mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids you seem strangely immune to the currency notion.
herbijudlestoids: if the economic activity (or lack theroef) in those assets does not provide an appropriate amount of EPS growth
mircea_popescu: but yes, to complete the story : for all you know s.mpoe is the fractionary reserve of the btc superrich. for all you know s.mpoe is the doge of assets. for all you know s.mpoe is the golden ticket people dream with.
herbijudlestoids: the market implied EPS growth rate for FB/TWTR/GRPN are very very high. not as high as MPOE, but quite high
mircea_popescu: fb/groupon/etc for that matter either.
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids there's no compelling reason to believe the price of mpoe isn't derived from its value as a currency.
herbijudlestoids: ok maybe i am making some assumptions, but i think those assumptions: 1. that the price of MPOE is derived from something, 2. that MPOE is an economic entity 3. that the price of MPOE is derived from that economic activity
mircea_popescu: o btw... the bitcoin guild in rift ? biggest thing on server.
mircea_popescu: that's a theory explored in http://trilema.com/2012/is-smpoe-really-worth-that-much/
mircea_popescu: such as for instance as roughly the equivalent of a discounted us fed
mike_c: the havelock market implies a lot of things
mircea_popescu: another : maybe s.mpoe is becoming monetized in a particular manner,
ThickAsThieves: why does the market have to imply anything?
ThickAsThieves: maybe the price is cuz few holders hold most
herbijudlestoids: how do i know what...that the price of MPOE is derived from economic activities?
mircea_popescu: (don't get me wrong, i get the ample wtftude involved here. i humbly submit it's not because of me but because of fundamental issues stemming from the nature of btc)
mike_c: Duffer1 :) that's the second time. are you deliberately misspelling conservation?
herbijudlestoids: cos you said some bullshit about my focus on growth coming from fiat and that i should focus on the rate of conservation
mircea_popescu: o wait. we are arguing because you're claiming you can calculate the eps growth.
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: showing what the market is implying the EPS growth rate will be on an infinite horizon...
ThickAsThieves: can only be priced in the moment
mircea_popescu: this will need more research rather than simple c/p stuff that really doesn't work in fiat anyway
ThickAsThieves: well there's one
mircea_popescu: basically the lot of what i'm saying is that there are no acceptable models to valuate here.
herbijudlestoids: i have some experience with the same concept re gold
mircea_popescu: this makes the substitute p/b for any other way to get btc in the indefinite future also properly infinite.
mircea_popescu: the future value of bitcoin is pretty much infinite.
mircea_popescu: if one continues to interpolate the current difficulty of mining curve,
herbijudlestoids: pls stick to the angle
mircea_popescu: let's go yet another angle at this.
mircea_popescu: is the problem
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: i am totally fine with valuing MPOE on a book value basis. so what is the current P/B multiple?
ThickAsThieves: what the
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: i said *asset*. any of them, it doesnt matter.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: i thought the article ...i just wrote...makes it pretty clear? if youre buying one asset based on the 6 month historicals, then the future has to play out in a certain way for your investment to not underperform.
herbijudlestoids: sure, if so, i would value them identically
mike_c: no, i'm talking about with the same historicals (price and eps for last 6 months)
herbijudlestoids: uh...so youre talking about two securities, both with the same known future rate of return?
mike_c: hm, try this. would s.mpoe returning 1% a year be the same to you as 7C returning 1% a year?
herbijudlestoids: so, S.MPOE priced at 100BTC per share is just as good an investment as S.MPOE at 0.0000001 per share then
mike_c: well, that was part of his point. the pmb will necessarily decay. mpoe won't.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: if im dependent on the ask price at end of life then its a speculation not investment
Bugpowdurr: but doesn't at the moment due to unannounced options segregation
mircea_popescu: not in the case at hand tho.
ThickAsThieves: herb the problem with all that really is you can't apply your numbers without making assumptions, but in fact, only one assumption can be made, you're making too many assumptions
Bugpowdurr: I was thinking that someone could deduce whether the whale short the puts had been stopped out by MKOPT / EXERCISE a number of options and see how many were assigned to him vs. other.
Bugpowdurr: "Bear in mind that whenever someone exercises options of your symbol you will be allocated a portion of the executions corresponding to your total share of created contracts for that symbol. Thus if you create 100 O.BTCUSD.C50T and someone else creates 150, in case there's an execution of 50 contracts you will be assigned 20 of those."
mircea_popescu: normally executions are distributed to actual held options randomly, but atm im holding the pre 14th set apart.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowdurr how would they force someone's short position anyway ?
