ThickAsThieves: but the human race never fails to find new ways to surprise and disappoint
asciilifeform: ThickAsThieves: taleb, as i understand, bet on us collapse, raked in the dough.
mircea_popescu: Thanks everyone for the incredible amount of support on this project! I hope we're just getting started."
ThickAsThieves: he paints himself as disliked by his peers, is that the case?
ThickAsThieves: i'm totally ignorant of taleb other than gaining a familiarity of his name from you guys over the months
asciilifeform: doesn't much matter, he already 'did the right thing'
asciilifeform: quite true, not the same. which is why it's a crying shame gauss, etc. didn't get to print their notebooks while at their best
mircea_popescu: i dare say the taleb notes and the gangue of great minds found at their burial are not the same
asciilifeform: ^ earlier discussion of items like the taleb notes
mircea_popescu: and this is perhaps the first time i used "dude" in its proper fucking sense in this chan. go me.
mircea_popescu: davout some dudes, tried to traverse the utah salt marshes, died.
mircea_popescu: whereas an uncombed, out of bed appearance like those notes is actually better according to the readers
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform yeah this is an interesting point. people believe [because they're trained in school to believe and they never examine it ?] that the "proper" form is and they're at their best in book form
ThickAsThieves: it puts into words concepts ive always kinda had theories about
ThickAsThieves: and to whomever recommended Antifragile, it was exactly the next book I was looking for, great so far
mircea_popescu: <davout> mircea_popescu: well, if you count $10k/month/person that's like 3.6mn/year in salary, that's not *that* much compared to what they raised, and they haven't been 30 for that long o a time i'd assume << you know the donner party also wasn't as large before as it was at the point it starved to death.
mircea_popescu: the owner is already swallowing random dusts from strangers.
ThickAsThieves: ascii, i finished anathem, thanks
asciilifeform: mircea_popescu: re: ad-hoc ir spectrometer discussion: no dice. not that you can't train, e.g. neural net to distinguish mdma from shoe polish - you can. but the objective of identifying synthesis byproducts (basement lab folks rarely bother with recrystallization) - this one takes actual brains.
bloctoc: if bitpay takes 3 days to receive the fiat. That's a loan essentially in BTC to be repaid in USD. so, they're shorting btc and will always be shorting the bigger they get.
dub: she seemed retarded in the 'election' interview
ThickAsThieves: she did seem to be a decent little worker bee for btcf at the conference
davout: mircea_popescu: well, if you count $10k/month/person that's like 3.6mn/year in salary, that's not *that* much compared to what they raised, and they haven't been 30 for that long o a time i'd assume
BingoBoingo: Another problem with Bitpay is they have a habit of hiring "names" http://www.coindesk.com/elizabeth-ploshay-joins-bitpay/
ThickAsThieves scrapes asciilifeform from the ground.
kakobrekla: wheres the easiest to check btc price for june 2012
mircea_popescu: from what i hear this 30mn bought them a lease on life worth about a year.
davout: they must be burning quite some cash
davout: just had a look at their "team" page
mircea_popescu: once they start laying down rail track and optic fiber...
mircea_popescu: davout in theory.
davout: aren't there legitimate cases where companies need to raise repeatedly because their current positive cash-flow is not sufficient to address the market as it could be addressed?
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: But they refuse to acknowledge that as well
mircea_popescu: be sure to take the time to type
TheNewDeal: this is going horrible. Just tossed some chicken on the stove and now I have to take a shit. Running around the kitchen trying to hold everything in before I can flip
mike_c: because they keep taking investments. you don't sell pieces of your company for money you don't need.
davout: the question i'm asking is "how do you know?"
