TestingUnoDosTre: ill think of one over the next couple few weeks
mircea_popescu: still waiting for locations to submit their offers.
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: I dun have an official account, but at least 3. mircea_popescu kakobrekla and the secret mod or mods
mircea_popescu: well, if it ever is disclosed, you'll be the first to know.
mircea_popescu: bitcoin betting. it really is killing the margins for irl betting.
mircea_popescu: but definitely fewer than the sands.
alexsanjose: and how many employees do u have on just the bitbet end?
alexsanjose: beats the sands for higher average bet u mean
mircea_popescu: bitbet beats the sands, you read it here first.
mircea_popescu: meanwhile, that means that the AVERAGE bet is like 1.5 btc,
mircea_popescu: incidentallyt, there've been a total of about 10k bets, so that's an upper bound
alexsanjose: so i can use the above phrasing?
mircea_popescu: whether this is 15k people or 3 is immaterial.
kakobrekla: alexsanjose the things we can measure, we measure and publish, see numbers in the footer on bitbet
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: If they go off of addresses alone I am 20 some users. If they narrow things down based on shit talking I am 2-3 users
mircea_popescu: not really. we don't even bother keeping analytics, so.
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose depends whether you want us to.
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: Maybe they can
alexsanjose: can u track all those bets to the same user
alexsanjose: well i ll miss the spoon feeding
mircea_popescu: i can't recall who the ap guy was here.
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: THe alternative is we switch allegiances to AP
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose seriously, someone over at reuters has to eventually figure out how to create a gpg key, reg it with gribble, get in the wot.
BingoBoingo: There are a lot of ways this assumption could fork
BingoBoingo: What do you mean not have their own accounts?
mircea_popescu: well you add up the 12 monthlies
alexsanjose: so -- apols if this is out there -- but i see monthly profits. DO u have annual for 2013?
BingoBoingo: The wired guy pretty much hid in PM's
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: Here's a writeup on some of the bigger bets in BitBet history for some perspective http://www.thedrinkingrecord.com/2014/03/16/interlude-the-big-bets/
mircea_popescu: say a bet started today ending next month with a 10:1 spread, you bet in 3 weeks on the 10 side.
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose yes, it's possible. also discussed in the faq.
alexsanjose: is it possible for u to win and have no net gain? like so many humans take the same side as u and no one opposes and so u all just get back what u put in?
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose no, the rake is charged on resolution.
BingoBoingo: Even the pettiest shit is betable if you can guarentee a starting stake
mircea_popescu: there's no minimum
alexsanjose: ah rejected possible topics bets! i thot u meant that if someone wants to bet too little money their bet was rejected
alexsanjose: but wait it s not 4 am there
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose bets as in propositions get rejected, because not everything can be bet on. see the faq on bitbet, it details it.
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: Because MP, kakobrekla and MP's slavegirls don't think it is interesting is the big rejection reason
alexsanjose: u still there?
mircea_popescu: anyway, spent some time in san jose, originally landed there planing to stay a week, ended up staying like 3 years.
alexsanjose: was just there covering elections but back in mexico city
alexsanjose: this is the best interview ever :)
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: I bet there and I submit bets to there. More than half of my submitted bets have been rejected. I' a regualr in this channel though.
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: They really can't. Even mircea_popescu can't affect when the world series ends.
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: Of course it is. And the best practice for this is plato when he is modeling a drunk crowd in the dialogues.
alexsanjose: haha! and do u deliberately try to space out the bets so a tricle of them are coming due every week month etc?
alexsanjose: for example there is a way to say "my" when u mean "myhusband" and a different "my" for "my bitcoin wallet" cuz humans matter more
asciilifeform: today i lined up a bunch of inglischers and had them try reading Ro street signs, menus, etc. from photographs.
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: Sometimes they come up with bet, sometimes assholes like me write bets http://bitbet.us/bet/769/crimea-2-electric-boogaloo/
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo you know it occurs to me it's probably like a particular cognitive skill, being able to follow irc convos. "disentagle a skein of thought" as the expression went.
alexsanjose: no its just interesting. for english speakers romance languages sorta open your world view when they teach u subjunctive and then the african languages is like a whol different kettle of fish
mircea_popescu: what do you mean where they come from o.O
alexsanjose: and where do the bets come from? is that something you guys come up w ?
