mircea_popescu: anyway, this bitchfest of mine has yielded quite actionable advice from the chan that's +IQ
mircea_popescu: you bring a motherfucking VERY GOOD POINT don't you,.
[]bot: Bet created: "South Korea will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/937/
mircea_popescu: mike_c provided you own the % of total world capital that you wish your % of the pool to be
mircea_popescu: you wish to have 1% of the pot, you can make sure you do no matter what happens
[]bot: Bet created: "Russia will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/936/
mircea_popescu: AND the beauty of parimutuel is that you can always adjust your exposure to a pot %
[]bot: Bet created: "Algeria will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/935/
mircea_popescu: to explain this to people, who otherwise would be betting
mircea_popescu: then you want to push the other way ? bet a little more on mp. so its now 58k to 37k
los_pantalones: ah, well, then i am absolutely wrong
[]bot: Bet created: "USA will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/934/
los_pantalones: looking at bosnia will advance to group stage, the betting closes 23-06-2014, is that after the last potential match
[]bot: Bet created: "Ghana will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/933/
[]bot: Bet created: "Portugal will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/932/
[]bot: Bet created: "Germany will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/931/
mircea_popescu: at some point after the event/
los_pantalones: when do the sports bets close?
los_pantalones: but still retains the fixed bet part
los_pantalones: i hate the sportsbook type trading
los_pantalones: there is vol in the expectation of the outcome of the event during the event, the price moves
los_pantalones: big halftime lead, line moves too far to the edge
los_pantalones: there is constant volume
los_pantalones: i come back in the second round, look better
los_pantalones: back in the day
mircea_popescu: in exchange for which they don't mind -50% EV
mircea_popescu: mike_c the other way to formulate this is, sports bettors are not motivated by the money. they expect specific sorts of services provided
[]bot: Bet created: "Nigeria will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/930/
los_pantalones: and live betting during the event
los_pantalones: i can say the bitbet contracts don't really do it for me
[]bot: Bet created: "Iran will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/929/
[]bot: Bet created: "Bosnia and Herzegovina will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/928/
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla do me a favour, calculat ethe sum pool over the sports bets past 365 days
[]bot: Bet created: "Argentina will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/927/
mircea_popescu: the way I figure it, if the wc set fails to attract 500 btc total pool, we'll just ditch sports as a category and mostly reject all proposed sports bet without zeroconf
kakobrekla: but it helps to keep that part separated from the good part
[]bot: Bet created: "Honduras will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/926/
[]bot: Bet created: "France will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/925/
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla definitely sports don't merit their own category im thinking.
[]bot: Bet created: "Ecuador will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/924/
mircea_popescu: the halep french open one
mircea_popescu: well guess what! in the past year there's exactly one sports bet that went over 5. you know which ?
mike_c: well, that's not quite true. you do keep one of the house bets.
[]bot: Bet created: "Switzerland will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/923/
assbot: BitBet - An Eastern Conference team will win the NBA Finals :: 0.97 B (43%) on Yes, 1.28 B (57%) on No | closed 1 week 5 days ago
diametric: i can't wait for the berkshire bet to resolve.
assbot: BitBet - A golfer from USA will win the 2014 Masters :: 0.06 B (47%) on Yes, 0.07 B (53%) on No | closed 2 months 2 days ago
mircea_popescu: basically this is the best proof bitcoin is populated by nerds
assbot: BitBet - Billy Hamilton Rookie of the Year :: 0.08 B (45%) on Yes, 0.09 B (55%) on No | closing in 4 months 3 weeks | weight: 96`230 (100`000 to 1)
[]bot: Bet created: "Italy will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/922/
mircea_popescu: except back then it actually worked
benkay: <mike_c> sport bets do fine on bitbet (see nba finals bets). soccer on the other hand.. // implying footie's not a sport?
[]bot: Bet created: "Costa Rica will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/921/
[]bot: Bet created: "Uruguay will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/920/
mircea_popescu: at an average sale of ~60, you do the math.
mircea_popescu: maybe in the meanwhile it died, i dunno. probable, judging by the fact that everyone i used to know back then is off the grid.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform i don't even know what the state of the industry is anymore. 20 years ago you had the legitimate folk and then the dumb noobs pretending, much like in bitcoin
[]bot: Bet created: "Cote d'Ivoire will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/919/
[]bot: Bet created: "Japan will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/918/
[]bot: Bet created: "Greece will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/917/
nubbins`: so the whole thing is a bit rose-colored
[]bot: Bet created: "Colombia will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/916/
[]bot: Bet created: "Netherlands will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/915/
[]bot: Bet created: "Australia will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/914/
[]bot: Bet created: "Chile will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/913/
[]bot: Bet created: "Spain will advance from the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/912/
mike_c: amazingly, after getting drilled in the ribs, one of the frenchies did not immediately give up but played through!
