signpost[asciilifeform]: btw my chicken bones say the dip is over unless transaction fees decline. putting it on record so I can laugh at myself later.
signpost[asciilifeform]: I've got that ass-backwards. fees buy hashes.
asciilifeform fwiw by default suspects umpteenth dip is simply waterfall action
asciilifeform: ( amplified, as always, by liquidations of leveraged positions )
signpost[asciilifeform]: orange line is just (btc_hashrate / (blockSubsidy + block_fee) / btc_supply) / math.pow(10, 6)
signpost[asciilifeform]: but yes, hoarders can always dump. fwiw miners hold about 10x usg if you believe glassnode.
signpost[asciilifeform] operating from the hypothesis that the market always re-establishes supply v demand dynamics attached to $ per hash in the long run.
asciilifeform: the weak link there, suspect, is 'long run'. ('market can ???? far longer than you can remain solvent'(tm)(r)(c))
asciilifeform: orthogonally, 'market' presently consists of over9000 casino gamblers who are occupied mainly with guessing where usg is gonna park a freshly-printed $maxint this quarter, and making leveraged bets on same
asciilifeform: (rather than what most sane folx typically think of as 'market')
signpost[asciilifeform]: that's the experiment, eh? can the btc ratchet escape usd?
asciilifeform: so far apparently nope
asciilifeform: (pertinently, btc not actually recovered 2020 exchrate, if one adjusts for realinflation(tm), needs arguably 100+k $ for this)
asciilifeform: err, '22
signpost[asciilifeform]: that'd put recent price moves in line with the 16-20 halving.
signpost[asciilifeform]: run-up would happen sometime in the next 1yr
signpost[asciilifeform]: USG's best weapon would be causing chain congestion and running up fees.
asciilifeform: hodlonauts not give slightest shit re congestion tho
asciilifeform: (nor do speculators, who work ~100% with papercoin)
asciilifeform: not even sure tbh who, precisely, does
signpost[asciilifeform]: each block a miner has to pay for a certain amount of power to produce that block.
signpost[asciilifeform]: more fees in that block means each fee-satoshi is responsible for fewer hashes.
signpost[asciilifeform]: kind of a weird dynamic. congestion means the purchasing power of the units goes down.
asciilifeform: orthogonally, turns mining further into contest of who can find cheap/stolen mains current
signpost[asciilifeform]: could call that price discovery of power.
asciilifeform: ( the inescapable endgame fwiw )
asciilifeform must bbl