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: if the price i pay today for MPOE is more than the total amount of gains that MPOE can bring in over say, 10 years, then it is a bad investment for people looking for assets to invest in for 10 years
Bugpowdurr: And in theory, a 3rd party could force exercise of someone else's short position by mkopt -> exercise chains?
Bugpowdurr: If there are 3000 contracts of an option outstanding sold to bot, then another user creates another 500 contracts, and then exercises them without selling them, does that force the exercise of a fraction of the previously sold options?
ThickAsThieves: there's only one way to price mpoe
ThickAsThieves: the answer is obvious nayway
ThickAsThieves: for an many things as herb covered he only scratched the surface
mircea_popescu: for that matter, even the s.mpoe mkt cap comparison to an actual comp is broken.
ThickAsThieves: but even then
mircea_popescu: no other business in the history of business sits in this position of "can only turn a profit"
mircea_popescu: trying to compare those Ys with these Ys misses both points.
mircea_popescu: anyway, let's consider the historical case as it played out. s.mpoe vs pmbs
herbijudlestoids: youre saying something like...the rate of return is not important, this other rate, the rate at which an economic activity can "conserve" bitcoins
mircea_popescu: from what i gather in this chan most do.
herbijudlestoids: im asking. you said focus on rate of conservation...i fail to see why i would invest in any security in that case, rather than investing in good wallet practices etc
mircea_popescu: none of the 15% a year fiat bs.
mircea_popescu: but i suspect this is the overarching point here : 1% gains over a century are immense,
mircea_popescu: mike_c this is actually true, tho at the rate we're going by the time btc moneyness reaches balance the remaining inflation will indeed be very low
mike_c: plus inflation. bitcoins in the sofa will shrink on a % basis.
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: why do i need to buy a security then? the rate of conservation for holding bitcoin is 100%
mircea_popescu: well it's all highly speculative, nobody has the first inkling wtf is going on here.
herbijudlestoids: if the price of S.MPOE does not include growth, then why am i paying more than its dividend value for it?
mircea_popescu: imaginary "growth" in the interim notwithstanding.
mircea_popescu: fwiw, i don't think the entire "growth" bs is worth two shits.
mike_c: add those thoughts to your post. it will improve it. blog readers like opinions with their stats.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: well it depends i guess. mircea_popescu was telling me something about 1% being the natural RoR in bitcoin under one calculation but in a different calculation 1000s of %
Duffer1: Herbi you should paywall your blog, make them work for it ^.^
herbijudlestoids: you guys sure are weird sometimes. benkay, the point of the article is to highlight things that people might not know about. if i had some info or opinoin that MPOE was undervalued or overvalued, why would i put it on the blog for morons to see instead of just buying or selling MPOE?
mike_c: ok, so forget the article. i am curious what your opinion is.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: whether or not i have an opinion really has shit all to do with the article
mike_c: so you have no opinion on the price? you are just a calculator?
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: im not saying too high lol, im saying *this is what the market is implying EPS growth will be*
benkay: humans operating in those fields frequently lose the ability to communicate with others outside of those narrow, ultraspecialized fields.
benkay: the curse of technical fields
herbijudlestoids: "This premium over normal fair values (compare to our earlier SPY example) assigned by the market under assumptions that EPS growth will be very large. Investors who pay the premium today will be rewarded with reasonable returns only if the actual future EPS growth averages at or above this level for a significant period of time. Otherwise the investment can reasonably be expected to provide a poor long term retur
herbijudlestoids: rest of the paragraph
mike_c: "that the Market Implied EPS Growth rate for S.MPOE is very, very high."
herbijudlestoids: if you can somehow prove the price is (or isnt) locally efficient, then we can talk about how informative the price is
herbijudlestoids: theres nowhere that says its overvalued. the point is, you get paid a decent long term return if the implied EPS is <= actual future EPS. if its > then you dont.
herbijudlestoids: i said, if we assume, for the sake of an experiment, that the market has priced efficiently, then this is what its implying as EPS growth
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: if what you quoted is what you took away from the blog post, i guess i must suck at communicating.
herbijudlestoids: guise, i setup a page to grep the log.bitcoin-assets for mentions of my name
mircea_popescu: <mike_c> i love quants. "if we assume the market is correctly pricing this stock, then we can derive that this stock is overpriced" :) >> pretty much it.
benkay: back test all the things
gribble: The operation succeeded.
mike_c: ;;later tell herbijudlestoids it would be interesting to analyze s.mpoe price based on 2012 earnings and then see how that analysis would have performed over 2013.
mike_c: i love quants. "if we assume the market is correctly pricing this stock, then we can derive that this stock is overpriced" :)
ThickAsThieves: thats how he got the name, ok
asciilifeform: 'selective plane illumination' microscope. not relevant to anything, except that the photo inevitably leads to the thought, 'hate to be the one caught in an airport search with this.'