[]bot: Bet created: "Cameroon will advance form the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/911/
mike_c: there's a couple frenchies winning too.
mike_c: an awesome argentine basketball player currently winning the nba finals.
[]bot: Bet created: "Mexico will advance form the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/910/
mircea_popescu: obviously also a great time to affliate bitbet, but then again, i couldn't even find an affiliate manager at all
mike_c: you argentines should be watching manu ginobli beat the crap out of lebron.
[]bot: Bet created: "Croatia will advance form the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/909/
[]bot: Bet created: "Brazil will advance form the 2014 World Cup group stage" http://bitbet.us/bet/908/
mircea_popescu: so logically a) if you wonder later why your zeroconf sports bet got rejected by mods, the reason ios probably here and b) if you want to see sport bets on bitbet, this is a bad time to sit and watch and a great time to get involved.
mircea_popescu: but, let me point out, this is pretty horrible business for bitbet, per se. and obviously, i'll be using this data to inform further decisions on what to accept.
mircea_popescu: obviously mods wanted to consult. now, in the spirit of being in argentina and these people loving the wc, i ok'd the whole bulk
mircea_popescu: Ok so here's a story : BitBet curently has 19 World Cup bets open. The average bet on these is .175 (excluding house and mpif), like so .79, .44, 0, .21, .60, .10, .54, .03, 0, 0, .01, 0, .05, .28, .01, .04, 0, .11, .11. Now, on top of these, there's no less than 30 bets pending approval on WC, pretty much "X country will advance from groups".
asciilifeform: 'I realized that Ive never touched a fax machine beforethat its as abstract, for me, as the laser guns...' << clearly never dealt with usg. fax is mandatory to this day!
gribble: unbalanced was last seen in #bitcoin-assets 26 weeks, 0 days, 2 hours, 21 minutes, and 53 seconds ago: <unbalanced> Little Bitcoin icon on the package and everything
mircea_popescu: why without the wine and spice ?
Apocalyptic: mircea_popescu, the salmon looks really delicious, so far I knew how to cook a similar dish, without the wine and spice though
gribble: Currently authenticated from hostmask bigtip!~bigtip@valley-239-134.csicable.net . User bigtip, rated since Mon Apr 1 18:04:09 2013. Cumulative rating 121, from 69 total ratings. Received ratings: 69 positive, 0 negative. Sent ratings: 72 positive, 5 negative. Details: http://b-otc.com/vrd?nick=bigtip
gribble: Currently authenticated from hostmask bigtip!~bigtip@valley-239-134.csicable.net. Trust relationship from user assbot to user bigtip: Level 1: 0, Level 2: 1 via 1 connections. Graph: http://b-otc.com/stg?source=assbot&dest=bigtip | WoT data: http://b-otc.com/vrd?nick=bigtip | Rated since: Mon Apr 1 18:04:09 2013
mike_c: i like how the query parameters are order-dependent :D
benkay: i like this part of the logs where i can ignore the derping about some idiot trying to scam davout
benkay: if it gets you in a barrel and over the falls sign me up
assbot: Solar Flares Disrupt Communications on Earth, Could Send Shockwave on Friday the 13th - ABC News
chetty: http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2014/06/solar-flares-disrupt-communications-on-earth-could-send-shockwave-on-friday-the-13th/
mircea_popescu: that is the fucking point of currency and more generally life on earth. so that lazier kids get left behind in footbal practice, and that dumber kids get left behind dating
assbot: kinoshitajona comments on [Serious] I couldn't answer this question when discussing Bitcoin with my Dad: Isn't it sometimes beneficial to allow governments to stabilise their currency if there is uncontrollable inflation/deflation due to unavoidable events? Wouldn't a global currency cause poorer countries to be left behind?
mike_c: it's more that rss is for updates. so you have entry for pending, then later an entry for approved/rejected?
kakobrekla: if i would be the author if it, id kill myself.
kakobrekla: id rather to json tbh
kakobrekla: re propositions and rss, do you ppl want pending and approved/rejected sources or just the latter
moiety: i do but there's a lot of time left
Apocalyptic: kako is the css wizard
mircea_popescu: actually someone should make a lolpost about "break the age glass ceiling! women should be killed off by the government so that on average they live as long as men!!11"
moiety: honestly i wish id had the logs when i had no internet lol have you all settled in now then mircea_popescu?
mircea_popescu: pretty great. you have the logs of all time to go through now :D
mircea_popescu: lol so i moved across the ocean faster than you did across town ?
mircea_popescu: taking the sex weeks literally ?
mircea_popescu: what was their round anyway ? i forget
mircea_popescu: fluffypony they finally figured out that 60% return rate isn't really such a good number ?
