mircea_popescu: it'll work, too. mexico has a better chance of ruling the us than either democrat or republican party in ten years.
mircea_popescu: much in the manner of england colonising china
mircea_popescu: also a doomed hope. the cartels will sooner or later make continued oil exports dependent on continued opium imports
TheNewDeal: regardless of saudi, mexico is ~1/4 - 1/3 of the opec total
mircea_popescu: taking him to all the good fleecing spots.
mircea_popescu: it's an ally of the us in thesense the tour guide of the fat tourist is an ally of his.
mircea_popescu: saudi arabia is in no way on the list.
mircea_popescu: and once the withdrawal is complete by autumn i wonder just how safe any us interests in the midwest will ever be again.
mircea_popescu: at any rate, back on the realpolitik map, i wonder just how defensible afghanistan is w/o iraq,
mircea_popescu: numbers they have not.
mircea_popescu: stomach they have
pankkake: the USAgi?
mircea_popescu: especially through being the last.
mircea_popescu: Mats_cd03 you know, iraq 2 mayt well turn out to be the largest intl mistake the us ever made
fluffypony: "On the other hand it was expected that usagi will get confused and "loose" the wallet. In general he's so confused that he doesn't know if he's a she or she's a he."
Mats_cd03: by the end of this year
Mats_cd03: iraq is going to lose a fourth city to the fictional caliphate
mircea_popescu: youy never know if the west is lying or not
mircea_popescu: russia is emerging as a major ally of the muslims, and its strategy to energetically isolate the west is starting to take shape.
TheNewDeal: we're actually losing some time this change, making the 3rd change iffy
mircea_popescu: !up TheNewDeal
kakobrekla: ah, they buy milk from us?
mircea_popescu: i once broke into a network with the root-leaf combo
davout: kakobrekla: hahaha, actually the password is root too
mircea_popescu: decimation: the burea-tard who signed Obama's birth certificate died in a plane crash (survived the crash but "had irregular heart beat" after 60 minutes in the water) <<< that took a while.
mircea_popescu: or do you mean that ancient "rsyslogd was HUPed, type lightweight" bug they've had for ages ? did it eventually prevail upon them and so they just took logging right out of 12.04 ? :D
benkay: one of the subnets.
mircea_popescu: not going through the spine
mike_c: well there is that.
benkay: * asciilifeform doesn't own airplane, will probably have to settle for slipping in his bath with a cocked nailgun // are the 'suicides' humorously staged yet?
benkay: i almost took a job making fixtures for them before i knew how little i enjoyed shop support at big shops.
benkay: <decimation> yeah no doubt, but those people probably could be identified and treated with various medical devices // my favorite of these is made my a local shop (designed in germany, though). it sits on your nervous system and listens to your heartbeat, supplying it's own 'carrier wave' when necessary to entrain the signal that nominally keeps things beating in time.
assbot: Intraday Momentum: The First Half-Hour Return Predicts the Last Half-Hour Return by Lei Gao, Yufeng Han, Guofu Zhou :: SSRN
mircea_popescu: "The earliest types of EDA routers were "manual routers" -- the drafter clicked a mouse on the endpoint of each line segment of each net. Modern PCB design software typically provides "interactive routers" -- the drafter selects a pad and clicks a few places to give the EDA tool an idea of where to go, and the EDA tool tries to place wires as close to that path as possible without violating DRC." << my naive bias thing
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform ok im cured. this and the oxide gate problems, i can see it now.
mircea_popescu: "Particular difficulties ensue if the rules are not simple multiples of each other, and when vias must traverse between layers with different rules."
mircea_popescu: but they weren't.
mircea_popescu: suppose one day there's a panic, which takes one offline but not the other, which now dows 500 btc
pankkake: no but I mean you have to care only if they are reasonably close, which isn't the case at all now
mircea_popescu: (ie, someone who's not won loses nothing by making a spurious claim he has. this then taxes mod time, and the more complex the claim the better for the claimant)
mircea_popescu: the problem with this, of course, is that it gives a monetary incentive to make comments, at which point the result will be a flood of nonsense
mircea_popescu: im thinking a solution going forward would be "claim bets", ie, bets that resolve one way unless proof to the contrary is presented in the comments.
