los_pantalones: quicker than say something like "will there be a gay player in baseball by august 10th"
los_pantalones: but the basic premise is that price bets are not a binary event, they lose probability over time
mircea_popescu: one of the best cartoon characters of all time. always naked from the waist down, always funny pants reference names, a whole pants thing
gribble: Red Guy - Cow and Chicken Wiki: <http://cowandchicken.wikia.com/wiki/Red_Guy>; Cow and Chicken - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cow_and_Chicken>; Red Guy Compilation (Reupload/Speedy) - YouTube: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1bUeJ5P8L0>
mircea_popescu: ;;google cow and chicken "the red guy"
gribble: Error: User doesn't exist in the Rating or GPG databases. User must be GPG-registered to receive ratings.
dexX7: or maybe it's only because i'm too used to the original
los_pantalones: i am the twitter guy
dexX7: i don't like the .lk design
mircea_popescu: dexX7 you may be the last one using .org, people kinda moved to .lk
dexX7: "The same bug also affected the forum. Changing your forum password is recommended." on btctalk.. is this msg new?
mircea_popescu: To get voice (ie, to be able to speak), first identify with gribble and then send "!up" to assbot in a private message. If you do not have a WoT account, try politely asking one of the voiced people for a temporary pass.
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla good move on the assbot pm
Namworld: Bounce, if someone took it from the hacker and spammed the users telling them "We already have your docs, come trade on a good BTC market! *LINK*"
fluffypony: but the opportunity to keep using the tools even with only 25% of their capital that was in gox
fluffypony: a lot of heavy traders aren't going to want to reinvest fresh capital and then still have to pay for compatability with whatever platform they use
Namworld: That's the only thing I can imagine someone going after, the doxed userbase without having to pay balances
bounce: depends a bit on what you could do with that. though apparently you could've grabbed that yourself, seeing the guys that first promised not to sell the loot, then offered to sell it anyway.
Namworld: If they don't have to pay back balances lost, just what's left, and get to have all the userbase with docs...
Namworld: Depends on the sort of capital they have. Gox's name isn't what's doomed. It's the code created by Karpeles and Karpeles himself.
bounce: could be a TLAgency front. then again, why go through all the trouble? might as well set up one anew.
fluffypony: bounce: who knows what goes through their heads
bounce: then call it a day. then what? a rotten website and trading "engine", an unwilling user base (I mean... well, they didn't walk away before, did they?), and, trouble with nosy 'merkin regulators. what'd be in it for them?
fluffypony: I don't think they'd be stupid enough to cover the rest, unless they never want to ever achieve any level of profitability
fluffypony: of what they had
fluffypony: and then distribute that proportionally
Namworld: So, basically, they are insane?
fluffypony: all the money Karpeles stole, presumably?
Namworld: And own silkroad.com, which is HR related, which must be their first business, hence the name: http://www.silkroad.com/
Namworld: Doesn't look like an appropriate candidate anyway. There's no amount of duct tape that can fix MtGox.
Namworld: The name seems to be a bad coincidence. An awful one even.
Namworld: They have Bitcoin related website, some real estates and restaurant and random stuff. Eh...
benkay: i'm off to harass the womenfolk and ingest intoxicants
benkay: well, index me into the googleborg gents
artifexd: That article is the top result for "goddamn stupidest thing bitcoin"
artifexd: and a gun to scare you off your phone is the height of idiocy.
artifexd: urthermore, putting bitcoins on your phone is probably the goddamn stupidest thing that I've ever heard of. Bitcoins are going to be the world's reserve currency4, and as such fated to rise to prices per coin that dwarf even the outlandish Winklevoss' most media-hungry "predictions". To leave such a precious commodity within reach of anyone with a USB cable5
benkay: it's probably a bad thing that i'm the search engine for my blog
ozbot: Bitcoiners Upset at Apple Understand Neither Apple's Business Model nor Bitcoin
benkay: http://cascadianhacker.com/blog/2014/02/09_bitcoiners-upset-at-apple-understand-neither-apples-business-model-nor-bitcoin.html
artifexd: benkay: I'm trying to find an article that I think you wrote. In the article the statement "Storing bitcoins on a phone is the god damned stupidest fucking thing evar." Or something to that effect. Do you remember that?
fluffypony: please tell me someone set up a pool to let the miners mine and never find a block
TestingUnoDosTre: "All other pretenders to the altcoin designation must be assimilated. Resistance is futile."