ThickAsThieves: btcjam is spamming the web this week
assbot: How Bitcoin Empowers the First Global Peer-to-Peer Lender BTCJam
mike_c: spoken like a man who has been creamed in the past betting against difficulty
mircea_popescu: i mean any half-literate scammer in sierra-leone can get a good flamewar raging for 500 pages in two weeks, the self appointed cream of teh internets slash intellectual core of progressivism can't even get to 12 ?!
mircea_popescu: by now it's sunk into the depths of pathetic : trying to get a thread going, which gets 6 pages out of which 2/3 is their kindling
mircea_popescu: then it was "o the press in its quest for bullshit is betraying the holy canon of socialism"
mircea_popescu: but yeah, originally it was all "o, how the bitcoiners don't understand basic socialism as canon accepted by everyone"
mircea_popescu: well because they're pretty irrelevant by now, so you wouldn't normally know.
mircea_popescu: I bought several at $1.000, many others at $550, but at the end, I am a looser in term of financial results.
mircea_popescu: "I got swept up in the mania last November and dared to invest my life saving into purchasing 1 bitcoin, just as it was near peak. That turned out to be a terrible purchase for me"
mircea_popescu: certainly better than trying to hijack bitcoin's for the purpose of communication.
fluffypony: he mods the French sub-forum, it's not exactly a position of power
pankkake: my experience of the forum is that there is no shortage of high profile delusional scammers, that of course don't think themselves as such
mircea_popescu: I don't understand why phinnaeus would pay 400BTC for 50K$, but I can write the agreement with him and make the deal : Davout will send to trusted escrow 50K$ (in dollard or BTC) Phinnaeus will send to escrow 400 BTC when escrow have both, he will send me 400 BTC and send Phinnaeus is 50K$. I will then send 300 BTC to Davout. We will all waive the right to terminate this agreement and to all actions regarding the insta
mircea_popescu: maybe if the guy shows up
gribble: I currently have notes waiting for agentx24, anarkitty, bakinat, bcb, bitcoingirl, cevidad, frankenmint, Immukization, jtrunerbtc, kyledrake, moiety, MurphyLawn, nubbins, nubbins`, nubbins`i, Phinnaeus, RainMan28, ryepdx, starsoccer9, ThickasTheives, and vexual.
davout: gotta get off, i'll be back later tonight if someone wants to discuss this further
mircea_popescu: what do they care.
fluffypony: once the body of evidence is presented his lawyer would (one hopes) be able to explain things to him
mircea_popescu: there doesn't seem to be much room for any sort of mediation
mircea_popescu: davout so make a single post in that thread, containing paymium's service address, a statement that you've tried to the best of your ability to identify his claims but didn'
fluffypony: the constant stream of new threads doesn't play into his favour
fluffypony: mircea_popescu: yeah I'm talking purely about the way he's treating this particular issue, not in general
mircea_popescu: fluffypony generally i kinda like phinn, he's very diligent, quite passionate and an off the path sort of thinker
davout: also, for the sake of keeping a public record, the script i used to explore the blockchain in order to try and find his deposit address, none of the two i was looking for appeared
mircea_popescu: so basically what he';s trying to do here is send davout to the forum collections agency ?
fluffypony: the whole arrangement is confusing as hell
mircea_popescu: fluffypony so then why any need for an escrow?
davout: the guy is confused, my only hope is that he lawyers up, so that someone can finally talk some sense into him
mircea_popescu: so did he fund the bounty or not ?
mircea_popescu: wait so the bounty is out of lol wtf how does this work
mircea_popescu: have put into this fiasco, not to mention the stress."
mircea_popescu: "Ideally, I prefer to have the entire 1,132 BTC, sans the 400 BTC bounty amount, paid in full to me, but knowing that sometimes arbitration takes place, I'm willing to settle for a minimal amount, with anybody acting as liaison to broker their reward up to 100% of what I may finally recognize. The minimum I'm welling to settle for is $50K USD via BTC or fiat to compensate for my initial investment and the mega hours I
davout: the guy is very confused
davout: he's imagining there is a liquidator
mircea_popescu: but anyway davout so why is he claiming you won't release the liquidator;'s name ?
