
(trilema) mike_c: int. no quotes.
(trilema) mike_c: seriously
(trilema) mike_c: double equal means "almost everything is equal"
(trilema) mike_c: it means "equal in type and value"
(trilema) mike_c: hah. please do.
(trilema) mike_c: it is. but node.js says that don't matter. you can build with anything.
(trilema) mike_c: r3wt. but don't worry, he's converting it to a custom lua engine
(trilema) mike_c: but he is not building a blog, he is building an exchange
(trilema) mike_c: it's not automatically insecure, it just tends that way. which is bad.
(trilema) mike_c: you don't see other languages accidentally crapping the source code all over the web when something goes wrong
(trilema) mike_c: mircea_popescu: here's one reason: "PHP is built to keep chugging along at all costs."
(trilema) mike_c: please don't call php secure
(trilema) mike_c: seriously... if (!$validity)
(trilema) mike_c: i like how it is "optimized" for all those things
(trilema) mike_c: re.sub("php", "bugridden")
(trilema) mike_c: and the ever famous !==
(trilema) mike_c: rabble rabble PYTHON rabble rabble
(trilema) mike_c: i held my tongue for like a whole page
(trilema) mike_c: sorry, just had to get a php crack in there
(trilema) mike_c: which noobery? using php?
(trilema) mike_c: so you don't all think JD is just crapping money: ROI from july -> november = 0% all the gains have been since then.
(trilema) mike_c: hmm, better process withdrawals first
(trilema) mike_c: hehe. me and nick szabo. no contest, he hasn't done anything in years!
(trilema) mike_c: and he writes good books
(trilema) mike_c: i don't! point being that the prize would be dwarfed by the recipients already worthy rewards from winning in the marketplace.
(trilema) mike_c: hehe. academics
(trilema) mike_c: we're not exactly acadmeics here
(trilema) mike_c: wouldn't that recipient have already amassed quite a sum by doing whatever he won the prize for?
(trilema) mike_c: benkay: yeah. not bad for 7 months.
(trilema) mike_c: except we publish the logs. gotta fix that.
(trilema) mike_c: that's an exclusive. nobody else haz that data
(trilema) mike_c: more JD stats you are all dying to know: ROI on money invested last July and left alone since then: 14.5%
(trilema) mike_c: it just doesn't take that much capital to scale to 100k. one good engineer is sufficient given the timeframe.
(trilema) mike_c: spent. with a P.
(trilema) mike_c: well, this guy just spent 50 btc looking. he hasn't found it yet :)
(trilema) mike_c: well, i guess i'm saying an exchange defined as "hft enabled" is not necessary. just a place to buy/sell.
(trilema) mike_c: as opposed to gox's "we keep your bitcoin" fee :)
(trilema) mike_c: it's not. $25k minimum.
(trilema) mike_c: what? you disagree?
(trilema) mike_c: second market is legally & reliably exchanging bitcoin. who needs an exchange for HFT quants? nobody.
(trilema) mike_c: well, they had monetary resources. not talent resources.
(trilema) mike_c: jurov, 0 -> 100k in a few years isn't that hard with appropriate resources (which they had)
(trilema) mike_c: well, it died from incompetence. herds of chumps is the only reason we are talking about them.
(trilema) mike_c: i think we all do in the same way we had an interest in SR failing. good for btc.
(trilema) mike_c: goxbux are worth less than 0.5 btc now..
(trilema) mike_c: you can edit-and-continue with some c++ debuggers. it even works 30% of the time.
(trilema) mike_c: i'm not going to look at that code anymore because I will have to renege on everything i said the other day and agree that a new reference build is high priority.
(trilema) mike_c: i mean, you know, if you didn't have anything else to do
(trilema) mike_c: you have the code though, right? you could build symbols and use them to analyze the dump
(trilema) mike_c: do you have symbols? I bet on this line: if (pnode->fDisconnect)
(trilema) mike_c: without having a repo, it doesn't seem hard to crash this if a null node gets in the node vector.
(trilema) mike_c: oh no. that's a lot of globals..
(trilema) mike_c: 2000 btc wagered in last few hours, and not surprisingly given how he is betting, he is down 23 btc, almost right on EV.
(trilema) mike_c: i guess people either don't think JD is correct, or are just deliberately giving their money away. this guy is firing off 100 bets per minute. i mean, that is just the astoundingly worst way to bet possible.
(trilema) mike_c: hah. might as well swing big
(trilema) mike_c: gratz bingo. make a bet today. b-day bets are always lucky.