BingoBoingo: First they call MP a pornographer, then they call him a scammer, later the ignore him... Next they call MP a witch?
mircea_popescu: this we know they're not doing.
mircea_popescu: the best construction for btc value conservation is if their management is good enough to copy s.mg, and basically they just take the investment turn it to btc and wait
mike_c: davout: they are spending more than they make. this is why they need investment. be it for growth, does not matter. they are still spending more then they make.
mircea_popescu: mike_c they're rare.
mircea_popescu: for that matter, in no acquihire do the investors see a dime
mike_c: davout: point is they aren't cash-flow positive, so they can't be socking away a pile of btc.
mircea_popescu: davout yes, the neobee connection
mircea_popescu: i know they keep derping about how merchants went from 4k to 40k, but... w/e
davout: well maybe the reason for taking investment is not that they're unprofitable, but that they need it to grow faster, am i missing something obvious to discrimnate between those two?
mircea_popescu: i don't even recall, did they publish their total processed / gross fees for q1 ? 2013 ? anything ?
mircea_popescu: mike_c sure. hence the slow motion.
mike_c: fwiw, they seem to have better management than neobee
mircea_popescu: they're just neobee in slow motion basically.
mircea_popescu: obviously they're not cash-positive if they need 30mn now on top of the 10mn before and the 2.8mn before that or w/e it was.
mircea_popescu: only to the most naive of perspectives.
davout: for all you know they might be keeping fees in btc, no?
mircea_popescu: i'm not incentivised to sell it too low, i don't need the liquidity.
mircea_popescu: davout right as in what you say is true but it doesn't have much to do with the previous
davout: the way i was understanding it was "investing in potato crops is betting against btc appreciation" or at least depreciation of btc relative to potato crops
mircea_popescu: davout i know. that's kinda how the mpex synthetics ruin the life of these people : they make understanding what's going on so much easier.
mircea_popescu: davout yes, because they're fuckwitted leeches and instead of helping grow btc they just try to leech it for fiat profit.
davout: i'm either understanding this wrong, or parsing it wrong
mircea_popescu: davout the same way you would by investing in bitpay.
mike_c: well they can now.
mircea_popescu: instead of buying btc for their 30mn.
davout: buying it would be at the same time betting on bitpay's success and against btc appreciation
penguirker: New blog post: http://trilema.com/2014/introducing-the-d-series/
mike_c: after all the nice things i said about frenchies today.
mircea_popescu: or borrow from someone who holds either
mike_c: i can't create either one
mike_c: can't sell either
mike_c: but i guess they are both short BTC
mircea_popescu: mike_c when you say backup guess, do you mean you had two human language strings hash to the same md5 ?
mircea_popescu: there goes...
mircea_popescu: i think we're seriously the most charitable people in bitcoin :D
mircea_popescu: o shit i totally forgot about the bet
mike_c: hopefully that's the right address and not some haxor
mircea_popescu: good thing he hosted it on pastebin with like the minimal features and all, i know of no server setups even dedicated that could have served 533 people since april.
mircea_popescu: leaving aside the part where his "opinions" turn out to be wrong, "hits:533"
mircea_popescu: uh i mean TheNewDeal
mircea_popescu: fluffypony he's also not mentioning the part where bitfinex is a scam ran by the marginally retarded on stolen code.
mircea_popescu: not happening, that sort of thing. they come and line up when i say
davout: TheNewDeal: yeah, that was amazing
TheNewDeal: , market, stop, trailing stop, fill or kill; nor about the OCO orders or hidden orders. Bitfinex is truly way ahead of the curve.
TheNewDeal: I've not talked about Bitfinex since this isn't a sales pitch for them. I've not talked about how they offer leveraged margin trade as well as normal exchange. Nor have I talked about the p2p lending platform where people who don't want to trade can earn swap interest on USD or BTC balance. I've also not mentioned the 5 order types they have: limit
assbot: Introducing the D. series pe Trilema - Un blog de Mircea Popescu.
kakobrekla: takes them a long time to do 1+1
pankkake: working there = worst than a nuclear plant
pankkake: I used to walk past a mcdo every day. it was like 100 meters away, but it was down to the road I was on - it fucking stinked
mircea_popescu: pankkake> I'm not sure it's smell. it's like greasy air << it's the smell. boiled hooves.
pankkake: and since I wasn't brainwashed early, I can't make it past the smell
pankkake: I was one of the few kids that never went to mcdonalds
gribble: World Energy Trilemma - World Energy Council: <http://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/2013-Time-to-get-real-the-agenda-for-change.pdf>; Notification of close period, value programme and household ...: <http://sse.com/newsandviews/allarticles/2014/03/notification-of-close-period,-value-programme-and-household-energy-prices-in-great-britain/>; Full-year results statement - (1 more message)
mircea_popescu: TheNewDeal wasn't it more like 650 ?
