Show Idle (>14 d.) Chans
← 2024-10-19 | 2024-10-22 → ↓
mats: whoops, wrong channel
mats: since i'm here i guess i'll do it anyway
Vex: I don't want to like that BYD mats, but I do. Jumping around like it's recalibrating the pussy magnet.
Vex: the motion is reminiscent of BMC hyrolastic system of old
Vex: I wonder if adlai still reads the logs. I'm sure the war is wearing on his wetware. Take care brother
Vex: i'm pretty sure byd are subsidised here. I've seen a lot more since they changed to the 3 letter badge
Vex: undoubtedly Australia is also a "chicken rib market"
mats: its funny how few people live in australia
mats: barely more than taiwan
Vex: yeah it's kinda unique
mats: super old dick bove piece: '... QE2 as a bank-less “financial war with China”' https://archive.ph/2023.05.23-074043/https://www.ft.com/content/dcfbb1ea-e219-3273-8992-9e7ac75ae290
mats: really unfortunate how nato is so badly organised and managed
Vex_: mats, you read eifty million metric fucktons of macroeconomics weekly. ever thought of distilling it?
mats: for relatively well understood structural and historical reasons, and a general unwillingness of e.g. spaniards to die for hungarians
mats: they're stuck with this idiotic force and equipment redundancy and duplication of effort
mats: the combined nato european member states budget is a whole ass usnavy, or usarmy, or usaf
mats: but due to a lack of unified european military command they can barely scrape together enough tanks, truck mounted missiles, and uniforms for a grand parade now and again. or to beat libya around the ears for more than a few days solo without american support
mats: their gdp is more than 10x russia's
mats: their defense budget is more than 5x ru
mats: at their current level of readiness its hard to say that everyone meeting their 2% defense budget to gdp ratio is even sufficient, and there are folks proposing 3-4% now which is not politically tenable
mats: but they could likely get by with even 1.5% if they unfucked this org problem
mats: which will never happen
Vex_: shit man, I meant a paywalled blog. not do it right now
mats: i don't have any macro stuff to write about, it would just be links to financial papers
Vex_: you obviously distil it in you head.
mats: i guess there's a general theme involving the study of the intersection of national security and economic policy, us and cn relations, us and cn technological innovation, the rise of cn, and the risks of public debt to national economies
Vex_: I suspect you can also dissect a balance sheet.
mats: i think the rise of microstrategy is pretty weird
Vex_: They got a shitton of bc and sell softs
mats: not inscrutable, it feels similar to trump's djt social media garbage fire
Vex_: he's got a shitcoin now too I heard
mats: when you remove the digital assets impairment charge and look at revenues remaining flat, mstr is a fucking dud
Vex_: dud, or not correctly priced?
mats: i think its significantly overpriced
mats: it would be a different story if they could loan out a quarter of their btc to collect yield, but they don't do that now and the reason is probably related to regulators
mats: they're losing tens of millions of dollars every q
mats: it really is a money losing piece of shit like djt
mats: but shares still trade at a significant price owing to bitcoin (or trump loving) morons
mats: i don't understand how tsla is at 600bn either
mats: they don't have a single permit to test autonomous vehicles in usa
mats: and they probably still won't have one in 2026
Vex_: i was interested to see the drop in price after the robotaxi show
mats: who the fuck thinks a two seater taxi is going to earn money
mats: what the actual fuck
Vex_: he had a 10 seater too
mats: if they continue to use the gigacasting shit then the tail risk of operating it is too high
Vex_: what is gigacasting?
mats: one low speed accident at 8kmh and you're looking at a 12k usd bill
mats: the giant al die casting machine used for the unibody
Vex_: oh , right
mats: i guess it could work if they start selling cars at half the price they are now
Vex_: but if you let computer drive, they dont crash
mats: 'iphone' levels of middle class 'luxury'
Vex_: yeah. why byd is successful here. come in under luxury car tax. slever
mats: tesla isn't remotely close to L5 self driving
mats: and even if they don't crash, there's the issue of other vehicles and objects striking them
Vex_: totally. I've never had a ride at all in one of these new cars
mats: i haven't seriously dug into it but i suspect the entire financial case for making gigacasting work rests on autonomous driving assistance working out
Vex_: amg63 with collision avoidance. yes. pilot was stomping the v8 and letting it work. so inappropriate. idk if he even too her heels off
mats: because tesla cars aren't repairable in many situations, or even geographic locations
mats: i haven't found good actuarial data about it, maybe its siloed or i don't know where to look
Vex_: so true, what happens when they all turn into ratters
Vex_: there hasn't been enough time
Vex_: iphone car
mats: teslas may just be uninsurable in many place like uk, or you get stuck with a single insurer without competitive bids
Vex_: i'd also be slightly worried if my garage was connected to my house
mats: thats not really an issue with new battery chemistries
mats: i'd be nervous if i lived in a mid or high rise with a car park in it though
Vex_: someone elses car?
mats: its a combination of things
Vex_: new law her eon batteries for scooters etc. too many houses burned from samsung style runaway
mats: its not really the battery fire but the secondary ignitions it is going to kick off, and with all of the garbage combusting simultaneously there'll be zero visibility and nobody is going to be able to get in there to contain it
mats: batteries are very safe but colocation with massive plastic ice suv and massive fuel tank is a problem
Vex_: separate garage. solved
mats: i would bet money some violence entrepreneur is going to do a skyscraper with a garage and full human occupancy on a weekday in the next 10y
mats: i hear that modern auto software is extremely homogenous and monolithic these days
Vex_: if you build enough, the death will cheapen
mats: can't imagine the technical difficulty of dprk simultaneously kicking off five fires in five trucks in the same garage is very high
Vex_: cant wait for aciilifeform's smellovision. wake a cunt up so he can get his proper hotrod out before total destruction
Vex_: roccos modern life
mats: there's no way to make 500 people dying in a fire cheap
Vex_: 500 aint shit
Vex_: we'll price it like pure dirt. everything has a price
Vex_: I have an issue pricing 1 life like that, but it happens
mats: see that old mp thing about the north hollywood shootout and insurance payouts, survivors benefits on bodies of victims and cops
mats: 500 bodies amounts to the cost of a hurricane for insurers
mats: insurers are already getting fucked big time in an era of continuously increasing water in a warming atmosphere
mats: muggles like to talk about berkshire's monotonically increasing, all time high records setting cash pile, but there's no analysis of how their liabilities are ballooning too
mats: its a good business, but still
mats: they're getting beat over insurance
Vex_: i don't fully understand
Vex_: insurance is weird
mats: it also owns a lot of utilities
Vex_: now that's one that's one that I'd love to read you dissect
Vex_: I'm persona no grata with lloyds
Vex_: one of the girls called me up when I was super drunk.
Vex_: I changed the vive
Vex_: I dont hink they call after dark anymore
Vex_: maybe it's been long enough. no
Vex_: we need to survey ur boat sir. fuck u do. it's over
Vex_: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KC8kKFIzEjY
Vex_: ha ha bird near my housae responds
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