mircea_popescu: pankkake this sort of bet is problematic, because what the fuck's the submitter to do.
davout: prolly sthg i'll work on during the summer
kakobrekla: pankkake if you are looking for the reason i can look it up
mircea_popescu: pankkake prolly rss is the best solution
mircea_popescu: chetty "Or, the Court might ask the Obama administration for its views on pari passu"
pankkake: well, alternatively I can submit it for the third time :D
pankkake: there was just too much bets (and spam) in a short timeframe
mike_c: isn't there an rss?
mircea_popescu: or add a rule "whenever the last bet on page is not in my list of read bets, halve the checking interval"
pankkake: or you should remove the pure spam
davout: the bet can actually resolve as soon as s.mg is open for business
davout: it also has implications wrt to the bet resolution time
chetty: you know it is fascinating how much this convo sounds like this 'issue':http://www.scotusblog.com/2014/06/the-argentine-bond-saga-made-simple/#more-212867
davout: so the bet resolution could be rewritten as "yes if s.mg receives at least one satoshi in 2014"
davout: even if there are 500 BTC expenses to cover leading to a loss
davout: making the bet resolve to yes
mircea_popescu: well then it also has to report it.
davout: the way the resolution is worded can be reduced to : "bet resolves to yes if at some point during 2014, it is possible to send money to an address owned by s.mg"
mircea_popescu: what was the second part lessee
mircea_popescu: i wonder how many people reading the logs just got a legal & philosophical education.
davout: let's move on to the second part
mircea_popescu: that's the meaning of the japanese sticks story : not that you can throw out one stick
mircea_popescu: as far as bitbet is concerned, the string of english words that is the title NOW MEANS the string of english words that is the body.
mircea_popescu: yeah but you're trying to equivocate between "in any dispute between the two, the body carries" and "by changing the title you're not really changing the bet itself, much like you could change the css around it or whatever"
davout: i'm not saying there's an ambiguity in the bet resolution, it's perfectly clear if the body supersedes the title
mircea_popescu: this isn't some sort of diplomatic negotiation where you can make oral notes on your signing of the treaty
mircea_popescu: davout sure, but the way you understand things has little bearing
davout: the way i understand what you say is that the bet title is merely a convenience, it has no value with regards to resolution, so by changing the title you're not really changing the bet itself, much like you could change the css around it or whatever
mircea_popescu: mike_c fud #2 for you today, suggesting the choice of venue is upon the plaintiff! WHO EVER HEARD OF THIS
mircea_popescu: the us might have a chance of being properly administered for a day.
mircea_popescu: now if only the us congress spent their morning today reading this log instead of absolutely anything they've been doing,
mircea_popescu: the absolute isn't a conditional absolute, ie, "the bet won't changed except for parts we can get away with"
davout: granted, but following your logic, if the title doesn't matter wrt the bet resolution there's no problem changing it :-)
mircea_popescu: and as to how much sense a bet makes... who the fuck cares outside of the people betting on it.
mircea_popescu: it can't really hurt to make them consistent, before they're made. but the entire model (not just of bitbet, for that matter) rests on absolutes, and the proposal of improving this bet runs into the absolute that it's already published,
mircea_popescu: davout well let's do these one at a time huh ?
davout: and also that the bet doesn't make that much sense if to resolve to yes s.mg only has to report an incoming money transfer > 0
mircea_popescu: where not only they sleep with their horses in the bed, but also all house numbers are even
davout: well, i get how that can be clarified, all i'm saying is that it can't really hurt to make them consistent, especially when no one else has bet yet
mircea_popescu: and so for any case, the backstop is that the larger stick's length is defined as the pair's equal length
mircea_popescu: when pointed out to the manager, he explains that while they mostly try to make it the same length, being two different items obviously they can never in fact be equal length, for quantum reasons
kakobrekla: how do you sort them?
mircea_popescu: these aren't equal length.
mircea_popescu: consider perhaps a better example : we go into a japanese restaurant together, where we're given sticks to eat with.
mircea_popescu: the part where that matters.
davout: what part of "the title isn't consistent with the bet resolution condition" do you disagree with?
mircea_popescu: howso you think you did make it, is more the question.