davout: mircea_popescu fluffypony he can go ask jgarzik, the guy paid me 5678 BTC back in the day, also i got into bitcoin at such a time that i mined some blocks on a goddamn CPU
davout: because the guy is pretty specific, 1000 BTC and 132 BTC, sent in december 2012 to an instawallet address
davout: fluffypony: not the received total in a timeframe actually, the received total, and then i checked manually the actual deposits against these addresses
fluffypony: mircea_popescu: davout's talking about searching for the total received for each address in a timeframe
fluffypony: the URLs could be complete bullshit
davout: ended up with around ~100k addresses to check, none of them received the amounts he mentions in the timeframe he mentions
fluffypony: every thread that's popped up that I've read has him claiming those two Instawallet URLs (plus a third that had 0.825 BTC or something that he disregards), but no further evidence
davout: once i had a massive collection of addresses i checked for an address whose received totals matched the balances he claimed, to no avail
mircea_popescu: davout so he does not make a specific claim to either address or transaction, he makes a specific claim as to balance and to url which can't be verified, is the thing ?
fluffypony: mircea_popescu: sure, BUT if he EVER sent money from Instawallet to someone (say as payment for something) and message'd or email'd them the transaction ID he'd have that, he'd have SOMETHING that could be used
davout: so i went there and used tracked all the addresses linked in any way to the unique IW cold storage address
assbot: Vitalik Buterin reveals Ethereum at Bitcoin Miami 2014 - YouTube
davout: well that's kind of what i figured, and i also figured he'd be too dumb to explore the blockchain by himself
davout: the idea being that i could have checked against backups of bitcoind wallets as well with such an information
davout: i asked him "o hey, maybe it could help me if you gave me the deposit addresses"
fluffypony: mircea_popescu: he gets asked to prove he deposited 1100+ BTC into Instawallet, providing a transaction ID or a signed BTC addy that sent it or ANYTHING, and he just ignores those requests or talks around them
davout: that's what the backups convey
mircea_popescu: so as best you can determine, there's a month+ interval where according to phinn he had 1k+ btc, but according to your db he had not ?
davout: i don't really recall from the top of my head
pankkake: Karpeles, those Dealco guys out of HK, now these scammers
davout: one of the first things i thought of
mircea_popescu: what date was the oldest you checked roughly ?
mircea_popescu: http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--wOjCTy9_--/strfxwexmbgnjk7b4nus.jpg now vs then : http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--utwlJ8_1--/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/ihl9qhl9yy47q1axnuiv.jpg
Apocalyptic: "BTW, I would not rule out the possiblity that Boussac himself is a victim of davout to some extent" who's Boussac again ?
davout: some people fell for the "oh hey, here is our tor hidden service for instawallet, deposit bitches"
davout: for two of the urls
mircea_popescu: in other news, "Following massive rainfalls in Misiones, Argentina, and Santa Catarina and Paraná, Brazil, the famous Iguazú Falls are now overflowing, carrying 46,300 cubic meters per second33 times the usual water flow rate."
mircea_popescu: well let's see. instawallet had a system whereby ownership is proven by url. the guy had 3 urls. what was not associated with what ?
davout: mircea_popescu: what specific part of the story are you curious about ?
mircea_popescu: blackwhite right. so meanwhile the channel is +m, to get voice you have to pm assbot !up which only works if you're trusted to any degree by someone assbot trusts.
mircea_popescu: itor(s) because there wasn't one (or more, according to Boussac), in spite of them saying they couldn't because of some fuckin' idiotic NDA clause." ?
mircea_popescu: davout what's the backstory on "At the onset of the InstaWallet fiasco, all three URLs didn't have a bitcoin wallet associated with the generated pages. It wasn't till after I brought it to Boussac's attention that the lesser bitcoin-containing wallet was well-document that it mysterious had the associated wallet address visible on the URL generated site. This is why they refuse to release the name of the forensics aud
mircea_popescu: blackwhite the reason you can't say anything is that you';re not in assbot's l2 wot. have you been reading the logs or just idling idly ?
gribble: WARNING: Currently not authenticated. Trust relationship from user assbot to user blackwhite: Level 1: 0, Level 2: 0 via 0 connections. Graph: http://b-otc.com/stg?source=assbot&dest=blackwhite | WoT data: http://b-otc.com/vrd?nick=blackwhite | Rated since: never
mircea_popescu: decimation: waiting around and doing nothing while you hope a magic "process" or "committee" or "standarization" will do your job constitutes at least 50% of western officeworker employment << the best part is that this used to actually work, a century or so ago.