(trilema) mike_c: so when mining pools distribute shares the coins are "spent" i guess?
(trilema) mike_c: and by "spent" they mean.. moved?
(trilema) mike_c: some guy just dropped 1k btc on jd. it was a ride.
(trilema) mike_c: assbot is lagged? he says 30188
(trilema) mike_c: !t h rent
(trilema) mike_c: ;;market sell --market bitstamp 5000
(trilema) mike_c: ATC is fifth highest volume on openex
(trilema) mike_c: it is in freefall
(trilema) mike_c: herb, i wasn't trying to rile you up. i was just commenting on you saying you didn't care because you lost $9. my point was that's the best kind of loss to learn from if you can.
(trilema) mike_c: nevermind, nevermind. anyway, the spread has gotten lower.
(trilema) mike_c: uh oh. don't get all sensitive again
(trilema) mike_c: <sigh> you want to learn your lessons when they only cost $9 or when they cost more?
(trilema) mike_c: omg. their order matching is horrible
(trilema) mike_c: herbijudlestoids: it is not complicated. you did not "make a profit". you entered a position.
(trilema) mike_c: so you made some profitable trades and now you're broke.
(trilema) mike_c: he said he already offloaded 1.6mn before that
(trilema) mike_c: HunterS sold a couple million ATC supposedly
(trilema) mike_c: not even close.
(trilema) mike_c: mircea_popescu: the "vendor expoliting tx malleability until our wallet was empty" was the silk road excuse, not the mtgox excuse i believe
(trilema) mike_c: Bugpowder: have you seen herbi's charts? I think he decided if you see between 7 and 9 downward ticks you buy immediately for fast profits!
(trilema) mike_c: you'll know it's not so random.
(trilema) mike_c: if i don't publish anything you'll know what the results were :)
(trilema) mike_c: he won 1 satoshi. he'll be rich soon.
(trilema) mike_c: who are these people betting 20 satoshis on JD? how is that fun?
(trilema) mike_c: that link redirected me to some scam site..
(trilema) mike_c: oh my. "The current version simply sends the appropriate packets to vulnerable cards and updates them"
(trilema) mike_c: benkay: yes, i just don't think a reference implementation counts as well defined. so TCP_KEEPALIVE is set to 100. why? was that picked intellignetly, randomly, or it doesn't really fking matter? you don't know from implementation.
(trilema) mike_c: herbijudlestoids: go find sturles. he sells small amounts of btc to help people establish wot.
(trilema) mike_c: 10k blocks of ATC have sold for 500 satoshi
(trilema) mike_c: s.nsa went cheap today. somebody got a great deal.
(trilema) mike_c: benkay: yes, i was just saying it is insufficient. it describes the process, but does not help you extend it or use it because you don't know any of the rationale. we worked the point over pretty good about an hour ago :)
(trilema) mike_c: who has nothing to do the rest of the year?
(trilema) mike_c: no doubt. we need bitcoin 2.0. same math, new code.
(trilema) mike_c: mircea_popescu: i don't get the joke, but i get your point.
(trilema) mike_c: hmm. we're talking about different jokes. i'm talking about bob the bridge builder
(trilema) mike_c: only the bridge builder one
(trilema) mike_c: it does not and should not.
(trilema) mike_c: asciilifeform: ok.. so you are saying reverse engineer instead of start from the top.
(trilema) mike_c: the fricking white paper came before the code
(trilema) mike_c: you don't build the perfect factory by starting to build the machines. you figure out the overall process first, the steps. then you build the robots.
(trilema) mike_c: yes. and perhaps satoshi could write that. barring that, i think the order should be: we agree on the rationale, then are capable of writing the kalishnikov version.
(trilema) mike_c: ok, i've beaten this horse.
(trilema) mike_c: yes, which is why i think the logic of bitcoin being organized is more important than the perfect implementation.
(trilema) mike_c: *something like
(trilema) mike_c: mircea_popescu: wait. i disagree. how are you supposed to learn the rationale? this is why something BingoBoingo collecting satoshi's mails are useful.
(trilema) mike_c: the problem is bitcoin has no competition. so we get away with doing a crappy job.
(trilema) mike_c: hmm. interesting point. it just makes for a bumpier ride.
(trilema) mike_c: and less important while we are applying our limited resources.
(trilema) mike_c: both necessary, but perfect implementation is insufficient.
(trilema) mike_c: but but, perfect implementation does not help you when you are adding things.