TestingUnoDosTre: oh my gawd, I'm laughing my ass off while reading this forum. How the hell did he pull this off?
ozbot: There is no recourse in Bitcoin - only trust and identity
benkay: http://cascadianhacker.com/blog/2014/04/13_there-is-no-recourse-in-bitcoin-only-trust-and-identity.html
TestingUnoDosTre: I'm wondering because shortly after he left, the books are going wild with buys
gribble: The operation succeeded.
artifexd: Do you remember the first time somebody gave you real responsibility? "Don't let me down, kid." type stuff.
benkay: lowest of the low, artifexd
artifexd: Anyway, time to put the existential crisis on hold and get some work done before bed.
artifexd: Because, seriously, who the fuck am I?
benkay: and yeah, they're probably just like you in the particulars of their lives and mistresses and dinners and base houses etc
artifexd: And yet, every time I talk, he gives me the time of day. When I question him, he responds reasonably. I guess that encourages me to treat him as an equal.
artifexd: Here, mircea and I should not exist in the same caste. I'm just a normal dude. He's a Romanian Billionare. WITH A B! I can conceive of no reason that someone that high up the food chain would give two shits about what I think or why I think it.
artifexd: When I was in the Navy, lower ranked officers were nothing special, but even lower enlisted (like myself) didn't have conversations with the Captains and Admirals. There was the understanding that they were "people" just like us (meaning the enlisted folk), but their concerns and our concerns didn't overlap enough to allow for everyday conversation. There
benkay: JorgePasada: i can't rate you unless you get in the WoT.
gribble: WARNING: Currently not authenticated. Trust relationship from user benkay to user JorgePasada: Level 1: 0, Level 2: 0 via 0 connections. Graph: http://b-otc.com/stg?source=benkay&dest=JorgePasada | WoT data: http://b-otc.com/vrd?nick=JorgePasada | Rated since: never
artifexd: I think my (possible?) mistake is in thinking that he has access to the same information as the rest of us (specifically, me). He may have more people to pour over it and analyze it, but the raw information is available.
asciilifeform: but if the fellow warned you in time once, twice...
asciilifeform: you may or may not know the gory details of how a seismologist does his work
benkay: asciilifeform: points about verification aside, that'd be the point i'm trying to pound into artifexd
benkay: so an entity with an intelligence arm claims a thing is true and says 'get stuffed' when you ask 'but how ams u knooooow?'. how as a prole in -assets are you going to ever verify something the entity spent an unknown amount of money discovering?
benkay: but if it's my spy, and you want to know how good the report is
asciilifeform: plenty has been written on the subject, since at least machiavelli
asciilifeform: benkay: the science of how to verify intelligence is not a secret.
benkay: a not entirely thing to say about mircea_popescu's sources is that there's a nonzero chance they're trained ninjas who've infiltrated both the us and sino mining operations
benkay: artifexd: another point on this topic is that intelligence is completely unverifiable. your source may be compromised, your source may be lying, all sorts of things may be true.
asciilifeform: see mp's essay re: how dog sees every other creature as a type of dog
benkay: http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=14-04-2014&bots=true#623392 << give it five years, plot a line on the log scale and see how beautifully it fits
asciilifeform: yes, the fellow who builds the mythical magic reactor surely needs $15k of 'invest' and a spell in trendoid bootcamp.
artifexd: Without inside knowledge, how could you verify it? The only information that actually links to the miner is the coinbase script and I haven't seen any scripts with "Mined by US GSA" in them.
benkay: graham tire of the derp circus?
benkay: http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=14-04-2014&bots=true#623312 << then there's cavirtex which is django, a scam, and has shipped precisely zero since their original thinger.
artifexd: If it is an educated guess, that's cool. What I'm asking is whether you have any independently verifiable proof that governments are mining? (Like, verifiable by someone like, you know, me)
mircea_popescu: anyway. the bed's just filed extradition papers so ima have to bid you a very good laters!
ozbot: Things that matter these days ; things that don’t matter these days. pe Trilema - Un blog de Mirce
mircea_popescu: http://trilema.com/2013/things-that-matter-these-days-things-that-dont-matter-these-days/
mircea_popescu: But in either case, the race is on : the governments are mining, boys and girls. (The good news, of course, is that theyve started about at the same time, which means we have cleared the ONLY roadblock Bitcoin ever seriously had in its path. Were done here, weve won.)