gribble: USFDA penalties on Indian pharma cos disproportionate, Anand ...: <http://www.firstbiz.com/corporate/usfda-penalties-indian-pharma-cos-disproportionate-anand-sharma-complains-75841.html>; Issues In Regulating the Price Level - Regulation Body of Knowledge: <http://regulationbodyofknowledge.org/price-level-regulation/issues-in-regulating-the-price-level/>; India says US FDA imposed (1 more message)
benkay: nobody ever accused a bureaucrat of understanding the implications of their actions except maybe mircea_popescu
TheNewDeal: using $615 predrop and $580 current price, the US Marshalls has lost approximately $1 Million USD since their announcement a few hours ago.
davout: the advantage is that everybody knows bc is definitely not faking volume :D
TheNewDeal: sketchy bet made it past the mods http://bitbet.us/bet/901/fifa-world-cup-2014-goal-in-under-10/#c3060
mircea_popescu: you think the guy with the "largest house in north hollywood" is taking a discount because it's so big ?
mircea_popescu: all the best-in-class mansions are overpriced for being best-in-class
davout: mike_c: "you get to mow their lawns for money." <<< or feincoin
mircea_popescu: it can be 11 when it's in the 3k average neighbourhood
mircea_popescu: if people used the noggin, a 10k house in a neighbourhood with 30k average houses would sell for 9 not for 11
mike_c: plus the schools are good (comparatively), etc.
mike_c: you get to mow their lawns for money.
mircea_popescu: what's so ritzy about it ? seems a dorm town like any other
mike_c: then living room/dining room/kitchen/laundry room, etc.
Azelphur: mike_c: never heard that in UK, also we generally have no bathrooms without a shower, usually it's the bath that gets dropped
mike_c: no no, you just pay $10k and live a life of indentured servitude to the bank.
mircea_popescu: The house is listed for sale at $444,900 through Fast Track Real Estate Co. of Waldwick, N.J. Built in 1950, the 1,830 square-foot house has four bedrooms, one and a half bathrooms, a recently-updated kitchen, a garage and an unfinished basement.
davout: pankkake: go introduce yourself in the losers thread i guess
pankkake: why can't you manipulate the price davout :(
mircea_popescu: Apocalyptic that's how 2012 was all around. that's how people like hearn and maxwell ended up with the notion they're useful or whatever.
davout: fluffypony: was looking at usagi's last posts, laughed at the "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar" pic, then i looked at who posted it :D
fluffypony: when that comes up he says he's not writing a web wallet and "you don't even KNOW the stuff I'm writing that's so amazing it'll make the queen's testicles fall off"
fluffypony: Apocalyptic: he told me that *I don't even know* the stuff he's working on, and by trolling *I've messed up and am going to miss out big* on his super-sekrit stuff
TheNewDeal: oh my gosh. 200k is forfeited to the USMS if you don't secure a bid
mircea_popescu: TheNewDeal not bad
jborkl: davout : Usagi came up with the zero risk asset class - class a is owned by class b - class b is owned by class c and class c owns a and b so there is no risk
pankkake: "Cash. The bid must be an all cash offer. Bids that are contingent on financing terms of any kind will not be considered." eh
TheNewDeal: I'm gonna try and promote that one for the next week or so
Apocalyptic: the forum is a cesspool
pankkake: but you know there's a guy with huge green trust that still has posts saying pirate isn't a ponzi
mircea_popescu: <davout> i really don't get the fetish -assets has for this usagi guy << he's diligently stupid and has been for a long time.
pankkake: it's just that usagi is "still there"
davout: i really don't get the fetish -assets has for this usagi guy
pankkake: I thought it was the spoon
davout: pankkake: the guy is vip?
kakobrekla: maybe he knew the window isnt real.
mircea_popescu: <TheNewDeal> I hope the price drops like a rock until that auction then just skyrockets back up << lol
pankkake: well I bought at 480 EUR, hoping to quickly trade it. anothe fail
pankkake: understandable, no one should take their users serisously
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: And through all of this the Marshalls will be powerless to keep the coins from vulgar addresses that have yet to be imagined.