BingoBoingo: much of the profit comes from infrequent, but increasingly frequent massive bets
alexsanjose: so what is the breakdown on profit -- rake v advertising?
artifexd: Hey, look at that. There's even a twitter feed that I can pull from.
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: That bet I linked http://bitbet.us/bet/34/an-asic-unit-from-either-bfl-avalon-or/ gives a good dataset for understanding how successive bets affect bitbet winnings
mircea_popescu: http://www.alexalper.com/resume/ << check it out, the luddite has a dedicated website.
asciilifeform: i notice that the folks who are innocent of python et al can still work a spreadshit. somebody maybe post a spreadshit for them.
ozbot: BitBet - An ASIC unit from either BFL, Avalon or BTCFPGA will ship before Feb 1st.
mircea_popescu: artifexd no there's feeds.
artifexd: Is there a feed or would I have to continually poll?
alexsanjose: and does that account for 100 pct of the profit?
alexsanjose: and what s the rake?
mircea_popescu: TestingUnoDosTre bounce artifexd mike_c and the rest of the supermath python gurus : maybe write a script that takes a bet and spits out the moving odds as the bets come in ?
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: I dunno if you parse python much, but the math for calculating winnings is all in here https://bitcointa.lk/threads/is-bitbet-us-buggy.86712/#post-1492473
BingoBoingo: If you lose you lose. That part is simple. Winning is the complicated part.
alexsanjose: its february, 2015. obama has overlooked a growing trend and failed to mention those two syllables -- i lose 100 pct of the bet i placed, no?
BingoBoingo: If you win though, it really depends on what happens to the pot after you place your bet. You could win more or less.
alexsanjose: if i lose i lose the entire 1 btc i bet, correct?
alexsanjose: but on the mechanics of it, kust to be simple, assuming the odds dont change -- i put in 1 btc and get out 1.24 if i win
BingoBoingo: And bets are committed until the bet's resolution.
asciilifeform: other fun feature, in my eyes, is that a prediction market has an... action market, 'inside, wiggling to get out.'
alexsanjose: the odds shift as the numbers of players and amounts of bets shifts the balance on either side?
BingoBoingo: The thing is mutual betting so it is pile of money and weight versus other pile of money and weight.
BingoBoingo: Large bets can move the pot considerably.
alexsanjose: and the odds below lay out your earnings should u win
alexsanjose: so u bet the sum that u wish
alexsanjose: prolly some sort of ethics violation there. i ll ask tho
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: You can place any amount. It may be easier if you go through the process of placing a position on BitBet. I can give/lend you a balance to do this depending on your agency's ethic's rules.
BingoBoingo: Through a respect for the immutability of actual history
BingoBoingo: Instead of accounts everything is merely a ledger balance, forced into the right place
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: They way Bitbet works is everything is tied to addresses
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose that'd be part of the great power of bitcoin. you don't need accounts.
alexsanjose: transfer money from their wallet
alexsanjose: i was just surprised because i know the sites i m familiar with require custoemrs to set up an account
BingoBoingo: Currency died in the 1970's it is all about assets nao
mircea_popescu: not all that useful these days.
mircea_popescu: well then we got problems.
asciilifeform: alexsanjose: it takes about the same titanic intellectual effort as operating... a lift.
mircea_popescu: i'm also worth a few million atc, i guess, which is a similar problem. what sort of business opportunity did i see there ?
asciilifeform: 'Fairy Tales are blamed for teaching children that there are such things as monsters. Children already know that there are monsters. What Fairy Tales really teach is that monsters can be killed.'
BingoBoingo: alexsanjose: The erstwhile competitor to BitBet was betsofbitco.in (Operator has since disappeared)
mircea_popescu: at the time we made bitbet, there also existed a "competitor", i forget the exact thing
mircea_popescu: you're missing a lot of history. at the time i made mpex, there existed a "competitor", glbse. it was basically a scam, and has meanwhile died
mircea_popescu: "Hes ostentatious he once folded up paper airplanes made of money and threw them from Vkontakte office windows."