(trilema) mike_c: fpga that did blockchain parsing would completely ignore tx malleabiality (as it should). PEP would tell you WHY you are ignoring it, so when you are writing custom shit you don't mess it up.
(trilema) mike_c: my counterargument was that a formal definition (be it BNF or fpga) of those is less useful than an english spec explaining rationale.
(trilema) mike_c: feature freeze is fine, write PEPs for the features already existing :)
(trilema) mike_c: benkay: yes. need the why more than the how.
(trilema) mike_c: 2014 version: because you can withdraw your bitcoin
(trilema) mike_c: benkay: i decided we need PEPs first, not BNF.
(trilema) mike_c: custom shit is always necessary when you scale big.
(trilema) mike_c: if only they had a PEP to refer to when working on their custom shit.
(trilema) mike_c: let's get some PEP's in here.
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, me too.
(trilema) mike_c: A formal definition for protocol is necessary, but also insufficient. So now you know "how". But if you don't know "why", you are still going to end up fucked. The why is more important.
(trilema) mike_c: yeah.. not about understanding the notation. i can read assembly too, but i'd rather read C. but perhaps for something like the network protocol you're right.
(trilema) mike_c: ah :) i guess i'm saying i wouldn't want algebra or java to be the spec.
(trilema) mike_c: benkay: did you survive ddos? i wasn't asking rhetorically.
(trilema) mike_c: would you want to try and understand a complex system by reading BNF?
(trilema) mike_c: But what you end with is the same thing we have "the code is the spec".
(trilema) mike_c: whoa, we chased everyone away
(trilema) mike_c: yes, rational rose will convert UML to code. shitty code that is far from done.
(trilema) mike_c: so a UML diagram helps? I don't think it does.
(trilema) mike_c: it's the definiton & spec of what goes on in those states that is more needed.
(trilema) mike_c: any program can be thought of that way.
(trilema) mike_c: it being a state machine is an implementation detail. a definition and spec would make the world better.
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, so, i believe all the hairiness would be in implementing what goes on in those states anyway. i'm not sure structuring the high level stuff around states would neccesarily make it much cleaner.
(trilema) mike_c: take the blockchain validator for instance.
(trilema) mike_c: what are a couple states the machine would pass through? I don't see it.
(trilema) mike_c: it's not clicking why a state machine would make it great.
(trilema) mike_c: for now. once we get that cointerra hardware on the network the halving will happen soon.
(trilema) mike_c: i'm sure you could hire a stand-in for cheap
(trilema) mike_c: half of assets jumped into activemining to watch this :)
(trilema) mike_c: general public is going to do it now that sec restrictions have been lifted.
(trilema) mike_c: where is this lovefest taking place?
(trilema) mike_c: mpoe-pr fights the good fight for a healthy salary. i don't know why you bang your head against that wall.
(trilema) mike_c: watch out kako, votes on the forum are binding. you're going to have a new job before you know it.
(trilema) mike_c: looks like they are on top of things
(trilema) mike_c: hehe, i don't know what gfy is, but doing that just to piss someone off is great :)
(trilema) mike_c: whoa, what do you want to advertise that would mean buying out tpb? that's probably 300 btc a month.
(trilema) mike_c: i love fiverr. great for gag gifts.
(trilema) mike_c: i guess he hasn't heard of this channel.
(trilema) mike_c: psh, and i conjecture the sky is blue.
(trilema) mike_c: nethash was 240 ghs by our meager estimates earlier today
(trilema) mike_c: aren't all the btc foundation devs in jail by now?
(trilema) mike_c: so they can come to the rescue and appear relevant? i like it.
(trilema) mike_c: maybe that should be it. as verified by coinmarketcap. then if it never gets listed, it resolves as no
(trilema) mike_c: heh, nice. i was thinking along the lines of "an altcoin will be worth $1 in 2014", but verifying is hard.
(trilema) mike_c: really? for the real altcoin?
(trilema) mike_c: i tried to think of a good bitbet for Altcoin, but nothing crystallized.
(trilema) mike_c: as did BingoBoingo
(trilema) mike_c: i don't think there is actually a trophy. but mp put up a prize
(trilema) mike_c: someone has to pay for the trophy
(trilema) mike_c: did anyone end up winnign that tournament?
(trilema) mike_c: hardly seems worth the effort for 100k
(trilema) mike_c: pankkake is atc broker to the stars
(trilema) mike_c: make sure you buy some first ;)
(trilema) mike_c: better exchange is otc order book or #altcoin
(trilema) mike_c: i feel a herbirage coming on.