davout: said the virgin
davout: just saying the resolution condition should be rewritten, which shouldn't be much of an issue since there are only house bets for now
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo: asciilifeform: Would you venture to guess at which post of my blog might pass the Mircea OpenBSD one in the next few months? << something with cats in it. or depending on whaty you mean by pass.
davout: by sending it money, assuming there's some sort of service rolled-out by end 2014, if not it can't really have revenue or be profitable, but in this case the bet title might as well be reworded to "s.mg open for business" or something like that
mircea_popescu: (and if the bet was worded otherwise, this would havbe been true. if you can make a hundred billion dollar donation to berkshire you can currently win the berkshire bet too)
davout: ok, so by this logic i just have to make a donation to s.mg to have it have "revenue", and the bet resolves to 'yes'
mircea_popescu: ah that. well, if all else fails the bitbet backstop is that titles are informative, bets are descriptive
davout: everyone's trying to be as cool as the openssl folks
mircea_popescu: but, like the above, not something the screentanned neckbeard can figure out on his own. (same reason)
mircea_popescu: davout indeed. the dirty little open secret here is that if you don't specify it openly, mp will specify it closedly and then beat you over the head every time you deviate
davout: "BingoBoingo: Introduce religion and then bugs become "canon" << they've been trying to do that to bitcoin for a coupla years by now." <<< which is one of the reason specifying the protocol was deemed 'too hard'
mircea_popescu: with the infantile expectation that no one might figure it out, and should someone figure it out they'd necessarily be easy to laugh down, "because lulz"
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo: Rabite's purpose is not correctness, security, or anything else understandable.... Rabit is soley for the lulz << lulz is quite understandable, if not machine-understandable. the trick most people claiming to be "only in for the lulz" do is copied directly from that ancient trick of the socialist, "in it only for the soviets" : they oft use it to cover their own (usually intellecual) laziness
asciilifeform: (variation on the famous puzzle-joke where mathematicians were given piles of sticks to sort. they puttered around with algorithms - and then janitor comes, and simply stands the sticks up on table, picking them off longest first...)
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform my intuition is that the machine couldhave evolving bias. like you know, a virgin girl trying to fuck you.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform: MB of... .bat script << the origin of batshit.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform i actually added this to the list of things to do when im old and retired.
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo: Introduce religion and then bugs become "canon" << they've been trying to do that to bitcoin for a coupla years by now.
asciilifeform: and the machine's contribution is substantial
asciilifeform: in practice, it is solvable - in the sense that man applies 'muscle grease' and board gets routed. eventually.
asciilifeform: on top of this, the tracks, vias, components - occupy space
asciilifeform: sometimes N or more paths have to be of the same length (to 0.1 mm or so) and you end with 'meanders' (look at the bottom side of stick of sdram)
asciilifeform: gotta obey various rules (minimal clearances between various kinds of objects; minimized path lengths; avoid vias like the plague in high-frequency signals; etc)
mircea_popescu: so then what in the fuck. you take an infinite lifespan to try out 10k options on a computer ?
mircea_popescu: maybe that's what i'm not getting. how many routes are there on an average board ? thousands ?
mircea_popescu: what's the problem with bruteforcing it ?
mircea_popescu: ok so now... the number of possible connections is finite.
asciilifeform: seems to me there should be good autoruters. why not << 'travelling salesman problem'
mircea_popescu: (yet another fundamentally wrong design decision that sits at the core of the us' failure, and can't be fixed)
asciilifeform: picture the folks who ride 50km on bicycle in each direction every day
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform the latter part. bycicling
asciilifeform: mircea_popescu: gentoo is a source-only distro, where you get to twiddle compiler flags, wait a week for newly-provisioned machine to compile the universe, and - most annoyingly - suffer in the innermost circle of 'dependency hell' where you have to tear up the entire world to build xxxx
mircea_popescu: ok, here's another thing. asciilifeform: there are not (and probably cannot be) 'good' autorouter, but there are plenty of terrible ones. << intuitively it seems to me there should be good autoruters. why not ?
mircea_popescu: this has fundamental causes in the original training of the people involved with the code, which is why you don't want to learn to computer on bullshit fashionable languages.
mircea_popescu: dub: ff crashed because ff << more specifically, because mozilla co STILL can't make a half decent garbage collector, so they constantly leak memory. yes, even version 69 or w/e they're up to by now.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform: gentoo is arguably a 'bad life decision' - like the folks who insist on bicycle for commuting << im interested to hear more of the latter part, do tell ?
