asciilifeform: $ticker btc usd
busybot: Current BTC price in USD: $40704.16
signpost[asciilifeform]: seems like grayscale's turd is going to bleed out for a while
billymg[asciilifeform]: yeah, that's what it's looking like
asciilifeform: which turd? anyone want to summarize?
billymg[asciilifeform]: asciilifeform: this one
bitbot[asciilifeform]: Logged on 2022-08-30 13:34:55 billymg: in some cases, can't withdraw!
billymg[asciilifeform]: afaik largest "institutional" hodler
asciilifeform: billymg: the linked pg does not seem to contain any revelation that coin is being dumped
asciilifeform: is this known via some other source ?
billymg[asciilifeform]: asciilifeform: zoom out to "all", been steadily selling since '21 peak
asciilifeform: a ty
billymg[asciilifeform]: possibly now that converted to etf dumping more rapidly, but i dunno. like you said, not reflected yet in that linked chart
asciilifeform: re etf, asciilifeform laffs at the folx who laboured under the notion that a coupla gigatonne of papercoin being printed would pump, rather than sink, exchrate
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: Why?
asciilifeform: the dough that's buying papercoin aint chasing actual btc, neh
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: How do you know it's papercoin?
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: Also, why did gold price increase after the gold etf?
asciilifeform: awt_akris: iirc there is considerably moar papergold, on planet3, than actual gold. so stands to reason that au exchrate would have increased considerably moar if it weren't for the paper
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: Should have gone down, if indeed etfs have no relationship to the underlying asset.
asciilifeform: re 'how know it's papercoin' -- presumption of guilt
asciilifeform: no reason why should have 'down' in the absolute. is quite enuff for the perps to keep it at e.g. 4x when ought be, say, 10x vs. e.g. 30y ago
asciilifeform: very similarly re btc -- the lizards aint trying to 'drive it to 0', but rather to prevent it from working as a reliable general-purpose inflation shelter
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: How would gold price have increased more? More people buying bars and putting in safes?
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: Seems unlikely that would have happened.
asciilifeform: not necessary hypothesis. simply usd sinking. same way e.g. usa real estate 'went to moon'
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: I don't know if gold increased more or less in line with housing costs.
asciilifeform: (but, naturally, if it were the case that whenever buying power of usd sinks, au -- or btc -- proportionately rises, errybody would in fact load up. which is precisely what 'paperization' aims to prevent.)
asciilifeform: if there were an 'undebaseable' asset, erryone with any savings would run to it.
asciilifeform: exactly the same way that folx in ex-sov world ran to usd in 1990s (or e.g. argentines -- currently)
asciilifeform: paperization gives 'you can run, but can't hide' effectively. you can load up on 40k btc nao but no guarantee that it won't be 20k 2-3y from nao, etc
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: Is there any way to demonstrate to your satisfaction that etfs hold btc?
asciilifeform: atm, afaik the only 'undebaseable' (i.e. monotonic 'moon') assets in the reich are e.g. pre-ww2 (non-cardboard) real estate, rembrandts, and the like. this is by design (what'd be the point of inflating usd if it dinged ~errybody~ equally)
asciilifeform: awt_akris: if when one bought/sold etf, actual coin could be seen moving on the chain, say
asciilifeform: even then, however, you'd have nfi whether is 'allocated to you and only to you', conceivably same tx could be shown to >1 user
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: How about given the way the current etfs work?
asciilifeform: so afaik the answr is lolno
asciilifeform: awt_akris: afaik they work similarly to the au etf, neh ? i.e. not convertible on demand to the genuine article in any way
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: Correct. But these are public companies that must make quarterly filings.
asciilifeform: iirc so is e.g. coinbase. but do you actually think that it has actual btc at 100% reserve ?
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: Presumably they gotta report in a verifiable way purchases and sales.
asciilifeform not aware of any official requirement in any jurisdiction that goxes demonstrate 100% reserve
asciilifeform: they're required to report movements of usd, but this is orthogonal
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: If they lie on filings, they are subject to lawsuits
asciilifeform: the lie never gets revealed until there's a mtgox-style 'bank run' tho
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: So one could sue them and get this info in discovery
asciilifeform not heard of anyone successfully suing a not yet already-busted gox/ftx/etc to prove solvency
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: You'd have to have a massive number of employees, officials, and judges in on the conspiracy
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: across multiple companies, agencies, and juristdictions
asciilifeform: how many people were needed at mtgox, while the latter was successfully running fractional reserve ?
asciilifeform: or at ftx
asciilifeform: and iirc no bribed judges were needed
asciilifeform: if there hadn't been a run, would still be going, buying billboards, etc
awt_akris[asciilifeform]: Mt. Gox was not based in the US, not a public company.
asciilifeform: tru
signpost[asciilifeform]: https://archive.is/uOhKJ << volume spike in gbtc. their fee is iirc 2%, so some of that will go to other ETFs, others may be leaving the market entirely.
signpost[asciilifeform]: re: holding of underlying my butt says the gigabanks were given legal cover for breaking the law in regard to gold.
signpost[asciilifeform]: I am skeptical that the same is going on with coinbase right now. they, kraken, and a few others have consistently published merkle proofs of reserves.
signpost[asciilifeform]: in either case, one should hold btc with the us dollar's collapse in mind, not an eye towards increasing usd wealth
asciilifeform: signpost: the various manipulations are specifically to prevent usd collapse (i.e. the appearance of a sumthing that one could reliably flee into from usd printola, the way '90s ru folx fled from ruble to deutschmark, swiss frank, usd)
signpost[asciilifeform]: certainly are, but I think we're as corrupt and leaky as same in say 89 or 90
signpost[asciilifeform]: that the reptiles like vanguard are preventing plebs from buying while they themselves buy into miners says much.
signpost[asciilifeform]: "for thee and not for me"
asciilifeform: scheme is that plebe is forced to choose b/w a) saving in usd, which sinks steadily (and in occasional bursts, '71, '19, etc) and b) gambling in paper casino, where might e.g. +20% over year or -20% or whatever %, with only guarantee being that 'house wins'
asciilifeform: (1 key attribute of plebe errywhere is also that he is easily persuaded that he's 'winning', because has ~0 awareness of opportunity cost. e.g. in ru there are banks paying 15-25% interest on deposits...)
asciilifeform: re: miners, imho they're indisputably the weakest link in the whole edifice. erry single day, mining gets moar effectively centralized, less within reach of humans, than prev. day
asciilifeform curious re when was it last the case that a human could actually mine at even remotely near +ev
asciilifeform: i.e. buy the box, and actually recover its purchase cost + that of the mains current before rising difficulty makes it a guaranteed never