billymg[asciilifeform]: $ticker btc usd
busybot: Current BTC price in USD: $36345.88
billymg[asciilifeform]: $ticker btc usd
busybot: Current BTC price in USD: $37322.58
billymg[asciilifeform]: btc really likes this line
asciilifeform: billymg: maybe i'm missing sumthing but it seems to be elementarily possible to always draw such a line, no matter what the price liquishit loox like at a given time
asciilifeform: i.e. the line conveys 0 info
billymg[asciilifeform]: asciilifeform: it's interesting to me because i drew the line back in june. here's the same line on a longer time scale
billymg[asciilifeform]: and you can see the dramatic dump in august occurred right at the same line too
billymg[asciilifeform]: and the more recent october pump went right up to that line again then stopped, and the current movement we're seeing even when zoomed in seems to be dancing around that line
billymg[asciilifeform]: and i could've drawn it earlier, back in march, after seen the bounce from the dump to 19.5k. the two points that define the line are from jan and march
billymg[asciilifeform]: after seeing*
billymg[asciilifeform]: best theory is it's some sort of collective psychology phenomenon. everyone's drawing the same lines so they program their trading bots to place bets at the same points
asciilifeform: there seem to be 3 lines in the last pic ?
asciilifeform: (5 if counting the bottom part)
signpost[asciilifeform]: problem is there's a bunch of meme lines you didn't draw, and how do I know to draw yours and not e.g. one at $25k, $18k, etc
asciilifeform: problem is that you can draw a 'pithy' line over just about anyffin
asciilifeform: in retrospect.
asciilifeform: nao try trading on it
asciilifeform: 'anyone can predict, so long as it's the past, rather than future, that he wants to predict' or how did it go
signpost[asciilifeform]: there is probably a smarter analysis to be had with e.g. volume data in hand.
asciilifeform: the folx who operate the heat engine aint particularly eager to do so in a way that randos can usefully predict.
bitbot[asciilifeform]: (asciilifeform) 2021-04-23 asciilifeform: a major moving part behind the price swings are the people who run this heat engine -- 1) spread fud re bitcoin 2) 'buy the dip' 3) drum up enthusiasm among morons 4) sell dear 5) goto 1, nao w/ moar coin, extracted from morons on both strokes of the engine piston
asciilifeform: even if the ease of painting 'line' over the engine compression diagram in retrospect very deceptively suggests the contrary.
asciilifeform: lizard objective is quite transparently to turn btc into au, i.e. where almost all of it is bottled up in handful of reich warehouses, and people can 'trade' all they like but exclusively with paper simulacrum which is worth what they say it's worth
asciilifeform: (and aint any kinda inflation shelter on any reasonable time scale)
billymg[asciilifeform] notes he never claimed the lines are useful for trading, or anything really
asciilifeform: billymg: if the lines represent actual pattern, they are useful for trading. and the converse.
asciilifeform: seems elementary
billymg[asciilifeform]: the only actual pattern i see is the decade+ chart, which is pretty much "up only"
billymg[asciilifeform]: even if a lot of that is "dollar down"
signpost[asciilifeform]: thing's been proportional to hash rate forever
signpost[asciilifeform] still watching that
billymg[asciilifeform]: asciilifeform: they might succeed in turning it into ticker:GLD but also possible they don't this time. a lot more people are wise to their games these days
signpost[asciilifeform]: inventory *can* be reported on programmatically which is much better than the gold situation.
billymg[asciilifeform]: yup, can look at outstanding shares of the different bitcoin ETFs (if their are multiple), compare to other known large hodl addresses (those of exchanges for example). "hey waitaminute, how come these total to 83MM btc??"
billymg[asciilifeform]: if there* are, geez
billymg[asciilifeform]: GLD was also the product of an era where people still trusted institutions. now, post covid, biden, ukraine, etc... who's left that does?
asciilifeform: billymg: the gox users, lol, evidently
asciilifeform has nfi who they are, but they appear to exist, and in such #s as to allow the 'farmers' herdin' said cattle to survive
asciilifeform: http://logs.bitdash.io/pest/2023-11-15#1031315 << the obv boojum is that the 'observable inventory' at no point has any clear connection to what's being traded.
bitbot[asciilifeform]: Logged on 2023-11-15 16:16:04 billymg: yup, can look at outstanding shares of the different bitcoin ETFs (if their are multiple), compare to other known large hodl addresses (those of exchanges for example). "hey waitaminute, how come these total to 83MM btc??"
asciilifeform: observe that planet3's inventory of au is similarly 'observable' (notionally all of it would fit in a 100m cube)