TestingUnoDosTre: also been quite surprised about the amoung of gigahashes that have been dropped on the network in the last day or so
mircea_popescu: (for new people : mtgox failed miserably a year ago, this time. their lag was routinely in the half hour range. it's all in the logs. their response ? "we are a victim of our own success!!1"
ozbot: List of Victims of Their Own Success | Bitcointa.lk
TestingUnoDosTre: there was a 10k buy wall around when s/he made that bet
cgcardona_: i haven't checked the charts. how long before was it?
gribble: Error: Something in there wasn't a valid number.
TestingUnoDosTre: all of them!
mircea_popescu: anyway. epic article, all the lulz one could want for an evening.
mircea_popescu: Finally, its worth noting that Y Combinator has funded a total of 564 companies. More than 150 of those companies are less than 18 months old. Therefore, 80% of the companies are older than 18 months and have not been acquired.
mircea_popescu: SocialPicks. "SocialPicks provides individual investors with a trusted online investing community where they can invest smarter together."
mircea_popescu: surprise, fear and a fanatical devotion to the pope.
mircea_popescu: Divvyshot. "Divvyshot allows groups of friends to share their photos easily, at their full resolutions. It was a Y Combinator participant."
mircea_popescu: Whereoscope. Whereoscope is a service designed to help parents keep know where their kids are.
mircea_popescu: TextPayMe. "Founded in 2005, TextPayMe is an SMS payment service that lets you send money to other people using cell phone."
mircea_popescu: cgcardona_ i mean for curiosity's sake, re-do the same graph but not in log(10). in log(1024) instead. fucking flatlines.
mircea_popescu: on a log scale any two things are within an inch of each other.
artifexd: Would the other half be that numbers can be molested to demonstrate whatever whack theory the molester wants to demonstrate?
mircea_popescu: because what appears "close" is way the fuck out over there. as in the original graph, midway. the thing's all over the place.
mircea_popescu: artifexd I do understand your point that << that's only half the point. this much is valid, but!
artifexd: graphsketch.com << That's going into my bookmark list. I resorted to some silly site where I had to take screenshots and upload them to imgur.
mircea_popescu: cgcardona_ their job was easier, as they prolly hadn't invented the adversarial system either, so they could actually reach some sort of a decision.
cgcardona_: data porn is the best. imagine all the poor saps throughout history who had to make critical decisions in the moment and didn't have mounds of data porn to pour over.
artifexd: Random formulas aside, I do understand your point that any growing trend can be fitted to match any other growing trend if you futz with the scales enough.
cgcardona_: *ties it together*
TestingUnoDosTre: is that the logo for Munch on me?
artifexd: Verification of mircea_popescu theory failed.
artifexd: For further science and verification of mircea_popescu theory, here is tan(x) graphed against sin(x): http://i.imgur.com/oplWqjI.png
mircea_popescu: there, we have a logo
cgcardona_: yea when YC last year offered to fund people w/ no ideas the shark was officially jumped
mircea_popescu: "munch on me, munch off me, either way lunch is on me!"
mircea_popescu: or in other words... penis.
mircea_popescu: like you know... all the functionality of being on chatroulette without being on chatroulette.
mircea_popescu: SocialCam. "Socialcam is the easiest way to share video with your friends and on social networks."
mircea_popescu: VoiceGem. "Voicegem is the easiest way to send a voice message to anyone."
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller no. to the pki they tried toi get in "for verifying merchant's addresses" in spite of... everyone's objections.
mircea_popescu: cgcardona_ things degrade naturally, the same vicious circle as exhibited by used car markets that lemon laws try to fix : any seller with above-average value is disincentivised from participating.
thestringpuller: mircea_popescu: "Deliberately and quite maliciously tried to meld the BleedingHeart openssl vulnerability into the Bitcoin code." << you're referring to the 2FA they wanted to put in awhile back?
cgcardona_: hopefully the quality of YC companies will improve
mircea_popescu: i reiterate. the above was... a success ?
cgcardona_: MP - this is the new dude who took over ycombinator and his new request for submissions post http://blog.samaltman.com/new-rfs-breakthrough-technologies
mircea_popescu: The Fridge. "The Fridge is a platform for lightweight single serving social networks for the functionality of Facebook without being on Facebook."
mircea_popescu: joecool i heard the same thing but notrly substantiated.
mircea_popescu: TestingUnoDosTre because the server bleeds memory, in principle you can decrypt their 2fa challenge as well as anything else.