Apocalyptic: davout, did he post that on the forum ?
mircea_popescu: i feel so left out. who's sandokan ? other than some bollywood action star from the 80s
dub: ah, I was teetering that way but I err on the side of retard
mircea_popescu: hai there persons.
davout: kinda fun going into the office and have everyone be like "o hai, you have a 400 btc contract on your head" :D
starsoccer: you send him 50k USD then we split 400btc so you get 200btc and i get 200btc
davout: which boils down even further ti "donate 400 BTC to me"
gribble: Currently authenticated from hostmask starsoccer!~starsocce@207.12.89.33. Trust relationship from user assbot to user starsoccer: Level 1: 0, Level 2: 2 via 2 connections. Graph: http://b-otc.com/stg?source=assbot&dest=starsoccer | WoT data: http://b-otc.com/vrd?nick=starsoccer | Rated since: Sat May 12 23:07:51 2012
dub: and one of them posting 400btc for your head
ThickAsThieves: thank you for the present
kakobrekla: bringing you past from the future.
ThickAsThieves: <+kakobrekla> http://www.newsweek.com/2014/06/20/tunnel-vision-254202.html /// do you come from the future?
gribble: The operation succeeded.
Namworld: Dafuq youtube... giving me before my video a 1 hour ad video about Bitcoin, "Ride the Great Coming Wave"... Such a scammy ad.
diana_coman: are the logs of this channel available as a dump (I know about http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/ but it seems to give them only day by day, while I wanted to play around with a bigger sample)
gribble: WARNING: Currently not authenticated. Trust relationship from user assbot to user diana_coman: Level 1: 0, Level 2: 1 via 1 connections. Graph: http://b-otc.com/stg?source=assbot&dest=diana_coman | WoT data: http://b-otc.com/vrd?nick=diana_coman | Rated since: Tue Mar 26 18:56:33 2013
decimation: well, anyone with a basic understanding of human nature will realize that humans attempt to shirk responsibility if they think they can get away with it
decimation: "Trying to supplant our nature with technology is a losing prospect that gets it completely backwards." << what's amusing is that much of the ruling ideology of the USG is exactly this
assbot: Bitcoin Is Great, But It Won’t Fix Our Monkey Brains | The mlaut
decimation: here's the link for the google-poor http://theumlaut.com/2014/06/10/bitcoin-is-great-but-it-wont-fix-our-monkey-brains/
Vexual: is THAT the shit triangle?
assbot: Introducing: The Coinion, Bitcoin's Finest News Source! Onion-clone for Bitcoin
BingoBoingo: The coinion kids.
BingoBoingo: You'd think the incentive your PR dropped for them on the forum would have got them reaching for 300 in a year
assbot: The Coinion | Bitcoin's Finest News Source
penguirker: New blog post: http://www.thedrinkingrecord.com/2014/06/11/longshots-in-three-concise-points/
gribble: You rated user princessnell on Sun May 11 18:26:16 2014, with a rating of 1, and supplied these additional notes: procurer for the #bitcoin-assets dungeon..
gribble: WARNING: Currently not authenticated. Trust relationship from user mircea_popescu to user princessnell: Level 1: 1, Level 2: 1 via 1 connections. Graph: http://b-otc.com/stg?source=mircea_popescu&dest=princessnell | WoT data: http://b-otc.com/vrd?nick=princessnell | Rated since: Thu May 8 16:20:29 2014
mircea_popescu: ers obviate the need for trust in the money changers, but humans are still trust-seeking and Bitcoin is still money and money is still trust. In a post-Bitcoin world, trust will become more important than ever."
mircea_popescu: "The problem here is not the diagnosis, which I share, nor the proposed solutions, which are proper and potent to repel the growing democratic sickness that chokes human creation. Bitcoin provides us a critical escape from forced trust in unaccountable monopolies. However, trust in transactions, per se, should not be the object of ire and in fact cannot be if we want to participate in beneficial ways. Distributed ledg
mircea_popescu: this, since the 80s.
mircea_popescu: <Mats_cd03> and how is it becoming less resilient << no comms network is as resilient as the internet
asciilifeform: i've more battery in here than in the cabinets. sad.
dub: you're not wired back to a full CO anymore and the cabinet has no better battery than a cell tower
asciilifeform: the old pots lines are gone where i live.