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo it's piss anyway. some us side fund will buy it, sell it to us, then lose the records. usms can suck it.
BingoBoingo: Actual auction dealbreaker "All interested parties must first register with the USMS."
mircea_popescu: burt is kinda putting the elbow grease in huh
mircea_popescu: "BurtW - be honest and say the true, nobody scammed you, you sent to a other address your bitcoins"
mircea_popescu: scammer : here's a link to a list of registered businesses. we're the 5th
mike_c: i hope warren buys them all
kakobrekla: anyway at the rate btc is going this will be pocket money by friday
fluffypony: so they won't transfer it to my 1fuck address?
mircea_popescu: someone warned them about BingoBoingo buying it
mircea_popescu: "The USMS will not transfer bitcoins to an obscene public address, a public address apparently in a country restricted by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), a public address apparently associated with terrorism, other criminal activities, or otherwise hostile to the United States."
kakobrekla: o fuck then we are out.
mike_c: "Transfer Fees. Any transfer fees associated with the transfer of the bitcoins will be paid by the buyer."
bitcoinpete: this sale will provide some of the best price signal in months
kakobrekla: mircea_popescu you mean the bankster ?
kakobrekla: its gonna be the highest bid.
davout: nice dip! x.eur to the moon!
gribble: Bitstamp | This order would exceed the size of the order book. You would buy 18158.097 bitcoins, for a total of 19094927.9273 USD and take the price to 99999.9900. | Data vintage: 45.2129 seconds
gribble: Bitstamp | A market order to sell 29501 bitcoins right now would net 9166242.2850 USD and would take the last price down to 1.4500 USD, resulting in an average price of 310.7095 USD/BTC. | Data vintage: 26.0473 seconds
jborkl: mike_c would you give me your opinion of the blue blocks on bcoinnews
bitcoinpete: "On Monday, June 30, 2014, by 5:00 P.M. EST, the USMS will notify the winning bidder/bidders that their bid/bids has/have been selected."
gribble: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=fluffer | fluffer. (noun) a person in the adult entertainment industry whose job it is to give male porno stars blowjobs in order to get them ready to perform. Where's my ...
davout: floge -> "The hole left behind from a penis piercing" <<< don't forget to floss!
gribble: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Floge | The hole left behind from a penis piercing, a derogatory term for any real douche- bag (man that Matt Damon is such a floge)
kakobrekla: bad paste there sorry.
kakobrekla: and we still pay the 3% daily profit - we are legit
kakobrekla: Apocalyptic , the best forum in the universe (fuck maddox yeah) many hater here but our statistic say all:
fluffypony: then you can use your SafeFluffs to trade on Fluffmade
kakobrekla: and we still pay the 3% daily profit - we are legit
fluffypony: bitcoinpete: why not IPO the IPO right now?
assbot: NASA's real life Enterprise may take us to other star systems one day
assbot: Harrison Ford Injured on the 'Star Wars: Episode VII' Set - Hollywood Reporter
BingoBoingo: The meta-game of trying to call Tommy Johns surgeries well in advance is also an interesting game.
BingoBoingo: At least it isn't the traditional Philadelphia throwing of batteries.
BingoBoingo: Delay of game is another one of those things called too infrequently. By the book the pitcher has 12 seconds to unload the ball
Apocalyptic: then he's allowed to do whatever he wants
Apocalyptic: los_pantalones, note that he can properly pull out of the pitching motion
BingoBoingo: All of the great completely subjective calls live in baseball
los_pantalones: it's the most subjective call in most sports
los_pantalones: but then stops
BingoBoingo: fluffypony: Now on Friday one of the actually rare triple plays happened, though no the still rarer unassisted version http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2014/06/06/cardinals-turn-triple-play/10109459/
fluffypony: los_pantalones: that throw was insane, I couldn't believe the distance it covered, and it looked like such a lazy lob
mike_c: the new price chart is awesome. i <3 atc.blockr.io
fluffypony: BingoBoingo: I saw a great baseball play a few days ago - huge hit into outfield, outfielder duffs the catch (bounces off his glove), has this brief moment of confusion before running after it and lobbing it all the way back to home base, and the batter is run out. Now I can't find it. Jog any memories?