joecool: i assumed they gave up running an exchange and were focusing on trying to sell a plaform to someone else
mircea_popescu: joecool kenna tried to relaunch, the girl told him where to stick it, he wasn't heard from since ?
mircea_popescu: GEORGE: Its called Sendrax. Theyve got some new kind of technique for televising opera.
ozbot: Seinology.com :: Scripts :: 05-The Stock Tip
cgcardona_: think of the good times ahead
cgcardona_: and paul graham retired so the new dude can scale it 10X
TestingUnoDosTre: I'm thinking of making a bet along the lines of "bitstamp will issue a news statement that they are freezing bitcoin withdraws in the next 3 months." Thoughts, comments?
mircea_popescu: well we had bad experiences. in bitcoin i mean. there was that atrocious hole last year, pretty much put bitcoin-central on its ass.
joecool: ruby on rails, it's the hipster way
cgcardona_: says the bitlord
cgcardona_: for the ssl endpoints I pay
cgcardona_: i pay them about $40 a month
cgcardona_: sure. they sold for over $200 mil to salesforce
mircea_popescu: would you pay $100 for anything they do ?
cgcardona_: they're pretty cool IMO.
mircea_popescu: look art that list. not a single fucking "company" in there does anything.
cgcardona_: now I'm picturing sean parker as the maitre d'.
mircea_popescu: by now they're on tap as a "free trial" on every budged webhoster out there. gimme a break.
mircea_popescu: this shit. doesn't he look just like the maitre d' ?
joecool: probably the private key extraction challenge
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller fucking phones tho. it took forever.
thestringpuller: 22:23 <+cgcardona_> it's funny how IRC is **still** the best social network (forgive the term)i miss BBS; it got phased out when I was just a little one
mircea_popescu: the bank clerk was all excited "oh, you're going ? i'm going too!"
mircea_popescu: TestingUnoDosTre true story : i was in the bank the other day, and they had these timberlake concert fliers. i picked one up and told my pa "doesn't this guy look just like a waiter ?". he did, dressed all up for the job, too.
cgcardona_: it's been the best place for me to interact in real time for years
mircea_popescu: just for your own education, take two random things, such i dunno... sin(x) and cos(x) then draw them on a log graph. see how splendidly they fit
cgcardona_: yes I'm glad I found this room MP. the bitcoin forum is the bottom of the barrel and reddit is mostly memes and flamewars as well. (though don't ge me wrong. I enjoy a good meme and/or flamewar)
mircea_popescu: i would say upon examination this is exactly typical of the reddit mental process. very circular, very brandy futility.
mircea_popescu: cgcardona_ actually they're using every trick in the book. most any two natural curves will look "fitted" in a log 10 graph
cgcardona_: *which is the unique addresses used per day
cgcardona_: *green line which is the green line* <----huh?
cgcardona_: i think it's funny how you can see the large dip in the green line which is the green line. I'm wondering if that is just bad data or there really were just that many fewer addresses used those days
TestingUnoDosTre: Actually, she is a huge Bieber fan, lock her in solitary and the world will be a better place
cgcardona_: i'll see if I can dig up the reddit thread
cgcardona_: the first time I saw it I thought it was fake because it fit so well.
kakobrekla: nah fuck the fbi, its her reaction.
ozbot: Jeff Dunham-Achmed The Dead Terroist - YouTube
TestingUnoDosTre: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeYau6jH1eE this guy can make a living doing terrorist jokes, but when a little white girl does something retarded like sending a tweet claiming to be some foreigner the FBI gets involved
cgcardona_: the network effect of finance
gribble: mod6 was last seen in #bitcoin-assets 2 hours, 36 minutes, and 27 seconds ago: <mod6> Wonder if they would white-list me to a higher threshold for coins.
asciilifeform: from the freakshow:
mircea_popescu: no wait. the pitcoin pourse
mircea_popescu: the bitcoin pourse ?
mircea_popescu: cgcardona_ but technically it's like... "i'm in the club", as in, "i am a barber"
mircea_popescu: tsk. get in the wot will you.
gribble: Error: User doesn't exist in the Rating or GPG databases. User must be GPG-registered to receive ratings.
mircea_popescu: eh what the hey.
cgcardona_: the way I view it here is (per trilema) this is a room for professionals. we tie our identity to our gpg keys so there's accountability. Granted I've only been in the room a week so what do I know?
JorgePasada: That reminds me, we should have a euro version of the ATM prototyped within 3 weeks
mircea_popescu: kinda the same here no ?
cgcardona_: this is the only room i've been in where voice actually means something.