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose did you read http://trilema.com/2013/the-positive-market-effects-of-the-delivery-bet/ ?
BingoBoingo: Plz tell me it was thissun http://www.thedrinkingrecord.com/
mircea_popescu: did you read the contract, incidentally ?
BingoBoingo: thestringpuller: Sure
BingoBoingo: thestringpuller: Why aren't you a grandpa?
BingoBoingo: Given the number of shit shows and shit characters, the default assumption probably ought to be negative, but there is probably a positive bias because these things tend to happen on the basic that the characters were memorable
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller yes, if gribble blinks. i was in that situation earier today
gribble: Nick 'thestringpuller', with hostmask 'thestringpuller!~leflor@99-39-97-12.lightspeed.tukrga.sbcglobal.net', is not identified.
asciilifeform: you can always tell who the 'mean girlz' are
asciilifeform: anyone who ever took part in the academia racket knows that 'anonymous referees' is a crock o'shit
mircea_popescu: "It is about time to abolish the immoral institution of `Anonymous Referee'. Even in the paper era, with its paper-mentality elitism, it was superfluous. A paper is either worth publishing or not. If it is not, you should have the guts to say it out loud, and if you are right, the author should thank you for saving him or her embarrassment."
TestingUnoDosTre: i don't see these people?
BingoBoingo: I keep the Golda Meir next to Menachem Begin's cunny wafts
gribble: Water torch - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_torch>; DIY HHO Torch (Water Torch) for only $4 - Instructables: <http://www.instructables.com/id/DIY-HHO-Torch-Water-Torch-for-only-4/>; turn water to fire - YouTube: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwlOw7iCNrI>
BingoBoingo: Thankfully ETOH troche's already exist (Jello Shots in the vulgate)
asciilifeform: re: cooking with acetylene - fellow DIY crackpot suggested to me, hooking an oxygen cylinder to the air intake of laser cutter in place of compressor
kakobrekla: if not, try to bug someone on private (usually you can open a private window by doublecliking on the nickname)
BingoBoingo: asciilifeform: Seems the impetus is novelty sales.
asciilifeform: and wtf the point of solid ethanol? snorting?
asciilifeform: re: arbitrage people - i've an arbitrobot, common lisp, sits sadly, 'cockpit glass to the sky, wings with holes'
asciilifeform: like many other useful things
BingoBoingo: asciilifeform: I had a suspicion you'd be the first person to bring the c-word into this
kakobrekla: alexsanjose , IRC is not always a real time thing, but once you get the conversation going its the best way to go
gribble: Clathrate compound - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_compound>; Methane clathrate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate>; Clathrate hydrate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_hydrate>
asciilifeform: re: solid alcohol: the word is clathrate.
kakobrekla: he is online most of the any day.
alexsanjose: would there be a way to sked a chat in here?
kakobrekla: lol, thanks but yours isnt bad either!
moiety: it's funny what's said about glass at coachella, when there was a giant snail going about filming everything
BingoBoingo: I think that is all of the endorsement Google Glass needs. Abandoned faster than NeoBBQ
ThickAsThieves: they had that one day where anyone could buy a Google Glass, that was probably them cashing out
BingoBoingo: ThickAsThieves: http://valleywag.gawker.com/emperor-of-the-glassholes-finally-feels-shame-1566277951/+sarah-hedgecock
ThickAsThieves: "A massive computer failure at the US Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR) is reportedly wreaking havoc on US immigration courts, with application outages continuing well into their second week."
BingoBoingo: moiety: Naturally, but definitely not on the discount whiffs.
moiety: mircea_popescu: i think it would, she wins on the exotic front
BingoBoingo: joecool: Older attempts indeed used dextrose along with some heavier carbohydrates. Probably the same or similar here
joecool: BingoBoingo: what are they using as a bulking agent, dextrose?
BingoBoingo: joecool: Well the bulk is necessary to render it a powder
moiety: lol mircea_popescu i'd imagine some celebrities would be cheaper and more supply than others, like lindsay lohan compared to lisa kudrow for example
BingoBoingo: Once the binders are accounted for that's probably still in the end 32 grams just to take a shot of vodka nasally.