(trilema) mike_c: exactly. everybody loses money when learning cryptocurrency. i wish i had lost some ATC instead of BTC when learning.
(trilema) mike_c: yes, who would want to see evidence of a valid opposing viewpoint? :)
(trilema) mike_c: nubbins`: have you seen this guy's post? a counter-argument to altcoin is a bad thing.
(trilema) mike_c: it's virtually priceless.
(trilema) mike_c: hehe. expect comment soon
(trilema) mike_c: i think you are. even if you overbid it would fill at the lowest ask.
(trilema) mike_c: ? how did you manage that? or you mean it dipped?
(trilema) mike_c: too long withouta build.
(trilema) mike_c: well, s.mg trades at a higher revenue multiple than s.mpoe too. but i still think revenue will help :)
(trilema) mike_c: oh yeah, i was kidding. more volume will come with increasing revenue i believe.
(trilema) mike_c: turn on the hft. more volume instantly.
(trilema) mike_c: nobody wants to sell
(trilema) mike_c: well, cause/effect, whatever
(trilema) mike_c: so, that's why moar volume on mpoe :)
(trilema) mike_c: wow.. so, also since july 1 those trades meant 70,000 btc in volume on mpoe! and 203 btc on s.bbet.
(trilema) mike_c: ;;calc 1452230 / 10000000
(trilema) mike_c: ;;calc 80819516 / 1000000000
(trilema) mike_c: to redeem myself, since july 1:
(trilema) mike_c: pankkake: it's because s.mpoe is so huge. s.bbet actually has a higher share turnover over the last 6 months than s.mpoe.
(trilema) mike_c: no way, mine's much prettier
(trilema) mike_c: re: JD predictability of investor returns. trailing 7 day ROI: http://i.imgur.com/sOotZke.png
(trilema) mike_c: ^ it can't go any lower!
(trilema) mike_c: merchant of venice.
(trilema) mike_c: too bad nobody seems to put on that play. watching the movie instead seems like a bad idea.
(trilema) mike_c: ok, so by purchasing those options it did trigger a capital need that bondholders will collect interest on. right?
(trilema) mike_c: right, but mpoe had to buy them, where did that money come from?
(trilema) mike_c: mircea_popescu:nah cause they're sales see << maybe you were referring to something else
(trilema) mike_c: i will fish it out of logs
(trilema) mike_c: oh, so it only triggers a capital need if the price moves adversely?
(trilema) mike_c: you confused me the other day when you said the put sales didn't trigger a capital need by mpoe
(trilema) mike_c: before we shut it down, i've been trying to figure out how mpbor capital needs are calculated.
(trilema) mike_c: it only matters if investor returns on JD are predictable. which 1) they are if there are a bunch of small bettors, 2) they are not if there are whales.
(trilema) mike_c: yeah, but nobody cares what the rolls are, we care about investor returns.
(trilema) mike_c: that is greater than 1% edge.
(trilema) mike_c: the only concern for an investor would be that their computation method has an exploitable flaw
(trilema) mike_c: but rolls != volatility. rolls being uniformly distributed does not mean returns will be predictable.
(trilema) mike_c: and they are not uniformly distributed
(trilema) mike_c: but the risk on JD is all about the whales
(trilema) mike_c: that's only one piece of the risk though, volatility on mpbor is so unpredictable.
(trilema) mike_c: i know how to quantify jd risk. mpbor i'm still floundering a bit..
(trilema) mike_c: jd risk > mpbor risk
(trilema) mike_c: hm. how would you argue that? :)
(trilema) mike_c: it's been tracking pretty closely last few months
(trilema) mike_c: damn, JD investors kicking ass last few months. nov/dec/jan returns are 4%, 5.2%, 6.5%
(trilema) mike_c: hehe. fucktard press quotes could be as good as coinion. "bitcoin fatal flaw: transactions can't be reversed"
(trilema) mike_c: the blockchain is log.bitcoin-assets.com
(trilema) mike_c: a centralized altcoin. there's an innovation for you.
(trilema) mike_c: sed is probably written in haskell. much speed.
(trilema) mike_c: find/replace with 13,000 hits: sublime text ran for 15 minutes before i killed it. sed took < 1 second.
(trilema) mike_c: bitcoinaverage had a button to remove gox price from inception. can't wait for them to die, it will be better than SR dying.
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