mircea_popescu: "on this set of 100 consecutive bets, the results for X behaviour are .1 and for Y behaviour are .04"
jurov: Neil that exact case would require manual intervention "o difficulty prediction is > 16% ? drop the weight sharply"
mircea_popescu: no lol. i'm claiming that on the basis of picking some outliers you can't make general statements.
Neil: mircea_popescu: Are you claiming some fudge for the first 4 days would fix it? You're smarter than that.
Neil: Adn the 8BTC bet at the last minute of the "16% bet" just in the last 24 hrs supports my other claim of "betting at the last minute, under linear decay, pays".
chetty: would you use the same address to bet both sides?
Neil: OK, evidence to the contrary?
mircea_popescu: much akin to saying "i've never seen anyone in a green tshirt depositing more money in the bank than they were taking out"
mircea_popescu: this seems completely irrelevant to the discussion
Neil: I haven't seen a single example of anyone (same output address) betting on bitbet making money. There are numerous examples to the contrary.
mircea_popescu: inasmuch as we're asking the same thing lol, youcan do both at a time
Neil: mircea_popescu: MisterE no actually, betting both sides is the way to play. << I think, judging from the public histories on bitbet, that this is very poor advice. It seems that waiting pays; I think bitbet probably needs harsher time decay than linear.
jurov: and volume goes up then
jurov: and then he prolly gave up
MisterE: Hmm wonder if Barbarians at the gate is any good
VanCleef: so Putin opened a new account at Rossiya and his monthly salary to be transferred there instead. lolz obama pwnd
ozbot: Dark Arts | The Verge
MisterE: Tales From The Crypt++
ozbot: Alleged Silk Road Founder's Mother Speaks Out - YouTube
gribble: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=TANJ | TANJ. Expletive. Acronym for "There Ain't No Justice." Used like "damn" Also: tangit, tanjing, and other variations. Accredited to Larry Niven. TANJ! I left the oven ...
ThickAsThieves: yet no one is buying the real fuckbook for $1bn
nubbins`: i can only assume people click on them, but i'm not sure why
nubbins`: the real fuckbook is back
nubbins`: our women are tired of boys, they want men
ThickAsThieves: i like when jiggly butt girl is there to greet me at kat.ph
ThickAsThieves: they are fucked up people man
nubbins`: ever see funny games? the 1997 one?
ThickAsThieves: the cover is a ski lift at night
MisterE: looks like there could be suckage
nubbins`: so silvergoldbull (canadian bullion dealer) now accepts btc, but i can't figure out where they're getting their rates from
ThickAsThieves: i already like it from the promo picture
nubbins`: that was the one that was all white?
ThickAsThieves: they had HyperCube
nubbins`: watching the bletchley circle now
ThickAsThieves: like The Fades
ThickAsThieves: there are some great british limite dseries
nubbins`: cube -5: in the beginning
ThickAsThieves: they can make 10 of em
nubbins`: the first cube movie was good (though poorly acted). rest of em were pretty meh
ThickAsThieves: cazalla thats the one
ozbot: The Signal (2014) - IMDb
ThickAsThieves: i happen to like the Cube movies
ThickAsThieves: The Corridor
ThickAsThieves: oh, The Signal
ThickAsThieves: Frozen (not the animated one)
nubbins`: but without the statutory rape
nubbins`: that's the audio virus whatsit?
the20year: where is the new cosmos
benkay: robo combat's a bit of a trope at this point, the20year
the20year: what movie was that the basis of?
mircea_popescu: they should prolly make a russian and us eve team
chetty: this may be the war where everyone stayed home
mircea_popescu: and the russians probably don't want to get aywya
MisterE: what will Romania do if fighting breaks out in the Ukraine with Crimea?
the20year: i thought they began mobilization last week
mircea_popescu: roughly the equivalent of mpoe-pr going tyre kicking around berkshire with stuff like "o this is a good investment you bigmouth ?!?! what sort of odds do you give bitcoi nbeats you ? 100:1 ? "
mircea_popescu: these people.
the20year: The property we just bought for $70k has a rebuild value of something like $275k
the20year: Well , it's half a mill per occupant, then premises of no less than 80%. best thing on earth would be for a house to be burnt to the ground without anyone hurt :D it's amazing to me how much they insure our properties for
the20year: We on the otherhand carry half a million dollars on each property, and then are applying for a $2m-$3m blanket for the company itself
the20year: I'm gonna bet they didn't carry insurance
the20year: I have to take a look at it, we might be able to get it for $20k or so. they bought it in 2006 and managed it quite poorly. tenant burnt down a garage and they gave it up
mike_c: i'll take the duplex for 27.