asciilifeform: 'guess the gadget'
nubbins`: maybe the second worst move possible
Apocalyptic: one of the worse indeed
nubbins`: maybe the worst move possible
asciilifeform: mathematical view of this: what is the 'mutation-space' surrounding the 'correct' state like.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform you mean what, in the code ?
asciilifeform: q: any of you folks ever bitflipfuzz the referenceclient ?
mircea_popescu: these too not necessarily contradictory :p
nubbins`: can't have too many features in the trial version
nubbins`: ehh, more likely that they'd just prefer you use wordpress.org instead
mircea_popescu: they too lazy to properly set up zones or something
nubbins`: honestly the only hassle with wordpress.com is trying to funnel both your email and your web traffic through the same domain
pankkake: and well, you can go from the .com to your own instance
benkay: not really a big problem in the grand scheme of things
benkay: yeah the comment engine thing is a problem
pankkake: disqus exists because static blog generators didn't resolve the comments part; and making the result worse in the end!
pankkake: typically disqus is shit because you don't have control of the comments
pankkake: the second you don't like it you can move out
mircea_popescu: i dunno dood. say by putting a link TO THEMSELVES on your shit.
mircea_popescu: with a prolapsed colon and barefoot down the street.
mircea_popescu: whenever you're done taking it in the ass you can move quickly
pankkake: herbiju*: I'll provite leet hosting for a 5% cut of the prize
nubbins`: pff, as if staying away from blogger is going to make a difference there
pankkake: except it's from The Google
nubbins`: don't hate on the man's hosting!
pankkake: I would never open a mysql server to the world, always use a tunnel
pankkake: and yeah, authentication on the protocol level is usually useless, redundant, and a liability (i.e. "can you really rely on it")
benkay: unpassword all the things
pankkake: eh. postgres does not even require passwords, provided the querying user is in the right group or something
benkay: just lock the boxes with ssh and go smoke a bowl breh
benkay: unless you have the rigor to do a '12f' application, don't fuck around with cargocult 12fa
benkay: and also ssh keys all the thing
benkay: pankkake: i'm talking about everyone else out there
Apocalyptic: was refering to the dog though
benkay: the least google-able programming language.
pankkake: I'm not discussing the merits of neo&bee as an investment
pankkake: though the question is… what has bitcoin to do with it
pankkake: if they manage to have many merchants in cyprus, why not?
thecapitalr: im not sure.. i honestly am just learning.. I know that their IPO price on LMB holdings is .003 but you have been able to trade it on havelock for a while. The price on havelock is also ~.003
benkay: thecapitalr: what were the terms of their ipo? "buy our stock at this price, trading begins on this date"?
benkay: anyways, point is some mortal gets arrogant and struck down by the gods
thecapitalr: i sitll like them... interested in seeing what happens on the 23rd after their ipo runs out
benkay: unworthy of a goddess. To all this let me add, I have seven sons and seven daughters, and look for sons-in-law and daughters-in-law of pretensions worthy of my alliance. Have I not cause for pride? Will you prefer to me this Latona, the Titan's daughter, with her two children? I have seven times as many. Fortunate indeed am I, and fortunate I shall remain! Will any one deny this?
benkay: folly," said she, "is this! to prefer beings whom you never saw to those who stand before your eyes! Why should Latona be honored with worship rather than I? My father was Tantalus, who was received as a guest at the table of the gods; my mother was a goddess. My husband built and rules this city, Thebes; and Phrygia is my paternal inheritance. Wherever I turn my eyes I survey the elements of my power; nor is my form and presence
benkay: It was on occasion of the annual celebration in honor of Latona and her offspring, Apollo and Diana, when the people of Thebes were assembled, their brows crowned with laurel, bearing frankincense to the altars and paying their vows, that Niobe appeared among the crowd. Her attire was splendid with gold and gems, and her face as beautiful as the face of an angry woman can be. She stood and surveyed the people with haughty looks. "What
kakobrekla: nubbins pissed cause neobee doesnt use him to print their shits
benkay: ThickAsThieves: what is the actual deal with Neobee after all?
benkay: if you're operating at the interface of fiat and bitcoin, you're going to have a bad time.
thecapitalr: i threw .2 BTC into it a while back... not a whole lot obviously but enough to test the waters
ThickAsThieves: that's the cartoon of Altcoin
mircea_popescu: i guess we see when the reports come neh ?
mircea_popescu: either that or down.
peterl: if MP is reacing out to do advertisements, should we expect the price of S.MPOE to go up soon?
asciilifeform: (the physical ends.)