JorgePasada: Thanks for the voice
mircea_popescu: cgcardona_ not really. the relatively high pricing of the usd is based on (baseless) speculation of its future value.
cgcardona_: no connection to the price. all based on speculation of the future value of a coin right?
cgcardona_: the difficulty is freaking exploding.
mircea_popescu: i was on the sent tab for some reason
asciilifeform: (don't bother writing to herr fravia re: stego or his famous cracking tutorials. he's dead.)
asciilifeform: or we shall be told that they do.
asciilifeform: then again, the folks who (see mp's essay) reinvented caesar's cipher might well use it.
asciilifeform: the only purpose of 'encode obvious payload in low colour bits' is as a university class demo. and for planting.
mircea_popescu: incidentally : gpg armored lends itself splendidly to stego : the payload byte is only a few bits
asciilifeform: but, if fact, the above would be a parsimonious explanation.
asciilifeform: anyone remember the '20% of all gifs contain stego' newsbit?
mircea_popescu: there was a secret special dept in teh fsb dedicated to exactly this.
mircea_popescu: that's for a long time been the lol of alltime.
asciilifeform: this is actually a very tame hypothesis. intel agencies traditionally plant dangles for their colleagues of other (not necessarily unfriendly) kingdoms. and, given the u.s. being a fractured empire, why not dangles for... their fellows.
mircea_popescu: these days i guess.
asciilifeform: start-up where the entire office did nothing but play minigolf << that's the sv norm, no?
asciilifeform: not to plant evidence for any court, of course. for the consumption of... fellow 'intel' folks.
mircea_popescu: imagine a start-up where the entire office did nothing but play minigolf all day.
asciilifeform: it's the business of traditional goons, e.g. fbi. intel is 'classy.' rather create a sinner by injecting packets.
mircea_popescu: i entirely fail to see how "combing upstate ny for hilbillies inept enough to imagine they can fire magic death upon random targets" is in any sense the business of intel.
asciilifeform: the reason to bring this crapfest up - u.s. 'intelligence' apparatus has a number of purposes quite apart, and difficult to confuse for, intelligence.
asciilifeform: re: 'wreckers' - correct. since the entire raison d'etre of the u.s. security apparatus is now 'terrorism' - well, the fireman, absent a fire, buys a box of matches.
asciilifeform: yeah, ir sensor doesn't care who the tailpipe it flies into belongs to.
mircea_popescu: widely exported, and perhaps the #1 cause of friendly fire casualties in "unorganised" conflcits
gribble: Strela 2 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strela_2>; Man-portable air-defense systems - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man-portable_air-defense_systems>; SA-7 GRAIL (9K32M Strela-2): <http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/sa-7.htm>
mircea_popescu: uh why do they want a rocket ?
gribble: Strela (rocket) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strela_(rocket)>; Strela 2 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strela_2>; Russian Strela rocket launches Kondor satellite | NASASpaceFlight ...: <http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2013/06/strela-rocket-launch-kondor-e/>
bounce: hm. maybe I should try and fake this 20something for a bit then.
asciilifeform: the 'a) wanna buy strela? b) fuck off c) really, dontcha? b) ok sure c) off to jail' thing has been going so long that it doesn't even make national news every time now.
mircea_popescu: all sorts of fake-shrewd 20yo morons however, humping the "first best largest" delusion humptrain
bounce: the us "justice" system appears to be a, waht was it, chumpatron with press gangs
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform is there any proof whatsoever this charade included anything other/different from the soviet wrecker "confessions" ?
mircea_popescu: what the fuck is a radioactive death ray.
mod6: Wonder if they would white-list me to a higher threshold for coins.
mod6: ahh, im gonna write to them. my atc bot sends up http requests to get some json back so we can do things like: last_block, diff, etc. but from time to time, my host/ip seems to get tar-pitted. even for a low threshold.
asciilifeform: classic product of the bakery.
gribble: Assassination threats against Barack Obama - Wikipedia, the free ...: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_threats_against_Barack_Obama>; Man Pleads Guilty in Plot to Build Mobile Death Ray | Global ...: <http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/man-pleads-guilty-plot-build-mobile-death-ray/>; New York men arrested for building death ray machine in plot to kill ...: (1 more message)
mircea_popescu: mod6 iirc kakobrekla knew the people running it
asciilifeform: the purpose of 'hearbleed' et al isn't traffic intercept. (why intercept when you have root on the 'cloud' crapfarms?)