the20year: One of the candidates we barely miss was just re-listed. They bought it for $52k, I imagine put $10k or less in it and have it on the market for $119k
the20year: Yes, very helpful , we've got a few great announcements coming up. Still have 100ish BTC left in reserves for another property
the20year: Yeah, definately. really would like to do a flip here soon but i don't have a any good candidates for that right now. Got a few duplexes I'm looking at, one is $27k the other is $39.9k
the20year: mike_c: i'm not sure where hte last update was here. We have 6 total properties either purchased or in contract. closed on #4 today, supposed to close on #5 any day now. #6 closes the 7th of next month
mike_c: so there! :)
Apocalyptic: mike_c, also the fact that svn handles branches awfully
moiety: its specifically for giving remote ssh access to one domain only rather than the whole hosting account. i can use git for that?
Apocalyptic: you should rather use git
mike_c: the20year: how's business? any new houses?
gribble: You'll have to answer these outrageous interview ... - GeekWire: <http://www.geekwire.com/2014/top-interview-questions-2014/>; Husband: Pregnant, brain-dead wife wouldn't want to be on life ...: <http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/15/justice/pregnant-life-support-texas/>; Why does modern medicine throw out our brains? - Outrageous ...: <http://www.outrageousfortune.net/2012/03/does- (1 more message)
mircea_popescu: ;;google are you the simply outrageous brain specialist
mircea_popescu: then why do you think i have this outrageous accent
benkay: you don't even have to wrap your head around the monster that was mpoe.
benkay: give it a year, the mindfucks slow down eventually but don't stop.
TestingUnoDosTre: radan, have you not pondered much on the real world before?
radan: the potential of all this is only just now dawning on me
TestingUnoDosTre: corrupt us politicians should start accepting bitcoin, or maybe they already do
radan: or maybe they already do
radan: or the kind of people who do that kind of stuff don't know about bitcoin
TestingUnoDosTre: because the phrase BTC was injected, duh
radan: besides the low daily convertible volume
MisterE: so you have to shore up your bets as it comes close to closing time for them
TestingUnoDosTre: radan, the statement below the calculator is quite important to read "after fees, at current weight and assuming no one else bets"
moiety: i can serve cosmopolitans and offer to burn bras at the door if required
radan: if some newbie reads the log and thinks he can print money based on what I said 10 mins ago, I'd like to help him out by telling him it's impossible
moiety: it is a big channel, it was perhaps just all the eyes
radan: actually, that's not possible on any of the bets up right now
radan: let's say the payout for yes on a given bet is 1.5
moiety: python can just go slither away until i have a dev chained to a raditor somewhere
moiety: not hard, just tedious benkay . i think i have the fucking javascript up part totally down
benkay: pretty sure that's the first thing i learned when i started working with javascript as a matter of fact.
MisterE: even with the outcome explaination
MisterE: I do remember briefly reading the site and what exactly a yes or no could mean was very difficult to determine sometimes
MisterE: I'm afraid to look into it another time sink!
mircea_popescu: you can shave plenty just by watching the bets.
MisterE: thats understandable then
mircea_popescu: there's weight and implicit odds
MisterE: oh there's odds?
mircea_popescu: MisterE you don't understand the weight
MisterE: you have a fee so you're always out then
ThickAsThieves: i bet both sides of the berkshire bet
mircea_popescu: MisterE no actually, betting both sides is the way to play.
MisterE: betting both sides, the house loves you :)
mircea_popescu: duduqa i had no idea colombia actually can ban things. didn't they fail with cocaine ?
mircea_popescu: a good policy is perhaps to never bet the day you discover a bet
ThickAsThieves: i'm quite happy the Yes bets are so little
moiety: i'm only ever in my bank when i need to shout at them for fucking something up
MisterE: they mostly rely on computer algorithms and usually give the go ahead from some corporate HQ
radan: and use it like a club to beat on anyone who's not following their "recommendations"
gribble: The operation succeeded.
asciilifeform: can't speak for others in the land of the sad, but i haven't been inside a bank in ages.