BingoBoingo: Spz an one ounce shot of vodka, which is ~32 grams... That's about 10 grams of ETOH plus binders to get up the nose
mircea_popescu: moiety i wonder if there's any money in "famous star queefs"
BingoBoingo: They have not to my knowledge
ThickAsThieves: meanwhile the BFL 28nm chips still havent shipped?
BingoBoingo: It's physical properties preclude it from being as snortable as say... cocaine and heroin... because it takes quite a bit of alcohol by mass to induce the desired effect.
BingoBoingo: The weight is necessary, because alcohol is a substance
BingoBoingo: Basically you disolve the alcohol into a mix of sugars and higher molecular weight carbohydrates.
BingoBoingo: ThickAsThieves: My objection to it as recreational consumer is that the carbohydrates are going to make shit too sweet.
ThickAsThieves: "5. How is it made? If we told you, we'd have to shoot you. We are in the process of patenting it and it is currently patent pending."
ThickAsThieves: "The Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau told CNN that its approval of Palchohol was an error."
BingoBoingo: People out in the boonies use propane for household use if they lack infrastructure for real gas
moiety: fluffypony: i didn't even go to the site
fluffypony: moiety: did you at least get a pink knitted jersey with the Bitcoin logo on it?
benkay: see i typically cook on grills wired into the natural gas
mircea_popescu: i mean ppl say "gas is not the same flavour", but : propane stinks.
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: American gas grills typically top out around 600F at a cooking height above the burners. Because we suck. (problem can be remedied by using acetylene instead of propane
benkay: hot enough for Maillard on the surface?
benkay: there are tradeoffs everywhere.
fluffypony: plus a charcoal braai is a South African tradition, we even have a public holiday that has become Braai Day (nfi what the actual holiday is for any longer)
benkay: these days all i want is a hot gas flowing by
fluffypony: BingoBoingo: that's the way forward, I tend to burn my meat a lil' on an open flame, but in the Weber I can shove the coals to the side and let it cook at leisure
mircea_popescu: this was open gas oven. not ideal, but i found a way to use the cast iron pan's handle to prop the door open just enough. gets it reasonably cool.
BingoBoingo: Sometime this summer I want to try a standing beef rib roast on the kettle grill.
mircea_popescu: well there's lousy...
benkay: to be fair to thestringpuller mod6 and i've been unpredictably online lately
mircea_popescu: poor guy. we love you still thestringpuller, it's just cute is all.
BingoBoingo: Oh, what did thestringpuller do recently?
mircea_popescu: works. show up on some sort of romanian time tho, otherwise we'll be all thestringpullering this for a week :D
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: If he's amenable to the thing I'll probably be inclined to try it as there's a bit more details nao. I'm going to drink on this idea and let tomorrow's hangover show the way.
mircea_popescu: course gotta see if the guy's amenable to it too, but otherwise should be win-win-win, he gets some activity, you get more trading experience, i get some gains or w/e.
BingoBoingo: I don't think I've ever worked to narrow a spread. I've tried to keep the ATC spread as wide as Hilary's ass.
mircea_popescu: (to speak you type in the bottom bar and hit enter)
mircea_popescu: currently the spread is wider than my fist.
BingoBoingo: Well, the outstanding student loan debts make holding any substantial USD impractical
mircea_popescu: alexsanjose you the reuters chick ?
mircea_popescu: it's basically just a scaled up version of the atc thing
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: I don't think I have the time to effectively do btc/usd artbitrage
BingoBoingo: horrifying text is the best
BingoBoingo: asciilifeform: Very interesting. I was actually thinking about maybe going cheap and just canoeing the mississippi and gulf coast to Mexico
BingoBoingo: Well most of the communication with the lawyer has been either in person or over the mail.
benkay: granted, my clients are small and derpy with the technology.
asciilifeform: can't recall the last time using stamp
BingoBoingo: I do rather frequently.
mircea_popescu: who the fuck uses stamps.
asciilifeform: the prices are merely reflective of scarcity.