mircea_popescu: basically the 400bn mkt cap company is in its entirety a hundred people trying to maintain a web directory, and we're back to the early 90s over here.
mircea_popescu: someone should put the time into researching the matter, it seems clear to me by now google is entirely manual, they have no algo left at all.
mircea_popescu: nevertheless, it DOES pop a right panel with a summary of mossberg's wikipedia page.
mircea_popescu: and speaking of mossberg : a google on re/code does NOT pop up the wikipedia page on the top 10 results, like for absolutely any other word with a wikipedia entry.
mircea_popescu: benkay the totality of russian personnel residing on foreign soil would be the residentura. the subset doing interesting stuff out of them (such as, not the ambassador's personal homebred imported cocksucker - in most places you have to import women as they don't grow locally babes tall enough, blonde enough, fair skinned enough, lithe enough etc etc etc) would be the... agentura.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform: BingoBoingo: there was talk a few yrs ago (russian) regarding a mesh net built on modern radio hardware in mexican mountains. supposedly destroyed (via agenture methods, no fancy tech) << built by the mexican mafia, was it.
assbot: The Argentine bond saga, made simple : SCOTUSblog
dub: davout: handome coke sniper is the best
gribble: The operation succeeded.
pankkake: no bitbet either
dub IPO's the Personal Faraday Cage
dub: one of our american brothers should dump one
dub: I'd like to know whats on the chip
chetty: now heres one to feed the fear: http://witscience.org/analysis-of-radio-frequency-identification-rfid-chip-prevalence-in-3-discrete-united-states-populations/
chetty: well he didn't go to HS there, but if he did that might explain a lot
chetty: pankkake, to be fair Obama hasn't been around long enough to ruin the HS kids
Mats_cd03: they meant to do it, i promise
chetty: Its hard to deny just how poorly Chicagos public schools are performing when it hits you in the face. Such is the case with Paul Robeson High Schools 2014 prom theme: This is Are Story.
pankkake: "If the most optimistic predictions for am's performance come true, I will be able to cover my losses from virtually every other garbage scheme I bought into, plus some." bitcointalk, still looking at a bailout
gribble: The operation succeeded.
davout: ;;later tell mircea_popescu liked the hayek commentary a lot!
decimation: for those innocent of the subject, here's a video that gives a taste of the Chinese dominance of the electronics market: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBtRJc-z05k
dub: not happneing, they have acknowledged a problem
assbot: Why is there Anti-Intellectualism?
mircea_popescu: Africans never discovered nearby islands like the Cape Verde archipelago.
decimation: asciilifeform, that's a brilliant essay, thanks for the link.
mircea_popescu: too many kids running around, raising kids of their own
asciilifeform: '...The tragedy of our society is not that so many people outgrow their childlike curiosity, but that so few do. The adult equivalent of childlike curiosity is channel surfing and the ten-second sound bite.'
assbot: Why is there Anti-Intellectualism?
asciilifeform: mr mold sometimes reminds me of a kid, given a chess set but with no notion of the game, treating the pieces as a curious kind of marble / blunt or pointed weapon.
asciilifeform: some american or other wrote about 'femtoeconomics' - keeping order in your own brain, i think it was
BingoBoingo: There are geographic anamalies that break democracies and republics, the premier example of which is Illinois.
mircea_popescu: which is notreally distinct from the nature of sovereignity.
mircea_popescu: among people who comprehend the nature of freedom, so to speak.
mircea_popescu: the irony being that democracy works fine... here.
asciilifeform: 'you go to war with the enemy you had, not the enemy you wish you had' - or how'd that go.
asciilifeform: when we make monkey noises at moldbug, have to remember, the man perhaps should not be held responsible for his audience
decimation: but there is no doubt that it is ancient complaint
BingoBoingo actually had a grad class that spent a few weeks on the Leary papers.
decimation: yeah that's a good point. I guess the reason I "credit" him is because he was the one who brought me out of my ignorance on the subject
asciilifeform: somehow he gets credited with it by the reddit folks, sorta like tim leary getting credit for lsd
asciilifeform: decimation: the subject of democracy as a successful parasite on wealthy nations was beaten to death by countless people.