gribble: Error: The "Later" plugin is loaded, but there is no command named "peterl" in it. Try "list Later" to see the commands in the "Later" plugin.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves that may be because they're broke.
ozbot: More Than 30% Of Americans Haven't Visited A Bank In The Last Six Months
ThickAsThieves: http://www.buzzfeed.com/matthewzeitlin/more-than-30-of-americans-havent-visited-a-bank-in-last-six
radan: consider that the purpose of a business (from a societal, not individual viewpoint) is to keep as many people as busy as possible
mircea_popescu: cut 99.5% of the workforce woreking in a bank, increase salaries for the remainder 10 to 100x
BingoBoingo: Joe Brown is one of those cases of if you stare too deep into the ghetto, you eventually become ghetto
mircea_popescu: currently there's one valuable person per bank office : the credits officer. he's the guy that makes the call if lending is a good idea.
TestingUnoDosTre: I would rather my county have a pompous tv personality judge than a real hard ass judge
TestingUnoDosTre: apparently, he was an actual criminal judge for a county back in the day
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: He was one of those daytime shows that keep those with nothing to do during the day sated in between ration tickets.
TestingUnoDosTre: If anyone finds a version of that bitcoin swaps article that contains comments about the winklevoss brothers, please send it to me. I read it earlier today and broke out laughing, but I can't find it now :(
MisterE: and Iceland is on the same track so in retrospect I'm glad I stayed put
radan: but consider that the reason for this is that everyone shares significant ethnic and cultural bonds you are not privy to
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: Well, of all of the things to have drawn contempt from, asses might not be that bad
MisterE: this is the news I'm talking about ThickAsThieves http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-24/bitcoin-swaps-near-reality-as-tera-group-forms-legal-framework.html
ThickAsThieves: is there a year-long auroracoin bet yet?
MisterE: pretty much everyone I know gets hacked for the first time using WordPress
gribble: The operation succeeded.
ThickAsThieves: "The second way for an Icelandic citizen to receive their auroracoins will be through SMS. The person’s cell phone number will then be matched with their National ID number and once verified the user will receive their auroracoins."
mircea_popescu: concerned parties are advised to send some dust first, that'll verify the address and lock it down
ThickAsThieves: it makes a difference if the site can be compromised and depsot addressed get mitm'd
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla: i was actually contemplating just copy pasting the output of current wp in a html file << notrly such a bad idea.
gribble: The operation succeeded.
ThickAsThieves: "The first way is as follows, since 80% of the Icelandic population is on Facebook, Icelandic citizens will be able to claim their coins simply by logging into Facebook through a gateway."
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform i'd really love to see the chinese files on nato
radan: unless you live in nevada you can probably use it, I gather
TestingUnoDosTre: asciilifeform that is some top secret shit right there 1!!
ThickAsThieves: i assumed it was all the same news
ozbot: Online casino - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
ThickAsThieves: there were a few today i didnt read em all
mircea_popescu: was the wsj story about diff futures ?
ThickAsThieves: but one of the futures i know
mircea_popescu: but from what i've seen these people were trying to sell icbit-style "futures" on the usd
mircea_popescu: diff futures are a pain in the butt
ThickAsThieves: referring to diff futures etc not being the same as USD btc options
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves what difference do yo uhave in mind there ?
mircea_popescu: the various stocks either don't have enough volume or, for the non-mpex crowd, arten't actually stocks, don't even publish statements etc
ThickAsThieves: undeliverable isnt the same as non-deliverable
MisterE: I dont think I'm understanding everything I'm reading there
ninjashogun: I found the link in my logs. It's http://www.fyrstikken.tv/3993A732-057F-426B-A046-7B44B7ED03D6/Fyrstikken.TV.html
MisterE: yea they are but a robust derivatives market is more than options
ninjashogun: forget the link - it has fyrstikken in it
MisterE: MP: I see that monthly statement, bummer month, but anyways what am I missing about a derivatives connection? the bonds market?
ninjashogun: fyrstikken was the person
mircea_popescu: "the world's first" of course.
kakobrekla: they are not all scam, just most.
moiety: you just listed reasons why you haven't found investment yourself there ninjashogun
ninjashogun: given that there's no due dilligence that can be done. no contracts that can be enforced. no sec. no proof you're not getting scammed. and every listing on crypto stocks is a scam. and the OPERATOR is a scammer. ......... how is anyone investing?