asciilifeform: i suppose there, somewhere in the jungles, there still lives a fellow who has seen neither end of a satellite tx/rx.
punkman: how is my puny wifi card gonna talk back to the sat though?
asciilifeform: it comes with an extra helping of insult to the intelligence of a five-year-old ?
mircea_popescu: punkman sure it is. in the sense the sec and italian govt and everything else are feasible,
pankkake: sure, but the form has a "ad inquiries" choice
mircea_popescu: and since we're taking wired, blaze, washington post and all the rest of the crap, here's some interesting internets newz :
mircea_popescu: pankkake its what they use atm.
asciilifeform: 'dog sees master as large dog' theorem.
ozbot: The strange case of the delusionist and later stories. pe Trilema - Un blog de Mircea Popescu.
mircea_popescu: it doesn't HAVE to be an irc chan, but that's prolly the simplest implementation.
peterl: is that how openbsd got a bunch of money from you, by passing the test?
peterl: what is the openbsd test?
mircea_popescu: consequently, the love will have to wait cause im not about to give topatoco w/e 20 dollars so some people i like can make 30 cents
mircea_popescu: punkman i agree. sadly they don't respond to emails and don't have a (working) relationship with an agent and don't fuck anyone i fuck and so on.
asciilifeform: parachute theorem.
mircea_popescu: why ask two weeks after rather than two weeks before ?
mircea_popescu: thecapitalr as i usually say to people, http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=17-02-2014#511169
pankkake: well, 18 then 13, but.
mircea_popescu: thecapitalr you bought at 18 or w/e it was ?
Duffer1: thecapitalr just keep your btc bro
asciilifeform: re: reference client rewrite etc. : http://oglaf.com/chronotherapy/
mircea_popescu: seems the linked post is made out of fairly uncontroversial and easily checked statements.
mircea_popescu: thecapitalr what's cbtc ?
mircea_popescu: isn't that the electric itam ?
mircea_popescu: as well as the thread thus collected
mircea_popescu: davout a spool is the object upon which you collect a thread
benkay: the spooling
mircea_popescu: where's the cock spool one
davout: well... pipe it then :-)
davout: anyway, chain gpg with whatever streams your clipboard from or to the standard input
punkman: or the cloud
punkman: I haven't used GPG enough then
asciilifeform: just the same as always.
asciilifeform: to entertain people with cartoons while they lay back and get pwned
davout: moar convenience i guess, but that's what you describe, gpg is smart enough if there's no ambiguity
mircea_popescu: what is the functionality sought here ?
mircea_popescu: i don't get it, gpg already recognises destinations by name, email, keyd out of the box
davout: but even without autocomplete you can just give the first unambiguous chars of a key name and gpg will be smart enough to pick the right one
davout: punkman: i'm a heretic, i'm on osx, but the gpg i have does it, o wait, its probably zsh, stupid me
asciilifeform: 'syntactic sugar causes cancer of the semicolon.'
mircea_popescu: punkman what's wrong with, you know, the wot ?
punkman: I just liked the command line utility, I want to associate nicknames to keys
asciilifeform: the less dour the presentation, the more childlike the graphics, the more guaranteed.
davout: i skimmed over it and concluded, maybe too fast, that it was just syntactic sugar around the gpg binary or sthg
asciilifeform: i always think, 'scroll down to where the bastard wants your keys'
asciilifeform: channelling herr moldy and orlov: '...it's not clear that you'll want the old world on your resume.'
mircea_popescu: o, you're from X company ? so you're too stupid to live, right, just like the geniuses that founded okcupid, facebook, whatnot.
mircea_popescu: anyway, the positive here is that all these fucktards are rapidly giving old style fiat credentials a bad name.
mircea_popescu: no cause they're encrypted you know.
asciilifeform: let's store private keys on this other fellow's box!
mircea_popescu: send the fingermen.
blg: benkay: are you referring to the secret service arrests of localbitcoin users?
mircea_popescu: i dont have the shit loaded
asciilifeform: '...certain crypto actions (signing and decrypting) are limited to users who store client-encrypted copies of their private keys on the server, an optional feature we didn't mention above...'
mircea_popescu: "The first time I went to jail I was 18 years old. I had gone AWOL from the navy, was living with 3 prostitutes, and befriended an older Marine. The Marine and I decided to pull an armed robbery of a small convenience store. A policeman happened to be in the area, and after a long chase we were arrested and went to jail."
mircea_popescu: interesting what they need laws for.
mircea_popescu: No, sir, not crazy said the maitre d, We are a bilingual city.
mircea_popescu: That c is for the English word cold.
mircea_popescu: Guy eating in an elegant restaurant in Montreal leaves his table to use the mens room and comes out screaming.