ozbot: With Cigarettes Banned In Most Prisons, Gangs Shift From Drugs To Smokes - The Daily Beast
mircea_popescu: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/06/02/with-cigarettes-banned-in-most-prisons-gangs-shift-from-drugs-to-smokes.html#url=/articles/2013/06/02/with-cigarettes-banned-in-most-prisons-gangs-shift-from-drugs-to-smokes.html
asciilifeform: they don't
mircea_popescu: holy shit. this is almost as good as the music industry.
mircea_popescu: "Once the tobacco is on the compound, the pouches wholesale for 50 books of stamps, or $300 each. Each pouch is then broken down into 80 to 100 tiny rollups that cost one book each, or six dollars. A $3 pouch of Bugler ends up retailing inside for about $600a 20,000% markup."
ozbot: A complete theory of economics pe Trilema - Un blog de Mircea Popescu.
gribble: Lumped element model - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumped_element_model>; Lumped Approximation - inst.eecs: <http://inst.eecs.berkeley.edu/~ee100/fa08/lectures/EE100supplementary_notes_1a.pdf>; Lumped vs. Distributed Systems - CCRMA - Stanford University: <https://ccrma.stanford.edu/~jos/NumericalInt/Lumped_vs_Distributed_Systems.html>
asciilifeform: http://abstrusegoose.com/564 << this (unfortunately minus the second half!) actually happened.
fluffypony: oh it was mentioned in the context of Mirceanomics
ThickAsThieves: "o, it's not. It's a public statement made by the director of a TV show which implies that if a woman being raped begins to enjoy it, it was never rape in the first place. This is worthy of discussion since it is tantamount to saying that all women enjoy being raped because deep down, they all love it, and all of their screaming and crying and desperate fighting to defend themselves
gribble: WARNING: Currently not authenticated. Trust relationship from user ThickAsThieves to user twizt: Level 1: 0, Level 2: 0 via 0 connections. Graph: http://b-otc.com/stg?source=ThickAsThieves&dest=twizt | WoT data: http://b-otc.com/vrd?nick=twizt | Rated since: Mon Apr 14 23:22:42 2014
ThickAsThieves: and that the policy be *retroactive*
ThickAsThieves: required they no longer take a % of the company for themselves as a requirement to presenters
ThickAsThieves: the missus informs me that part of Mark Cuban's renewal contract with Shark Tank,
ThickAsThieves: i just had the wrong one plugged in
ThickAsThieves: turns out it wasnt the hard drive psu
ThickAsThieves: sure, in computers, all the time
ThickAsThieves: i thought my backup drive died while away, turns out it was just the power supply
mircea_popescu: s done, the diff ?
bounce: there's (at least) also rufus roo, bagket, and stuffa jacket
bounce: right, that's the first one I head about. there's a few more that produce a similar thing these days though.
mircea_popescu: check out the new terrorist bomber blazer.
ThickAsThieves: but the testingunodostres example does still ring sour
mircea_popescu: the interval between where the bet event unexpectedly took place and the time when the mod got around to closing the bet is by its nature variable
mircea_popescu: whereas the moderators are human beings.
mircea_popescu: because it's not fixed, because the bet event can resolve at any given time,
ThickAsThieves: so the only cirumstance for refund is if it's just before closing?
mircea_popescu: currently it works like so : if your bet makes it on bitbet after the bet is closed, it goes to dividends. if your bet makes it before it's closed but after an arbitrary time selected by bitbet mods, you get it back minus 1%
davout: isn't it, if you miss either you're fucked ?
ThickAsThieves: what's the current rule, if you miss closing you get a refund, if you miss resolution yer fucked?
davout: jurov: the rationale is that if you count as valid bets that were sent very close to the time limit, and refund those who confirmed slightly after, you're creating an incentive to cheat since failure at cheating isn't punished
mircea_popescu: all things can easily be treated in the same way
jurov: in bitbet case, both can easily be treated in the same way
mircea_popescu: i kinda have the same feeling
ThickAsThieves: i feel like i missed the beginning of this conversation
chetty: there is a difference between error and attempt to cheat ...
mircea_popescu: there's nothing common or sensible about common sense
jurov: well.. that bitbet thing... if someone transferred money in error, it has become common sense to return them
ThickAsThieves: i think my personal !up rule will be, I will up you on your first day, or if you are in mobile situations, otherwise, get with the program