davout: pankkake: granted i get access to some additionnal derpage in the form of access to the "staff" section
davout: pankkake: "it comes with a special status" <<< a mod in a local section of the forum isn't much more than a glorified janitor
mircea_popescu: princessnell shouldn't they be accounted ?
benkay: so this is why the peso isn't doomed.
princessnell: there's a ton more subsidies that aren't counted
assbot: hey look what i made. pretty cool huh. - Mystery of the Mundane
benkay: princessnell: is http://thecurioustask.tumblr.com/post/88526387754/hey-look-what-i-made-pretty-cool-huh this a chart of how much the various countries are subsidizing exports?
assbot: Loper OS » A Country of Which Nothing is Known but the Name.
asciilifeform: this, one should note, is when they're 'flying the mahogany bomber.' in the field, these folks have ancient hardware that does something like civilized crypto
BingoBoingo: Approving the Billy Hamilton bet was a mistake. There's no attractive reason to go in on yes, even as a longshot. He's fast whis is exciting, but fast doesn't win any "of the year" awards.
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform i dunno how someone could seriously propose they're a chief justice and not gpg sign
assbot: Paddington - Official Trailer - The Weinstein Company - YouTube
mircea_popescu: im going to make sure and raise this objection to the us supreme court's competence in any case before it, that it is unqualified to sit as a court because it scams with its published decisions.
mircea_popescu: in other news, http://37.media.tumblr.com/512146b35c62c25752e0aead1faa9b61/tumblr_n5wvm5AW7p1s9e2ofo1_500.jpg
mircea_popescu: meanwhile a message from the queen
only: mircea_popescu nope, sorry, am reading them right now
mircea_popescu: only read the logs ?
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mircea_popescu: it is perhaps true, in that they've been mining like crazy
mircea_popescu: TomServo its neither common knowledge nor actually ever documented
TomServo: It should be noted that the FBI has a lot of bitcoins to sell. In addition to drug-tainted Silk Road coins, the FBI has a much bigger stash: an estimate from Casey Research puts the figure between 5% and 10% of all bitcoins in circulation.
asciilifeform: chetty: about as interesting, imho, as... the death of andropov
princessnell: i don't think there's much hope but i always enjoy when the lizards have to scramble http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-11/boeing-tumbles-as-cantor-loss-clouds-ex-im-bank-s-future.html
chetty: first time in history that a 'party leader' lost in a primary, maybe there is hope for the ussa
jurov: lol i read the link as "loses gpg primary"
assbot: Log In - The New York Times
asciilifeform: mircea_popescu: ajahaha poorpeople << still not convinced that this fascinating 'poverty of the spirit' has much to do with money
jurov: can't you at least make the link bluish?
mircea_popescu: "I have no interest at all in shooting 4K for adult. It's all I can do to make some of these models look good in "HD". It's way too much definition for some girls"
gribble slaps kakobrekla with a parenthetical clay
jurov: and thus, "it's in the logs" meme was born.
mircea_popescu: may smpoe report will come june with the june report
mircea_popescu: so from now on, sports bets will end at 10k, and close after the event.
mircea_popescu: but NOT if they're 1/100000
mircea_popescu: consider our case. bet is made on 1st. weight is 100k. if someone puts 10 btc on it then, it's sealed.
benkay: mine has the links to my few good ideas
assbot: Clever boy! Dogs prefer to EARN treats by solving problems, rather than receiving handouts | Mail Online
kakobrekla: not all end the same day as it is now
mircea_popescu: give people a fucking chance with the bets clearing
mircea_popescu: los_pantalones there.
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla hey listen, we take the close date on the recent WC batch from 24th to 26th ?
los_pantalones: sweet, the existing WC events will be adjusted
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla of which 201 arefrom the cointoss