asciilifeform: 'All cannot play the king, and a host of leaders is no wise thing. Let us have but the one leader, the one true king...' - homer's iliad, part ii
decimation: yeah, when you think clearly about the nature of soveriegnty, it becomes obvious
asciilifeform: decimation: carlyle, evola, ..., ..., limonov, moldy... if one were to spit out all the folks who complained about kinglessness, freenode will boot you for flooding
decimation: most of the west would be unable to pass the test of being willing to happily die for the wishes of a particular man or set of men
decimation: mircea_popescu - your intro to the Hayek post calls to mind Mr. Moldbug's point about "chronic kinglessness"
BingoBoingo: I know I've played chess here a few times. In the interim have batter cess players found their way here?
mircea_popescu: pankkake: French hair salons love word plays in their names. it's ridiculous << the lumbar yard!
mircea_popescu: !up drawingthesun
mircea_popescu: drawingthesun: I shudder to think what people have said about ActiveMining here << lol fluffypony who's she ?
asciilifeform: cue the 'we live in submarine' song
mircea_popescu: well, the dorks that made bitcoin* stuff, at any rate.
mircea_popescu: jurov: bitcoin is registered trademark nao << always has been. by... mtgox. bcause... "it;'s better someone with bitcoin's interests at heart have the tm than someone random"
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla: cant they make it any longer << lmao
BingoBoingo: My favorite part of C machines is their capacity for deception.
asciilifeform: there, and occasionally at home
mircea_popescu: there's this very active, latin approach to leadership that i object to.
mircea_popescu: fucking bullshit, collectivists arguing with each other as to the proper way to the gallows, pretending like it's a world.
BingoBoingo: Through this mess of VM's I'll also say the portale's original Mobo is dead. Fuck you '12 BIOS update.
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BingoBoingo: Za mean nothing now that South africa has the abreviation. Where did the great Rhodesia go???
mircea_popescu: davout: do i read this one correctly or is euronext valued somewhere around a fifth of whatsapp << if you believe the numbers, yes.
BingoBoingo: Also... I'm glad I never turn the Ultra 5 off
penguirker: New blog post: http://trilema.com/2014/on-the-superiority-of-monarchy-or-adnotations-to-why-the-worst-get-on-top/
BingoBoingo: Makes me hope there is NEVER a new Rhodesia.
BingoBoingo: Also, seriously, nothing was logging system faults. I share some blame for not ensuring this, but... Who the fuck did I expect to do this.
mircea_popescu: mike_c: i do :) i should clean up some of my scripts and publish them sometime.. << prolly.
BingoBoingo: Because in dutch "nig" and "ignorant" resolve to the same root word.
assbot: On The Superiority of Monarchy (or, adnotations to Why the Worst Get on Top) pe Trilema - Un blog de Mircea Popescu.
mircea_popescu: http://trilema.com/2014/on-the-superiority-of-monarchy-or-adnotations-to-why-the-worst-get-on-top/ <<
assbot: It's not everyday you get a letter from the NSA. :-) /hashtag/FOIA?src=hash http://t.co/nmXYFpF8CS
BingoBoingo: justusranvier: Name a single person other people would knwo who inheres the property of being innocent...
assbot: I'm a big Matt Carpenter fan. But, for Pete's sake, swing the bat! /hashtag/stlcards?src=hash
asciilifeform doesn't get the reference - or really want to
BingoBoingo: This... must really suck for them...
BingoBoingo: Oh, someone else is using the nick Tater Totz
BingoBoingo: asciilifeform: I've been dping that since the not at all secret saturday reveal. I am disappoint
asciilifeform: i often wonder how many people go to bed every night, with not one nailgun wound, disappointed at their insignificance
BingoBoingo: Most people can survive the regime on civilized arrangements.
BingoBoingo: I seriously wonder what will happen now at the late August court date since... I am not an idiot and the acting DA should not be an idiot and is not inocent.
BingoBoingo: Then again people with ideas are idiots.
BingoBoingo: The thing is I would have had no idea until I was accidentallied the pharmacy school's microphone slave.
asciilifeform: (conveniently given the 'opposite' heart rate med shortly before he was to testify)
asciilifeform: BingoBoingo: see also the death of slobodan m.