CheckDavid: Exchange currencies without risk of scam at the trade level
TestingUnoDosTre: you could sell them in neat little batches with different risk profiles... it would be a paradise
CheckDavid: You mean doesn't do much yet. Or it won't do much of anything in the near future?
mircea_popescu: to go with their infinite hitpoints
mircea_popescu: TestingUnoDosTre yeah, because the counterparties would be solvent, in that paralel universe where idiots have infinite bitcoins
ninjashogun: given that there's no due dilligence that can be done. no contracts that can be enforced. no sec. no proof you're not getting scammed. and every listing on crypto stocks is a scam. and the OPERATOR is a scammer. ......... how is anyone investing? How is the market 'clearing' (bid meets ask)
MisterE: please retype the internet into IRC for me :p
radan: there's a faq
gribble: The operation succeeded.
mircea_popescu: bets aren't really investments, they're gambling
radan: if I win, then I get 2.8 bitcoin
moiety: i sent someone to bitbet today. i linked them and they still searched google and tried .com. conclusion: some people can't be helped.
MisterE: I hope this is the stability we've been looking for
radan: maybe they know something we don't
mircea_popescu: sorta round the clock.
TestingUnoDosTre: do the mods at bitbet work certain hours of the day, or are they more like round clock rotation type
radan: besides that they probably have tons of cash to play around with in usd
gribble: Error: You don't have the network.whois capability. If you think that you should have this capability, be sure that you are identified before trying again. The 'whoami' command can tell you if you're identified.
blackwhite: Apocalyptic i get how it works and nothing prevents them from removing a lot of small amount other than that kind of consitution the same as a large amount. If they have to do it over a month then I would most probably know.
TestingUnoDosTre: no, the future was 2012
radan: the future is now
ninjashogun: like the way ice cream can cost $0.75 for example, it could cost a certain amount of BTC 0.001 or whatever
blackwhite: yeah sure. But I am pretty sure one of the problems is that they are not looking and monitoring all the time
kakobrekla: <blackwhite> someone would make a killing setting up a 24/7 security company watching over those online wallets < - is this opening asciis parachute after you have hit the ground?
TestingUnoDosTre: never knew that about tillie the teller, thanks moiety
moiety: ninjashogun: why yes, only yesterday i learned the voice of siri was the voice for the very first atm (tillie the teller i believe) << such history
moiety: what the absolute fuck
ninjashogun: Unfortunately we had large fund withdrawals in the last weeks which have lead to a complete depletion of our cold wallet balance and we are now facing the option of either closing the site with significant unrecoverable losses for all or to work out a solution that allows the exchange to continue to operate and gradually pay back the losses. "
ninjashogun: "We had enough coin balances in our cold wallet to upkeep our platform and the positive cashflow enabled us to gradually refill the wallets.
ninjashogun: It's interesting though that the exchanges are behaving as the early unregulated banks did. Complete with bank runs :) (According to the quoted Vircurex text - "https://vircurex.com/welcome/ann_reserved.html")
Mats_cd03: reconsidering whether or not im being trolled tbqh
benkay: Mats_cd03: tack another three order of magnitude on for thuggery.
Mats_cd03: paypal and usg having a number of such incentives that enable them to operate like thugs
benkay: it's a rotten ship and they're all rats.
Mats_cd03: besides which, there is no incentive for new customers in lieu of a new risk profile
Mats_cd03: nobody cares about the continued operation per se; its the continued damage to the reputation of legitimate operators within the ecosystem
benkay: cryptostocks continued operation is a gross violation of thermodynamics.
benkay: difference there being 0.01% get fucked vs. 100% get fucked in this situation.
ninjashogun: Mats_cd03, we know for a fact that with real currencies the answer is "yes". We know because people used paypal when paypal froze merchant's accounts and ruined their businesses. We know because people use US Banks when US Banks freeze people's accounts while they're under investigatoin. etc.
ninjashogun: Mats_cd03, would anyone ever put their bitcoins onto a site that is currently freezing somebody else's bitcoins - and they know this?
ninjashogun: Mats_cd03, well what is the PRIMARY issue with putting your bitcoin in a site that is currently freezing someone else's bitcoins? Look at that and you will see, some people may still put some of their bitocins in.
gribble: yes I am gribble. why do you keep bothering me?
moiety: we did make bitcoinmagazine in other news